Issue #23 - Winning the Close Calls: Unlocking your Team's Edge
As the fall months roll in, the world of sports is busy. The World Series wraps up, football is in full swing, European soccer leagues (or “futbol”) have us screaming at our screens, and basketball and hockey seasons begin. It seems like more than a coincidence that this all aligns with the fourth quarter of the year.
In my industry, it’s also a time to lock in our operational plans and prepare to deliver on our promises to execute measurable outcomes for our customers. Rather than simply wondering how strong our strategy is, I started thinking about how some teams in sports—and in business—manage to tip the ‘50-50 ball’ in their favor, repeatedly finding ways to win those close calls. For clarity, think of a 50-50 ball as any situation with an even outcome, where either side could come out on top. Yet certain teams and players—like the Kansas City Chiefs, for example—seem to make winning those close games a habit. At the time of writing, they’re undefeated at 8-0, with six of those wins coming by one touchdown or less. So, what does it take to come out on top more than half the time, to consistently win just one more time? I became intrigued with the idea of whether there’s a way, as leaders, to will ourselves from a toss-up to being just a click above average.
Exploring this question led me to Gary Klein’s book, Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights. I’m about a quarter of the way through, but already I’ve found three big takeaways that can give you and your team a subtle yet powerful edge. Since we’re close to the end of the year, I’ll break this series into three sections over the next few newsletters:
The idea behind Strategic Anticipation and Pattern Recognition is that high performers develop an advanced ability to spot patterns, anticipating outcomes before they fully unfold. We build these skills through experience and a refined sense of observation. Much like a seasoned negotiator who knows when to push forward or a project manager who sees early signs of potential risks, strong leaders have a knack for anticipation and stay a step ahead in even-odds situations. But how do we scale this ability to see the big picture early?
For those of us who’ve had exposure to various roles, projects, or industries, pattern recognition has become second nature. Our ability to sense trends, anticipate risks, and make decisions based on a deep understanding of interconnected factors can lead to significant outcomes. But what about team members who haven’t yet developed this skill? Building this muscle across the team is essential, and there are practical ways to do so. The basics are cross-functional experiences and analyzing past decisions… if you’ve gotten this far in the reading, I’ll assume you’re familiar with those.
The more time-consuming component that generates the highest yield is creating an environment that encourages curiosity and questions assumptions. Are you creating an environment that engages your team intellectually with the organization’s objectives? Pushing your team to ask questions or cold-calling for insight creates a competitive edge. Done well, this approach builds a deeper sense of responsibility, commitment, and quickly reveals whether your team can scale with the leadership requirements of your organization. By cultivating a culture that values curiosity and exploration, leaders create opportunities for team members to identify and internalize patterns over time.
As leaders, we also need to embrace real-time mentorship through “thinking aloud.” People listen when you speak—use that voice to teach. If an experienced leader articulates their thought processes in real time, they model how to approach complex problems and connect seemingly disparate pieces of information. This “thinking aloud” approach gives teammates insight into the mental models and frameworks that explain how to connect information, weigh options, and foresee potential outcomes. Over time, they can apply this thinking process to their own work, strengthening their confidence and decision-making abilities in uncertain situations.
We’re all sharpening our tools so we can build something special in the coming year. Those small, incremental advantages—like winning just one more 50-50 ball out of ten—might not seem like much at first, but they add up fast. Improving from 5/10 to 6/10 on even odds means you’ve boosted your relative performance by 20%. That’s the kind of edge that doesn’t just win games; it changes the whole playing field.
So, as we gear up, consider this as one step towards priming next year to not just be a good one, but a game-changing one.
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