Issue #2: What the world’s smallest country teaches us about overtourism

Welcome to the second issue of Bayesian Thinking!

What is Bayesian Thinking? Read the boilerplate below the article.

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What can you tell me about the last foreign place you visited?

How did it make you feel, and what did it teach you?

Among selfie sticks, tour leader flags, and a hodgepodge of languages, I found more people glued to their phones than trying to decipher the characters in The School of Athens.

Amid the post-COVID travel boom, my tour guide said Raphael’s Renaissance fresco, along with Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel Ceiling, draws nearly 40,000 visitors to the world’s smallest country daily. But how many Vatican visitors are passively herded through the sights in the country’s 0.19 square miles, and how many are fully engaged with what they are experiencing? This is what I wondered as I put my phone away to absorb my surroundings.

If each daily visitor takes only one photo of The School of Athens, my educated estimate (thanks ChatGPT) is that it could equal 402GB of data and 1.34 metric tons of CO2 per year if stored on the cloud. The reality is the average person is taking at least 50 photos.

The amount of data humans produce — whether as digital photos of famous works of art or what they ate for dinner — is growing exponentially. When it comes to tourism, the issue isn't only that people aren't fully experiencing what they're visiting, but they're also adding to the climate crisis while out seeing the world.?

Living in Europe, I travel more than I did in the US. During the last month, I visited seven cities, including tourist hotspots like Rome and Florence. I do take photos, mostly with my analog camera, and I’m aware of the carbon footprint of flights and try to make up for it by taking the train even when it lengthens the travel time. My best experiences are when I study about the place I’m visiting in advance and then spend time with the camera put away.

Looking at The School of Athens, I wondered what Socrates, Aristotle, and Plato would think about our world in an era of “Revenge Tourism” — the post-COVID rush of people wanting to get out of their daily routine and find a new perspective. “If it isn’t on Instagram, it didn’t happen” is an adage that people might joke about but holds some truth.

Learn the secrets of Raphael's The School of Athens in 5 minutes!

Like other Instagrammable places in Italy, the Vatican is trying to do its part to increase sustainability despite the tourist throngs. It has said it aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. It has eliminated single-use plastics and composts waste for its gardens. Picking up the trinkets in the gift shop, I was surprised that most everything was made in Europe.

Venice has announced that it will limit tourists by charging an entry fee for visitors not staying overnight. Pompeii, swarmed with a train line running directly from Rome, has closed a significant portion of its houses to visitors to prevent damage to its volcanic-preserved city, trying to balance tourism with preservation.

The swift Italy itinerary of Florence, Venice, and Rome in a week or less could be replaced with second cities or slow travel. There’s no doubt that travel, that’s more about spending time with people and their culture than seeing famous landmarks, is more sustainable.?

As Roman Krznaric writes in How Should We Live? Great Ideas from the Past for Everyday Life:

Japanese poet Bashō would advise us not to plan the routes of our travels too carefully [no guidebooks and no organized tours] and even to throw away the map if we are brave enough. He would surely say that getting lost [while looking at a fresco or finding your way around the streets of Rome] is the best way to find yourself and that new perspective.?

As you walk through a new place on your journey, allow the sun to guide you or follow curious smells or unusual sounds, using your senses as a compass. And definitely, put away your phone.

What is Bayesian Thinking?

Each of us has a spectrum of beliefs across many topics and perspectives. From 18th-century British philosopher Thomas Bayes, Bayesian Thinking is a compass guiding us closer to the truth.?

Bayesian theory includes:

1) Refrain from attributing absolute certainty to any belief.

2) Remain open to adjusting convictions based on new evidence.

With this mindset, I’ll share my take on current events, impactful ideas, and sustainability, in this bi-monthly LinkedIn newsletter.

Why sustainability? At work, I spend my time helping companies engage stakeholders in order to reach Net Zero with AWorld. On weekends, you’ll find me climbing around the Alps, maybe with a camera or drone in tow.

Here's some more about me and the things I do.

Amid the information age, I’m grateful for the technology that lets us connect with people worldwide. Hopefully, tech will also help solve the climate crisis.

-Rick