Issue 14. The US Elections.

The hottest topic of the year: The U.S. election. For weeks, we've been bombarded with daily stats trying to tell us who’s in the lead. At first, Trump seemed way ahead. Then came Kamala Harris’s nomination, and suddenly the tables started to turn. Now, on Election Day, it’s a nail-biter, with both sides neck and neck.

One thing to keep in mind: Truly independent polls are rare in the U.S. Most of them lean one way or another - either influenced by the Republicans or the Democrats. Sure, there are ratings to help judge their credibility, but even with that, you’ve got to take it all with a grain of salt.

At the same time, solid analyses are coming in since early voting and mail-in ballots are already underway, and voters are registered by party affiliation. That means there are three main camps: Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

Battleground Sate Pennsylvania: Over 1.8 million votes have already been cast here. According to voter registrations, Democrats currently hold a lead of more than 400,000 votes. Analysts believe this “firewall”- or the lead before Election Day - needs to be at least 400,000 votes for Democrats to have a shot at winning. On Election Day itself, Republicans traditionally come out stronger. This was the case in the last two elections in which Trump ran. However, this year, Trump hasn’t actively discouraged early voting and has even urged people to vote early. Plus, the special COVID-related voting patterns from 2020 won’t be a factor this time around.

If you want the latest updates and the best ways to follow the election live, here’s the final scoop before the big showdown:

1. Fivethirtyeight: Polls & Forecast

A great overview of the election polls and resulting forecasts, complete with interactive maps for each state.

Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

2. 270toWin: Forecast & Projections

Map overview for every state with options to play around with different scenarios and see their impact on the overall outcome.

Link: https://www.270towin.com/

3. Politico: Swing State Results

If the election is close, the swing states will make all the difference. Right now, Pennsylvania is considered the must-win state for an overall victory. Politico has a special section just for these key states, complete with live results on election night.

Link: https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/swing-states/

4. ABC News: Election Live Results

ABC News is considered one of the most trusted news sources in the U.S. If you want to follow everything live at a glance, this is probably a good choice. But you'll also find excellent coverage from The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Economist, and many others. Just keep in mind that some results might be behind a paywall or require registration.

Link: https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/

5. Polymarket & Kalshi: Be careful with betting!

Polymarket and Kalshi are innovative betting platforms that allow users to place wagers using cryptocurrencies, among other payment options. There were indications that a few major accounts had placed substantial bets on Trump during that time. This raises the possibility that the betting activity may be more about shaping public perception than about predicting real outcomes.

Interestingly, the odds for both candidates have started to align again, yet they don’t accurately reflect the broader landscape of the polls—where Donald Trump isn’t showing a clear advantage. It’s a fascinating dynamic that highlights the intersection of betting markets and public opinion!

And there’s already a result! Traditionally, it comes from Dixville Notch in New Hampshire ;-)

Inspired by data! will be published every first Tuesday a month at 12pm CET (next one on Dec 3rd)

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