(Issue #11): Navigating Economic Impacts on Career Decisions
Rattanbir Singh
A Veteran; An Educationist committed to Advocacy and Inclusivism and a Trainer of Leaders
Establishing The Context
AIM OF THE NEWSLETTER
1.??? The aim of this newsletter is to assist people in navigating the dynamic, technology driven, globally impacted, job market of the present times. It will offer practical advice and insights on every aspect, ranging from the basics of career planning, skill development and crisis-driven transitions to cultural influences on the job market as well as its? future trends.
2.??? Designed for working professionals of all ages and seniorities, the Newsletter will cover all challenges? from? resume building to navigating international job opportunities, besides offering suggestions for stress management arising from emotional upheavals connected with job or career change.
3.??? Emphasizing continuous career development, “The Transition Toolkit" will endeavour to equip its readers with the ability to adapt and thrive in the ever-changing nature of the? workforce and thereby empower its members to traverse life’s journey with the help? of a rewarding and fulfilling career.
OBJECTIVES OF PART – I
4.??? The first part of the newsletter, “Introduction and Basic Concepts”, will deal with basic concepts related to jobs and careers and its primary focus will be on new entrants who want to grasp the foundational principles essential for navigating a changing career landscape. This section is all about setting up the groundwork for career planning and understanding the importance of adapting to change.
5.??? In that sense, it can also serve as a useful checklist for career counsellors and guides to augment their advisory services or enlarge the sphere of their clientele. In today's global economy, career paths are no longer linear, but resemble a maze of intersecting and sometimes diverging, opportunities and challenges.
RECAP OF PREVIOUS ARTICLE : ”Managing Emotional Aspects in Career Transitions ”
6. Issue #10 of the newsletter, titled "Managing Emotional Aspects in Career Transitions," explored the crucial role of emotional intelligence and management in navigating career changes. It emphasized that understanding and managing one's emotions effectively during such transitions was not only essential for the individual's success, but also beneficial for potential employers and HR personnel involved. The article highlighted that emotional intelligence included self-awareness which helped individuals recognize their emotions and corresponding triggers and thereby facilitated self-regulation to control disruptive emotions and adapt to changes. Furthermore, it explained how empathy played a vital role in enhancing interpersonal interactions during networking and interviews as it was highly valued by employers.
7. .The article also delved into various strategies and support systems crucial for managing emotional responses during career transitions effectively. It outlined the typical emotional stages associated with career changes, akin to the stages of grief such as denial, fear, frustration, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance, which led to hope and new and the drive to search for new possibilities. It discussed the importance of emotional resilience and offered practical tips for developing this quality, such as viewing challenges as opportunities, setting realistic goals and maintaining a positive attitude. Support systems such as professional counselling, peer groups and family, were also highlighted as essential for ?providing the emotional stability necessary for successful transitions. Through this comprehensive exploration, the article aimed to equip readers with insights and tools to harness their emotional strengths and effectively manage the emotional challenges of career transitions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
A REAFFIRMATION : To Repeat is to Reinforce!
“Before I conclude, I want to admit that readers in senior positions might find some points reiterated, potentially adding to the article's length. This repetition is intentional, as the Newsletter aims to offer value to people at all levels in the workspace. Therefore, I request their indulgence for the sake of the lesser experienced and suggest that speed reading techniques be used to navigate through these sections to save time.
Additionally, there may be certain aspects of transitioning that I plan to cover in future articles, but some readers might need immediate guidance on them. As subscribers, please feel free to send me a direct message with your queries? about those aspects and I will gladly respond, offering my inputs? as a pro-bono gesture.”
Note: The author declares that he does not have any financial arrangements or affiliations with any of the companies or websites mentioned in any part or article of his newsletter and hence the opinions expressed by him are based on his personal experience / personal research only.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
INTRODUCTION
SIGNIFICANCE OF ECONOMIC FACTORS
8. . In the realm of career planning and transitions, economic conditions play a critical role in shaping decisions and strategies. The labour market's dynamics, influenced by factors such as inflation, unemployment rates and economic growth, significantly impact both individual career paths and organizational hiring practices. During periods of economic boom, job opportunities tend to expand, giving individuals the flexibility to explore new roles or negotiate better terms. Conversely, recessions can tighten job markets, causing both job seekers and those considering career transitions to proceed with caution.
9. Understanding these economic factors is essential for both employees and employers. For individuals, it means aligning career aspirations with realistic expectations of the job market. For employers, it necessitates strategic planning in workforce management and development to adapt to economic cycles. This dual perspective ensures that both parties can make informed decisions that are responsive to economic realities, thereby mitigating risks associated with economic downturns and capitalizing on opportunities during economic upswings.
SCOPE OF THE ARTICLE
10. This article aims to dissect the myriad ways in which economic factors influence career decisions. We will explore several key economic elements that are pivotal in shaping the job landscape, including:
a)??? Economic Cycles and Employment Rates: How different phases of an economic cycle – expansion, peak, contraction and trough – affect employment opportunities and job security.
b)??? Industry Growth and Decline: Understanding which sectors thrive during different types of economic conditions can guide individuals in choosing stable and growing fields.
c)??? Geographical Economic Variations: Regional economic health can influence job availability and types, which is crucial for those considering relocation for career advancement.
d)??? Technological Advancements and Automation: How technological changes driven by economic factors can lead to shifts in the demand for certain job roles.
11. By examining these areas, the article will provide insights into how job seekers and HR professionals can strategically approach career planning and recruitment, respectively. The goal is to equip readers with the knowledge to make proactive, informed career choices that are attuned to the economic environment, enhancing personal career resilience and organizational stability.
UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC TRENDS
GLOBAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
12. In today's interconnected world, global economic conditions have a profound impact on the job market all across the globe. Recent trends show fluctuations in areas like trade, technology and investment flows, which significantly affect job availability and quality. For instance, a surge in technology investments often leads to an increase in tech-related jobs, but it may also result in job displacement in more traditional sectors due to automation and digital transformation.
13. For job seekers and HR professionals, staying informed about these trends is crucial. They not only indicate where new opportunities might be emerging, but also indicate the skills that will be in demand. Therefore, adapting to these global economic shifts is essential for maintaining career relevancy. Employers, on the other hand, need to align their talent acquisition and development strategies in line with these trends to secure a competitive edge in attracting and retaining skilled workers.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
14. While global trends provide the big picture, regional economic conditions paint the local landscape of job markets. Different regions may experience unique economic climates due to factors like government policies, resource availability and demographic changes. For example, areas rich in natural resources might see a booming job market in mining and energy sectors when commodity prices are high. Conversely, regions dependent on manufacturing might struggle if global manufacturing slows down.
15. For individuals, understanding the economic conditions of their region can guide smarter career decisions – like whether to seek opportunities locally or relocate for better prospects. Employers must consider these regional nuances to tailor their HR strategies effectively, ensuring they meet local economic challenges and opportunities head-on.
16. Both global and regional economic trends underline the need for agility and continuous learning in career management. By monitoring these trends, both job seekers and HR professionals can better navigate the ever-evolving job landscape, making informed decisions that align with the current economic environment.
ANALYSING INDUSTRY HEALTH
SECTOR-SPECIFIC TRENDS
17. Different industries respond uniquely to economic cycles, with some sectors showing resilience during downturns and others thriving during economic booms. For instance, consumer staples, healthcare and utilities typically hold steady during recessions because they provide essential services that remain in demand regardless of economic conditions. On the other hand, luxury goods and non-essential services often see a decline during economic hardships as consumers cut back on spending.
18. For those navigating career transitions, it's crucial to understand these sector-specific trends. This knowledge can help in making informed decisions about which industries may offer more stability and opportunities, depending on the current economic climate. It also aids employers in strategizing their hiring needs, focusing on sectors that are likely to see growth or stability based on economic indicators.
IDENTIFYING GROWTH SECTORS
19. To identify sectors that are poised for growth, it's important to look at current economic drivers, technological advancements and consumer trends. For example, the tech industry continues to grow due to advancements in AI, blockchain and remote work technologies. Similarly, the green energy sector is expanding rapidly, driven by a global push toward sustainability and renewable energy sources. Strategies for pinpointing these growth sectors include:
a) Market Research: Staying updated with market reports and forecasts can provide insights into which sectors are expected to grow.
b) Skill Alignment: Identifying which of your skills can be transferred to these growing industries, can open up new career opportunities.
c) Networking: Engaging with professionals in desired sectors provides insider knowledge on industry health and job openings.
20. By analysing industry health through these lenses, individuals can strategically position themselves in sectors with favourable growth prospects, while employers can better align their workforce planning with industry trajectories. This proactive approach is crucial in a dynamic economic environment, ensuring that career and hiring strategies are not only Proactive but also predictive.
ECONOMIC RECESSION AND CAREER STABILITY
RISKS OF RECESSION
21. Economic recessions pose significant risks to career stability, impacting job security, salary growth, and employment opportunities across various sectors. During a downturn, companies often implement cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, hiring freezes and reduced hours or salaries, which can disrupt career plans and delay professional growth. Additionally, sectors sensitive to economic fluctuations, like construction, retail and hospitality, may experience higher volatility, leading to increased job insecurity.
22. For individuals considering a career change during a recession, it is crucial to understand these risks. Switching industries or roles during uncertain economic times can result in unexpected challenges, such as longer job searches, reduced negotiation leverage on job offers and a need for rapid upskilling to fit into new roles that are still hiring.
STRATEGIES FOR STABILITY
23. In times of economic uncertainty, prioritizing career stability becomes essential. Here are some strategies to help navigate career decisions during economic downturns:
a) Skill Diversification: Enhancing your skill set to include competencies that are in demand across various industries can provide a safety net. Skills in digital literacy, data analysis, and remote communication are often valuable regardless of the economic climate.
b) Industry Research: Before making a career change, research which industries are recession-proof or are currently growing despite economic challenges. Industries like healthcare, IT and consumer goods often remain stable or even grow during downturns.
c) Financial Planning: Building a financial buffer can provide you with the flexibility to make career decisions without the immediate pressure of financial hardship. This includes saving for an emergency fund that covers at least six months of living expenses.
d) Networking: Strengthening professional networks can open up more opportunities through referrals and insider information on job openings. Networking can also provide support and advice from peers who might be experiencing similar challenges.
e) Temporary Opportunities: Consider temporary or contract roles, which can be more plentiful during recessions as companies may prefer these to full-time hiring. These roles can provide income, experience and potential stepping stones to permanent positions.
24. By incorporating these strategies, individuals can make more informed and cautious career decisions, prioritizing stability and long-term growth over immediate gains, which might be riskier in unstable economic periods. Employers too can benefit from understanding these dynamics as they plan their workforce strategies to retain talent and maintain productivity during economic downturns.
LEVERAGING ECONOMIC DATA IN CAREER PLANNING
DATA SOURCES
25. In today's data-driven world, having access to reliable economic data is crucial for making informed career decisions. Several key sources provide valuable insights into market trends, employment rates, industry growth and economic forecasts, which can significantly impact career planning. Here are some primary sources of economic data:
a) Government Agencies: Institutions like the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Statistics Canada, or the Office for National Statistics (UK) or the Employment Exchanges of India, offer extensive data on employment trends, wage averages and industry growth. These agencies provide comprehensive and regularly updated reports that are crucial for understanding the economic environment.
b) Industry Reports: Many private companies and industry associations publish detailed reports and forecasts about specific sectors. For instance, the McKinsey Global Institute and Gartner, offer in-depth industry analyses that can highlight emerging opportunities and risks.
c) Economic Journals and Publications: Publications such as The Economist, Bloomberg Businessweek and Harvard Business Review etc discuss broader economic trends and their implications for the workforce.
d) Online Data Platforms: Websites like Statista, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide global economic data that can help in comparing different regional economies and markets.
26. Utilizing these sources helps job seekers and HR professionals gauge the health of various industries and the economy at large, aiding in strategic career planning and organizational development.
APPLYING DATA
27. Using economic data effectively requires more than just access to information; it involves analysing this data to make strategic career moves. Here are some practical examples of how individuals can use economic data to enhance their career planning:
a) Identifying Industry Trends: Economic reports can reveal which industries are poised for growth and which are declining. For example, if data shows a strong growth trajectory in the renewable energy sector, a professional might consider acquiring skills in this area or transitioning from a stagnating field like fossil fuels.
b) Regional Analysis: Economic data can also inform decisions about where to pursue career opportunities. High employment rates and wages in a particular region may motivate a relocation to take advantage of better job prospects.
c) Risk Assessment: Understanding economic cycles can help in assessing the risk associated with career changes. For instance, entering a startup in a booming economy might be less risky compared to a recession period when securing venture capital could be challenging.
d) Skill Demand Analysis: Data on skills in demand can guide education and training decisions. If data indicates a growing demand for AI and machine learning expertise, investing in relevant courses or certifications could significantly improve employment prospects.
28. By effectively leveraging economic data, professionals can not only make more informed career decisions but also position themselves favourably within the job market, adapting to its shifts and needs dynamically. This strategic approach empowers them to navigate their career paths proactively, ensuring alignment with both current market conditions and future trends.
FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
BUDGETING FOR TRANSITION
29. Financial planning is critical when navigating career changes, especially during times of economic instability. Effective budgeting can provide the financial security needed to transition smoothly without undue stress. Here are some strategies to consider:
a) Emergency Savings: Before making any career changes, ensure you have an emergency fund that can cover your living expenses for at least six months. This fund acts as a safety net during periods of unemployment or while you are in the process of securing a new position.
b) Analysing Costs and Benefits: Evaluate the financial implications of any potential career move. Consider costs such as additional training, potential relocation and the possibility of a gap in earnings. Weigh these against the long-term benefits, such as increased earning potential and job satisfaction.
c) Adjusting Lifestyle Choices: Temporarily adjusting your lifestyle to reduce expenditures can make financial sense during a career transition. Cutting back on non-essential spending can free up resources for professional development and job search activities.
d) Planning for Contingencies: Have a plan in place for unexpected expenses during the transition period. This could involve setting aside a specific part of your budget for unforeseen costs like health emergencies or immediate travel needs related to new job opportunities.
INVESTMENT IN SKILLS
30. In an ever-evolving job market, investing in the right skills can significantly enhance your employability and career growth. Economic trends can guide which skills are most likely to yield returns. Here are considerations for identifying valuable skills to invest in:
a) Market Demand: Pay attention to job market trends and projections. Skills in high demand in growing industries, such as data analytics, cybersecurity and renewable energy technologies, are likely to offer better career opportunities.
b) Adaptability and Future-proofing: Focus on skills that are versatile and applicable across various industries. Digital literacy, project management and emotional intelligence, are examples of skills that enhance adaptability and resilience in the workplace.
领英推荐
c) Return on Investment (ROI): Assess the potential ROI of learning new skills or advancing your education. Consider the cost of training programs or courses relative to the potential increase in salary or job prospects they can provide.
d) Lifelong Learning: Embrace a mindset of continuous improvement and learning. Engage in ongoing education and professional development to stay competitive in the job market. This includes formal education, online courses, workshops, and conferences.
31. By carefully considering these financial strategies and skill investments, professionals can navigate career transitions more confidently and successfully, even in uncertain economic times. These actions not only prepare you financially but also ensure you are continually adapting to the demands of the global job market, securing your career progression in the long term.
CASE STUDIES
CASE STUDY 1 : COLOMBIA - JUAN NAVIGATES A CAREER SHIFT DURING ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COLOMBIAN COFFEE INDUSTRY
Situation: Juan, a seasoned agronomist, had spent over a decade in Colombia's coffee industry when sudden economic downturns threatened job security. Facing dwindling opportunities and unstable market prices, he needed to pivot to sustain his income and career growth.
Action: Juan decided to leverage his extensive knowledge of agriculture to transition into the burgeoning field of sustainable agriculture practices. He invested in a certification course on sustainable technologies and began networking with professionals in this niche.
Result: Within six months, Juan secured a position as a sustainability consultant for a multinational corporation looking to improve its environmental footprint in Latin America. His role not only paid better but also offered greater job stability.
Common Pitfalls: Many of Juan's peers remained in declining sectors without seeking new qualifications or exploring other industries, leading to career stagnation or layoffs.
Lesson Learned: Proactively adapting to market demands and expanding one’s skill set in anticipation of industry shifts can lead to new and more stable career opportunities.
CASE STUDY 2: INDIA - PRIYA'S STRATEGIC MOVE FROM IT TO DIGITAL MARKETING AMIDST THE TECH BOOM IN BENGALURU
Situation: Priya, an IT support specialist in Bangalore, noticed a saturation in her field with increasing automation and outsourcing reducing job opportunities.
Action: Observing the explosive growth in digital marketing driven by India's digital transformation, Priya enrolled in a digital marketing bootcamp, learned the latest SEO and social media strategies, and built a personal portfolio online.
Result: Priya landed a job at a top digital marketing firm, significantly increased her salary, and found her new role more creative and fulfilling.
Common Pitfalls: Colleagues who did not anticipate technological impacts on the IT sector soon found themselves in less secure positions or were forced to accept roles outside their expertise at lower pays.
Lesson Learned: Keeping an eye on emerging trends and being willing to transition into new fields can ensure continuous career growth and satisfaction.
CASE STUDY 3 : ARGENTINA - CARLOS ENHANCES CAREER RESILIENCE BY SWITCHING FROM MANUFACTURING TO SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT IN BUENOS AIRES
Situation: Carlos, a manufacturing technician in Buenos Aires, faced job insecurity as the local manufacturing sector contracted due to economic instability and increased automation.
Action: Carlos decided to switch careers to software development, a sector showing robust growth in Argentina. He took online courses in coding and software development after work hours and started freelancing to build a portfolio.
Result: Carlos successfully transitioned to a full-time software developer role at a leading tech firm, enjoying a more stable job environment and better career prospects.
Common Pitfalls: Many of Carlos’s peers remained passive, hoping the manufacturing sector would recover, only to find themselves out of work or in declining career paths.
Lesson Learned: Transitioning to high-growth industries through skill development and practical experience can significantly improve job security and career longevity.
CASE STUDY 4 : NEW ZEALAND - HELEN ADAPTS TO RENEWABLE ENERGY TRENDS TO ADVANCE HER ENGINEERING CAREER IN AUCKLAND
Situation: Helen, an electrical engineer in Auckland, recognized the potential decline in traditional energy sectors and the rising demand for renewable energy solutions.
Action: She pursued a specialization in renewable energy systems through advanced courses and actively participated in renewable energy projects to gain practical experience.
Result: Helen secured a project manager position in a leading renewable energy firm, where she now leads initiatives for solar and wind energy projects, aligning her career with sustainable development goals.
Common Pitfalls: Engineers sticking solely to their initial fields without adapting to new industry trends often missed out on growth opportunities in emerging sectors.
Lesson Learned: Timely skill upgrades and aligning one’s career with global sustainability trends can lead to significant professional advancements and societal impact.
CASE STUDY 5: SWEDEN - MIA AND LUKAS COLLABORATE ON A START-UP VENTURE AMIDST SWEDEN'S THRIVING START-UP ECOSYSTEM
Situation: Mia, a marketing expert, and Lukas, a product developer, both experienced professionals in large corporations, decided to tap into Sweden's vibrant start-up scene by launching an eco-friendly packaging solution.
Action: They combined their expertise to develop a business plan, secured funding through various start-up grants, and utilized Sweden's supportive ecosystem for innovation.
Result: Their start-up successfully launched with substantial early adoption and interest from major retail chains, leading to rapid growth and scaling potential.
Common Pitfalls: Other entrepreneurs often underestimated the need for a diverse skill set and robust network, leading to challenges in getting their start-ups off the ground.
Lesson Learned: A well-rounded team with complementary skills and a strategic approach to leveraging local resources can significantly enhance the success rates of entrepreneurial ventures in a competitive ecosystem.
CASE STUDY 6 : GHANA - AMA AND KWAME DIVERSIFY THEIR AGRICULTURAL BUSINESS DURING ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
Situation: Ama and Kwame, partners in a traditional cocoa farming business, faced volatile markets and economic uncertainty threatening their livelihood.
Action: They diversified their agricultural practices by introducing organic crops and initiating eco-tourism on their farm to attract international visitors interested in sustainable agriculture.
Result: Their diversified business model not only stabilized their income but also attracted international grants for sustainable farming practices, securing their financial future.
Common Pitfalls: Farmers who failed to diversify or adapt to market changes often suffered financially during periods of economic downturn.
Lesson Learned: Diversifying business offerings and adapting to niche markets can provide stability and growth opportunities, even in traditionally volatile sectors like agriculture.
CONCLUSION
SUMMARIZING ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
32. In navigating the complexities of career transitions, the significance of understanding economic impacts cannot be overstated. Throughout this article, we've explored how global and regional economic trends influence job markets; emphasised on the importance of adapting to industry health and recognising the value of leveraging economic data in making informed career decisions. Whether it's planning for stability during economic recessions, or identifying growth sectors for investment in skills, these economic strategies provide a foundation for resilient career planning.
33. Incorporating this understanding into your career development efforts ensures that your decisions are not only responsive to current conditions, but also proactive in anticipating future economic changes. By doing so, you enhance your adaptability and increase your chances of achieving sustained career success and satisfaction.
LOOKING AHEAD
34. As we conclude our exploration of basic concepts in this first phase of "The Transition Toolkit: Mastering Job & Career Changes," we prepare to dive deeper into the specific tools and strategies that can further empower your career development. In the upcoming Phase – II ?titled "Skill Development and Legal Aspects," we will shift our focus from broad economic considerations to more targeted discussions on how to develop the skills necessary for today’s dynamic job market and also understand the legal aspects that usually affect career transitions.
35. Expect to uncover actionable insights on upskilling and reskilling that are important for adapting to technological advancements and market demands. We will also delve into the legalities of job changes, providing you with the knowledge to navigate these challenges smoothly. In other words, the next phase is designed to empower you with knowledge about practical skills and legal parameters thereby enhancing your ability to manage your career proactively in any economic climate.
36. Stay tuned as we continue our journey, providing you with the tools and knowledge to not just survive but thrive in the ever-changing world of work.
NAVIGATION AND ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
REVIEW OF PAST ARTICLES:
?
RECOMMENDED FURTHER READING
i.)??? "The Economics of Labor Markets" by Bruce Kaufman and Julie Hotchkiss
(A comprehensive textbook that provides a detailed analysis of labor market theories and real-world applications, ideal for understanding how economic conditions affect employment trends.)
ii.)? "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" by Thomas Piketty
(This seminal work offers an extensive study on wealth and income inequality, providing insights into long-term economic trends that influence career opportunities and decisions.)
iii.)???????? "Outliers: The Story of Success" by Malcolm Gladwell
(Gladwell explores the various factors that contribute to high levels of success, including economic backgrounds and market opportunities, offering valuable perspectives for career strategists.)
iv.)???????? "Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions" by Dan Ariely
(This book delves into behavioural economics and helps readers understand how irrational behaviours can impact career decisions, particularly under economic pressures.)
v.)? "Who Gets What — and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design" by Alvin E. Roth
(Roth explains how economic principles apply to job markets and the importance of matching skills with job requirements, crucial for making informed career transitions.)
vi.)???????? "The Great Jobs Without a College Degree" by R. William Holland
(This book provides practical advice for career advancement without the traditional educational path, emphasizing skills and industries resilient to economic fluctuations.)
vii.)??????? "The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here" by Lynda Gratton
(Gratton offers a forward-looking analysis of how global changes, including economic shifts, are transforming career landscapes, providing a guide for future-proofing your career.)
viii.)????? "Scarcity: The New Science of Having Less and How It Defines Our Lives" by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir
(This book explores how scarcity, a common economic challenge, affects our ability to make smart decisions, relevant for career planning during economic downturns.)
ix.)???????? "Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt" by Michael Lewis
(Although focused on high-frequency trading, this book offers insights into the complexities of financial markets that can be paralleled with job market trends, useful for understanding economic impacts on various sectors.)
x.)? "Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us" by Daniel H. Pink
(Pink examines what motivates professionals in the modern economy, emphasizing autonomy, mastery, and purpose, critical elements in making career decisions during economic uncertainties.)
THE END