The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Is It Too Soon To Talk About Peace?

by Saad Bounjoua*

It has been over three weeks since Hamas launched a daring and devastating attack on Israel, claiming the lives of more than fourteen hundred Israelis, including many young people attending a dance party near the Gaza border. In response to the attack, Israel declared war on Hamas in Gaza, launching an air bombing campaign that has resulted in the deaths of over 8,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza officials.?

The conflict has also left a large portion of Gaza in ruins and forced over a million residents to flee from the northern part of the territory to seek refuge in the south, with limited access to food, water, and oil and facing a looming catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Israel has started its targeted ground offensive inside Gaza to destroy Hamas's capabilities but has still stopped short of launching a full-blown invasion.

The strategy has been complicated by the challenge of securing the release of over 200 hostages held by Hamas and pressure from the United States and the international community to prevent what many observers characterized as a potentially devastating operation both for Palestinian civilians and Israeli Defense Forces.?

So far, four hostages, all women – two Americans and two Israelis – have been released. Still, the fate of the remaining captives remains uncertain, with mediation efforts by Qatar hanging in the balance. A poll released on Friday shows that 49% of Israelis prefer holding off on a ground offensive into Gaza.?

?For Palestinians, the ongoing assault on Gaza, while being the deadliest and most violent in recent memory, is sadly viewed as a continuation of the decades-long pattern of unjust attacks on their human rights and their longstanding fight for self-determination. Although unprecedented in scale, the current surge in violence is perceived as another example of how Palestinian civilians have borne the brunt of the conflict for the last 75 years.

For Israelis, the current crisis feels different from the prior confrontations with Hamas since the emergence of the group in Gaza in 1987 and after it took over political and military control in 2007. For the first time, those who may have previously ignored, rejected or compartmentalized the conflict are now confronted with the harsh reality of war and the violence it inflicts on all sides. In the past, Hamas' attacks were confined to rockets launched from the enclave, which were mainly intercepted by The Iron Dome, providing a solid belief that the military and security infrastructure always protected Israel.??

Until October 7th, a paradigm had crystallized among many Israelis for several years, centered on the belief that the conflict could be "shrunk" (a terminology introduced by Naftali Bennett, a former Prime Minister) by keeping Hamas at bay and maintaining a tight control and strong military presence in The West Bank.

Benjamin Netanyahu had very much shaped this narrative for the last fourteen years, centering his agenda on security and assuring Israelis that their well-being would be safeguarded if they voted for him and his Likud party, even if it required allying with right-wing fringe political parties and their leaders in the last 12 months. These alliances promoted the ideology of rejecting peace. They pressed forward with inflammatory actions and rhetoric, further exacerbating the climate and resentment from Palestinians in The West Bank, and East Jerusalem and raising tensions with Hamas and Gaza.?

The Netanyahu strategy and underlying doctrine collapsed on October 7th as terrorists breached the Israeli security system and entered Israel on foot and paragliding, launching violent attacks on civilians that resulted in the highest number of Jewish casualties since World War II. Overnight, all Israelis, particularly the youth, could no longer claim to live in a bubble and a sheltered existence.?

The last few weeks' events have underscored that the Palestinian strategy adopted by Netanyahu's government has proven ineffective. Dividing the politics of The Palestinian Territories while exerting control over the Palestinian Authority and quelching violence in the West Bank, all while pursuing expansion policies and isolating Hamas and Gaza, created a dangerous blind spot that culminated in the tragic events of October 7th.

A narrative has emerged in recent days, not only in the media but also among experts and opinion leaders within the international diplomatic community and civil society in Israel and The Palestinian Territories. It suggests that the current conflict between Israel and Gaza, with its catastrophic human toll on both sides, may prompt Israelis and Palestinians to reevaluate their political choices and reject the extremist political influences that have nurtured violence. It may also incentivize the international community to mobilize and advocate a ceasefire and peace negotiations.?

Demonstrations, articles, grassroots peace activities, and testimonials on both sides reflect a growing realization that this latest war has made the current status quo untenable. Interestingly, a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research at the end of September, right before the events of October 7th, found that the level of support for Hamas in Gaza has continued to decrease in the last few years.

The trend raises important questions about the legitimacy of the group and the credibility it may no longer have following the destruction caused by its actions. The poll suggests that most Palestinians are looking to distance themselves from the extremist views adopted by Hamas. Most Palestinians in Gaza and The West Bank have not been able to vote for the last fifteen years or at all and have grown disenfranchised with their leaders across all Palestinian Territories.?

The role of grassroots activities outside the Middle East and in the United States should also be highlighted. The siege of Gaza has unleashed a surprising reaction among young Americans and American minority groups, including those of Jewish confession, protesting Israel's assault against the enclave and denouncing human rights violations, including access to water, electricity, and food.?

?Is there room for peace amidst the current turmoil? Several questions must be considered:

? Can the profound dehumanization resulting from the absence of a peace process for the last 30 years deepen based on the last three weeks, or could the current events create the impetus for both parties to rise above their mutual perceptions as “terrorists” and “occupiers” and develop a primal desire for de-escalation or negotiation??

? The Palestinian Territories boast one of the youngest populations in the Middle East, and Israel has the youngest population among OECD countries. Has the intersectionality between gender and peace been explored? Could women and mothers play a more decisive role in reshaping the relationship between Israel and the Palestinian Territories by introducing a new narrative centered on empathy, understanding, peace, and reconciliation?

? Could a different mobilization approach lead Israelis and Palestinians to view the events of October 7th as irrefutable evidence that the biggest obstacles to peace are the actions of the right-wing Israeli government and Hamas' violent ideology??

? Could Israelis rally behind more moderate voices, even as the eradication of Hamas drags, and elect a coalition government willing to halt settlements in The West Bank and engage in talks with newly designated Palestinian leaders??

? Could Palestinians identify and elect a leader or a group of leaders that will place faith in a negotiation process that could set the path to self-determination and access to billions of dollars from international donors for reconstruction and development?

History has shown that countries ravaged by sectarian conflicts can eventually emerge from the depths of turmoil, albeit not without challenges. Lebanon, the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda all offer examples. For the past 75 years, many stories have emerged of Jews and Arabs coexisting relatively peacefully, with communities like Haifa in Northern Israel serving as perhaps the most compelling model of cohabitation.?

Another fundamental question also remains. What would peace between Israelis and Palestinians look like? The global community, including The United States, China, The European Union, and Arab leaders, continues to advocate for a two-state solution (two separate countries living side by side), which most Israelis and Palestinians have increasingly doubted, if not rejected.

Polls conducted in Israel and The Palestinian Territories for the last few years have shown that support for the two-state solution was at an all-time low (less than 30% and even lower among younger participants).?

Key variables explaining the relatively low level of support include addressing the faith of two million Palestinians with Israeli passports enjoying superior living standards to their brethren in The Palestinian Territories, who may not readily accept relocation. Similarly, more than one million Jewish settlers reside in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, deeply rooted in their communities for several generations. Also, could Israel trust a neighboring state that could potentially be supported and infiltrated by foreign actors? Conversely, how could Palestinians trust Israel to respect its borders and refrain from future incursion or even expansion activities?

Skeptics assert that introducing a peace narrative is too preliminary and predicting the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is challenging, pending better clarity about the short-term development of the situation.? These variables include the following:

? Will Israel proceed with a full-blown ground invasion of Gaza, and if so, will it weaken Hamas to the point of rendering retaliation unlikely??

? Will Israelis repudiate Netanyahu and send a clear message to the international community by refuting the aggressive policies of his right-wing political coalition??

? Will Palestinians elect a responsible and pragmatic leader under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority or Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) able to unify Gaza and The West Bank and convince violent militant groups such as The Palestinian Islamic Jihad and The Lion's Den to forego their guns???

? How will global and regional powers get involved? So far, their reactions to the conflict have diverged. Most Western countries have offered unequivocal support for Israel and condemned the terrorist actions of Hamas. The two non-Western United Nations Security Council members, China and Russia, have maintained a cautious stance to preserve their neutrality and alliances within the Arab world and the Middle East region.?

? What about the rest of the world? Arab and Muslim countries, for the most part, have decried Israel's disproportionate retaliation, which has resulted in five times as many civilian casualties as the initial Hamas attack and a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Many parts of the developing world have also expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause, aligning with their rejection of Western values and policies and, in some cases, framing Israel's occupation of The Palestinian Territories in the context of the colonization narrative. South Africans, for example, have drawn parallels between their experience with apartheid and the situation in The Palestinian Territories.??

? Will Iran and its proxies (e.g., Hezbollah) sit on the sidelines, and could China and Russia exercise their leverage to convince Iran and de facto these groups to de-escalate the tension?

? Which country, organization, or person is most qualified to become a trusted mediator in the negotiations??Most observers and experts believe that neither the United States nor the United Nations could play that role.

Despite these challenges, the two-state solution remains the most viable path forward, even if a concrete framework has yet to be developed. While significant, the percentage of land occupied by settlers in the West Bank does not outweigh the benefits of establishing a separate Palestinian State. The transition to two states would need to be gradual, with milestones in place to ensure the protection and well-being of those who may have to relocate on both sides.?

A one-state solution with equal rights would be unacceptable to most Jews, particularly considering the current events that have reinforced the commitment of Israelis and Jews around the world to the Jewish identity of Israel. A one-state scenario with equal rights would entail seven million Jews and seven million Palestinians living under the same political framework, a prospect fraught with challenges.?

Another proposal, a Confederate State comprising two separate and autonomous entities under a federated framework akin to the Swiss or United Arab Emirates models, has been suggested. However, this approach faces ideological hurdles tied to security considerations and the federal government's division of responsibilities between Israelis and Palestinians.

Last, maintaining the current situation, with Palestinians living under occupation in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip marked by limited freedom, will likely lead to continued violence and could reach a point of no return, with far-reaching regional implications that could draw in multiple actors.

Palestinians continue to struggle for self-determination and a recognized nation with international representation. While the precise borders of this nation still need to be defined, offering anything less than statehood would not address their historical grievances.

Any political solution will require years, if not decades, to bear fruit because any viable and sustainable solution will require significant geopolitical capital from regional and global players and a complete overhaul of the political forces that have ruled Israel and the Palestinian Territories.??

With Israel's voters solidly anchored in the right due in part to the demographic and political rise of the ultra-orthodox community, which is set to represent almost one-third of Israel's population by 2050, the transition will be challenging. On the Palestinian side, any peace solution will require eliminating extremist groups, Hamas or else, and identifying a politician that could inspire and mobilize Palestinians across all Palestinian Territories to agree to a solution. Again, the resentment accumulated over the last decade and accentuated by the last few weeks' events may not subside quickly.??

At the same time, the international community must deploy significant financial incentives to help rebuild Gaza and provide Palestinians with the means and resources to create the foundations of a separate state. All the Global Powers vested in the peace process must share the commitment.

?It is imperative that both sides, guided by empathy, understanding, and a commitment to coexistence, work together to overcome the longstanding obstacles to peace. Precisely, Israeli and Palestinian societies must undertake the most challenging work of deconstructing the dehumanization and fear that have permeated in the last thirty years and re-introduce the peace narrative, which had been desperately lacking since the failure of the Oslo Accords, not only in their daily lives but also in the media and their respective education systems.??

Addressing dehumanization could be the most significant challenge on both sides if the goal is to achieve sustainable peace and reconciliation. The work of grassroots peace organizations focused on creating human interactions, building trust, and breaking the psychological barriers of fear and resentment will be essential. Some have already started, like the Alliance for Middle East Peace, a consortium of hundreds of peacebuilding organizations in Israel and Palestine.?

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is at a critical juncture, with the Gaza war serving as a stark reminder of the urgency to find a lasting solution.

The conflict is far from over, with a potential risk of escalation, more casualties on both sides, and expansion into other parts of the Middle East. Regardless, the conflict resolution work must start now.

No, it is not too soon to start talking about peace.?

*Saad Bounjoua is a former Corporate executive who has written extensively about Geopolitics and International Affairs, focusing primarily on the MENA region. He holds a Masters in Global Affairs from New York University and has dedicated his Masters thesis to youth perspectives about the conflict in Israel and The Palestinian Territories.

?