Israel should not Underestimate MBS

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Who would have thought?! The defenders of the two holiest sites in Islam are about to break bread with the solitary Jewish state in the world! But that is what categorically signifies the realignment of forces in the Middle East and the wider terrain.

I have written previously about earlier deals struck between Israel and its Arab neighbours – for example UAE, Jordan and Egypt. Even then, I had said that it doesn’t seem probable that these could have happened without the explicit blessing of Saudi Arabia, the lynchpin now in all diplomatic manoeuvrings in the Middle East.

Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman comes from a new generation of leaders. His bold and transformational credentials are on ample display in his Saudi Vision 2030 program. To make it a success, MBS has not only made sweeping socio-economic transformations but also major geo-political changes. The Arab world normalising relationship with Israel is but only an extension of that policy.

In his recent interview with Fox News, MBS was guarded and chose his words carefully, particularly when it came to normalising ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. He didn’t confirm or deny that such a rapprochement was imminent but did make it clear that there is a deal to be had but if this were to happen then he will expect something from Israel in return.

If Israelis think that they might get away with little to no structural and significant inducements in their parleys with MBS then they should think again! The man is young and ambitious and will not gamble away his whole career trajectory and legacy just to sit on the same table with the Israelis. Unlike other Arab kingdoms which were amenable to striking a deal with Israel for almost nothing in return, Saudi Arabia is another kettle of fish. The Saudis realise the worth of this deal to Israel and will not make the same mistakes as that of their Arab brethren.

UAE made the critical blunder of offering a strategic initiative towards Israel without tying it down to major concessions, especially those on Palestine. Even the Egypt – Israeli accord of 1979 and Jordan – Israeli treaty of 1994 reflected the fundamental Arab principle of “land for peace”. That is, Israel can only have peace with its neighbours after it gives back Arab land it occupied in the June 1967 war. This principle was also keenly embodied in the Arab Peace Initiative of the Arab league in 2002. Since then, it has been the cornerstone of any Arab dealings with Israel. But for the first time this core ideal was jettisoned in favour of “peace for peace”! As expected, Palestinian leaders outrightly rejected this deal and also UAE’s argument that this pact will act as a precursor to lasting peace and consequently a separate Palestinian state. In-fact, it was termed as a betrayal because unlike previous deals, this one provided Israel the fruits of peace without needing the Israeli government to surrender its grip over seized territory.

In the past too, other Arab overtures towards Israel – no less than from Palestine – didn’t garner much in return. In 1988 in the Palestinian Declaration of Independence PLO leader Yasser Arafat granted Israel de facto recognition by accepting UN Resolutions 181, 242, and 338. Return: zero. In 1993, Arafat sent a letter to then-Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin where he said that the PLO recognizes Israel’s right to exist in secure and recognized borders. In response, Rabin only recognised the status of the PLO as “the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people” and nothing more. Return: zero. Both leaders could have signed a joint letter where recognition was mutual but that was not to be.

MBS is wise and well versed in the historical failings of Arab proposals. He will also take cue from another bungled up opportunity by another Arab leader – Anwar Sadat. Sadat wanted to placate the Americans and expelled almost 20,000 Soviet military personnel from Egypt in 1972. Afterwards, he went to the US to ask for a quid pro quo. The White House flatly refused. Henry Kissinger was the US secretary of state at the time and thought that Sadat could have even gotten back all the territory that Israel had occupied in 1967 but “the US doesn’t pay for gifts already received”. That is the reason that the foundation of any Saudi-Israel deal should be at-least substantial concessions on Palestine and it’s guaranteed & independent statehood. So that Palestine can execute on its chief national interest of honourable existence in a hostile environment. There may not be another better chance!

As Saudi Vision 2030 has garnered pace so has risen MBS’ stock. With a substantial thaw with Iran already in place, Saudi Arabia will look to advancing an olive branch towards Israel but not before making sure that any Israeli government is willing and able to pay the considerable price of this normalisation. MBS is sensible enough to know that the current Israeli regime is on shaky grounds at best and cannot pay such coinage and thus that is why he doesn’t define a timeline to this deal. All hallmarks of someone who has good situational awareness and is a staunch negotiator and will extract the exact number of concessions needed! Israel will do well not to misjudge MBS.

Published in Daily Times