Israel-Hezbollah Tensions Increased

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia, hit northern Israel in a drone attack. This violence emerged amid fears of an all-out war following Israel’s killing of a senior Hezbollah military commander and Hamas’s political leader in Iran on July 30 and 31.

Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the death of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. While Israel has neither denied nor confirmed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death, Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has promised “harsh punishment” against Israel.

Although the Hezbollah attack seems more in line with ongoing border skirmishes rather than a direct response to the political assassinations, several countries, including the US, UK, Canada, and France, have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon due to fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. On Friday, France urged its citizens to leave Iran, and Cyprus announced it had expanded plans to support a large-scale evacuation from the region if the war grows.

According to CSIS, Hezbollah has a rocket arsenal estimated to contain about 120,000 to 200,000 short-range guided ballistic missiles, short- and intermediate-range unguided ballistic missiles, and short- and long-range unguided rockets and is considered to be one of the world’s most heavily armed non-state actors. Since October 7th, 2023, there have been more than 7,000 cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah.

Turkey urged all parties and influential states “to act urgently to de-escalate.” Meanwhile, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned that the situation “could deteriorate rapidly.”

The escalation has been evident since the weekend when the Pentagon announced the US military would deploy additional fighter jets and navy warships to the region on Friday. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved sending additional Navy cruisers and destroyers to the Middle East.

The retaliatory attacks are anticipated to target Israel’s military and infrastructure around major cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv, deliberately avoiding densely populated civilian areas to minimize casualties and avert a broader regional conflict. The magnitude of the retaliation will probably influence Israel’s response, potentially leading to another cycle of reciprocal strikes that could escalate regional tensions.

However, while open war with Iran would seem out of the question, the political pressure to respond to Haniyeh's assassination will surely lead to a direct response that could be similar to the one that occurred in April. Failure to do so risks giving the perception of weakness.

Failure to respond risks giving the perception of weakness both vis-à-vis Israel and other regional actors. So what really needs to be asked is what will be the degree of the response. The next 24-48 hours could be decisive.