The Israel-Hamas War’s New Phase

Israel has entered “a new phase in the war” against Hamas in Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Saturday. In an analysis for FP, Daniel Byman talks about Israel’s next steps. Tunnel fighting, he notes, is a nightmare. The former head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Joseph L. Votel, compared it with the Islamic State’s use of a tunnel network in Mosul, Iraq—which was a fraction of the size of Hamas’s tunnels—and warned, “It will be bloody, brutal fighting.” Hamas fighters may use the tunnels to pop up behind Israeli forces, ambushing them or even capturing more hostages. Israel has tried to bomb these tunnels, but they are difficult to find and destroy from the air.

Meanwhile, in Washington, Emma Ashford and Matt Kroenig talk about the U.S. response in their biweekly “It’s Debatable” column. Ashford, nominally a dove, and Kroenig, more of a hawk, offer distinct perspectives on what U.S. President Joe Biden should do next on both the Israel-Hamas war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ashford is “flabbergasted” by Kroenig’s characterization of Biden’s response to Ukraine as “cautious”; Kroenig, meanwhile, believes what’s important is Washington demonstrating an ability to dictators the world over that it can, in fact, “follow through.” Add “It’s Debatable” to your My FP profile to have their lively and informed conversations arrive in your inbox every week.—The editors

More Israel-Hamas War Coverage

• How Qatar Became the Middle East’s Indispensable Mediator: Doha’s critical role in the race to free the hostages trapped in Gaza. By Anchal Vohra
• Israel’s Military Tech Fetish Is a Failed Strategy: A fixation on technology created an illusion of safety—and an excuse to avoid hard choices. By Franz-Stefan Gady?
• ‘We Will Never Forgive Netanyahu for What He Did to Us’: Israeli journalist and Hamas attack survivor Amir Tibon on how his community is coping. By Tal Alroy
• The War With Hamas Could Threaten Israel’s Imports: If shipping companies decide Israeli ports are too risky, the country could soon find itself running out of food. By Elisabeth Braw
• The World Can’t Solve the Israel-Hamas War Without Egypt:Although it will prove a challenging partner, Cairo has critical interests and strong leverage in Gaza. By Jon B. Alterman, Daniel Byman

New and Noteworthy

• Europe’s Past, Present, and Future: In his latest book, Homelands: A Personal History of Europe, author Timothy Garton Ash reflects on the peace and integration he once saw in post-World War II Europe—and how that “memory engine” appears to be sputtering. Amid the rise of anti-liberal populism and an aggressive land war, Ash’s hopes and reflections on the European project are highlighted in this review for Foreign Policy.?
• A Dangerous Tipping Point: Among the many actors that have been involved since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Romania plays a role that should not be overlooked. In fact, more than half of Ukrainian grain has been exported via Romania since the invasion began last February. However, with pressures they face surrounding their position on Ukraine and in Europe, what will Romania’s role look like in the coming months? Maximilian Hess considers this and more in an analysis for Foreign Policy.?
• Argentina’s Next President: The presidential contest in Argentina “now appears very tight,” FP’s Catherine Osborn reports in the latest Latin America Brief. With three weeks left until the runoffs, Argentine Economy Minister Sérgio Massa and far-right economist and lawmaker Javier Milei have been doing everything in their power, from issuing new income tax breaks to seeking international support for their campaigns, to emerge victorious in this election. Sign up for Latin America Brief to receive a weekly digest of essential news and analysis from the region.

FP Live

Fiona Hill: Ukraine’s Fate Now Linked to the Middle East’s

On Demand

On Oct. 20, President Joe Biden appealed directly to the American people for their support as he pushed Congress to approve a $105 billion aid package—$61 billion of it for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel. How will a new conflict in the Middle East impact Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine? How will the public perceive Washington’s linking of the two conflicts? Fiona Hill, a former senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council, joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a conversation on these questions and more. Watch the on-demand video or read the Q&A.?

Ehud Barak on the Israel-Hamas War

Oct. 31 | 10:30 a.m. EDT

As Israel pounds Gaza with aerial strikes, and amid a growing humanitarian crisis there, what should Israel’s objective be beyond hurting Hamas? Ehud Barak is a former Israeli prime minister and the country’s most decorated soldier. Barak will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal at 10:30 a.m. EDT for a live discussion about how to navigate one of the biggest crises in Israel’s 75-year history. Register here.?

Israel-Hamas War: The Regional Ripple Effects

Nov. 2 | 11:00 a.m. EDT

As Israel expands its invasion of Gaza, several regional players are assessing their next moves. Hezbollah may escalate attacks from the north, and Iran has hinted at getting more directly involved. Each of Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey could yet play crucial roles in the coming weeks. And, as Foreign Policy has reported, Qatar is trying to negotiate with Hamas, while Saudi Arabia is largely staying out of the fray. Join FP Live for a look at the regional implications of Israel’s war on Hamas with two Middle East experts: FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas. Register here.

Unpacking U.S.-China Relations

Foreign Policy and the Quincy Institute are partnering to host “East Meets West,” a series of sharp and nuanced conversations to create a fuller picture of the dynamics between the U.S. and China. Register to join this timely dialogue in person or virtually on Nov. 9 on how a shifting relationship between the two countries could affect global norms, multilateral institutions, military spending, and the health of the planet for the coming decades.

Exercise Your Mind

The leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces met on Thursday in which country to resume talks?

(A) Saudi Arabia

(B) Qatar

(C) Egypt

(D) Ethiopia

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

More FP Analysis

From Around FP

Global Reboot Season 3: The first episodes from the new season of FP’s Global Reboot podcast, produced in partnership with the Doha Forum, are available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen. In continuing to explore how to rebuild a world amid disruptive international events, FP’s Ravi Agrawal spoke to science journalist and author Angela Saini on resetting gender norms and GiveDirectly’s Rory Stewart on the power of direct cash transfers.?

All About AI: Yesterday, the White House announced an executive order to regulate AI systems in an era of rapid technological innovation. How did we get here? What do experts see for Washington’s role amid this technological growth? Revisit FP’s Summer 2023 magazine, “The Scramble for AI,” for answers to these questions and critical reflections on the future of AI technology. Plus: Join a free partner event next week on the realities and risks of generative AI.?

Adam Tooze on Global Tensions: “Communication between Washington and Beijing was at a low,” Adam Tooze wrote in his latest Chartbook newsletter about dynamics between the two countries at the beginning of 2023. “Of course, what we face today is nothing like the proxy war waged between the Soviet Union and its Arab allies, Israel and the United States in 1973. But imagine, if our current anxiety about a widening conflict in the Middle East, was playing out against the backdrop of the apparently uncontrolled escalation in Sino-US tension earlier this year.”

Answer: A. Saudi Arabia. The talks in Jeddah come more than six months after the initial outburst of fighting in Khartoum, which has since spread across the country and taken more than 9,000 lives, FP’s Nosmot Gbadamosi reports in Africa Brief.