Israel and Hamas Conflict: Time is Running Out for Hamas?

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“The further backward you can look, the further forward you are likely to see.”

(Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill)

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Israel and Hamas Conflict: Time is Running Out for Hamas?

Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihad Preparations and After the 7th October 2024

No doubt when Hamas and the Islamic Republic of Iran started to plan for the day that Hamas would invade Israel, they would have studied every conceivable concept and scenario, Israeli reactions and the tactics they employed in order to pre-empt the Israeli response. The leaders would have studied many of the conflicts that Israel had been involved in and how they would have reacted. Conducting TEWT’s (Tactical Exercise Without Troops) paper exercises on desk-tops and discussions without having soldiers on the ground. As it turned out Hamas also had mock sites built for its fighters to rehearse the attack.

They would have studied the Six-Day war in June 1967, the War of Attrition 1967 – 1970, the Yom Kippur War October 1973. Other conflicts in which Israel had been involved which would have been carefully looked at would have been those closer to home such as fighting against the Palestinians themselves. The First Intifada 1987 – 1993 the first full scale Palestinian uprising against Israel in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The Gaza War of December 2008 – January 2009; the 2012 Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip or Operation Pillar of Defence (November 2012) – Military offensive on the Gaza Strip, 2014 Gaza War or Operation Protective Edge (July–August 2014) – Military offensive on the Gaza Strip as a response to the collapse of American-sponsored peace talks amongst other clashes.

Although Hamas studied other conflicts and believed itself to be well prepared it did not choose the course of action well. Hamas chose the battle field, the Gaza Strip. With its miles of numerous tunnels to be used in a guerrilla style war where they could ‘pop up’ inside Palestinian civilian areas anywhere and inflict damage on the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) then safely disappear. Hamas chose to use the population of the Gaza Strip as human shields; the guiltless, the females and the children, knowing that an Israeli response would see the death of many innocents as Israel fought against Hamas and others in the tiny enclave of the Gaza Strip. Hamas chose fire positions in Mosques, schools, hospitals and the ordinary homes of Palestinians to fight against the IDF.

Hamas was relying on world opinion and the mass casualties to stop the war and reduce Hamas’s capabilities in the Gaza Strip. Israel would be forced to withdrawal and Hamas would remain intact and remain in power. The taking of Israeli hostages would see the release of hundreds if not more Hamas, PIJ and others personnel released from Israel jails. A ceasefire would be inevitable and the prisoner swap would happen. Giving Hamas and others total victory over Israel along assisted by Iranian propaganda.

Then, when Hamas and the PIJ thought they would be able to read and react to the Israeli response to an invasion, a date would have been proposed and Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and possibly smaller Palestinian terrorist groups would put into operation the plan to invade Israel. That date would have been the 7th October 2023 and Operation Al-Aqsa Flood would commence. The date is as infamous as the unprovoked attacks by the Japanese on Pearl Harbour on the 7th December 1941 and the unprovoked attack by Al-Qaeda against the United States World Trade Centre, New York, and the Pentagon on the 11th September 2001.

Israel Response

Between the 7th October and the 27th October 2023 Israeli commanders and politicians would have studied at how they had reacted and operated in the past. Then changed their Standard Operating procedure (SOP) and decide to conduct an operation against the terrorist group differently, catching Hamas and others off guard. This would have been the beginning of the end for Hamas. Hamas were confident in the knowledge of what they undertaken, that confidence must have shrunk when the IDF started their ground offensive in the Gaza Strip but not to the plan they had envisaged.

From that point on Israel started one of the objectives that it stated after the brutal and barbaric murder of its citizens on the 7th October 2023. The dismantling and elimination of the terrorist group known as Hamas.

Marches and Rallies

The war sparked a huge response by people around the globe demonstrating focusing on different aspects relating to the conflict. Demands for a ceasefire, an end to the blockade, returning Israeli hostages, protesting against Israeli war crimes, and providing humanitarian aid to Gaza. Protests against Israeli action in Gaza were notably large across the Middle East and North Africa with support from Europe and the Far East.

The war continued.

The Temporary Ceasefire

Qatar mediated a temporary ceasefire between the warring factions which came into effect on the 24th November 2023. An agreement was reached that was brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. after weeks of indirect negotiations. The deal provided for a four-day pause in fighting, a halt to air traffic over northern Gaza during certain hours of the day and over southern Gaza entirely. The release of 50 Israeli hostages and 150 Palestinian prisoners, and the entry of more humanitarian aid into Gaza.

The truce ended an hour before it was scheduled to have done on the 30th November 2023 when the Israeli ‘Iron Dome’ missile defence system detected an incoming missile that had been launched from the Gaza Strip. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, "Hamas is the reason that the pause ended, because they refused to put on the list additional women and children that we know that they are holding and they're refusing to let go."

The war continued.

The Slow Decline of Hamas

The US, along with mediators Egypt and Qatar, had continued to push for a hostage release agreement that would be accompanied by a truce, with a Hamas delegation arriving in Cairo 8th February 2024 for negotiations.

On the 9th February 2024 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the that peace proposal on the grounds that Hamas wanted bizarre demands. The peace proposal was rejected by Israel from Hamas, saying its demands were “delusional.” The terrorist group had proposed a truce plan that would see a four-and-a-half-month ceasefire during which hostages would be freed in three stages and which would lead to an end to the war. The Hamas proposal set out that Israeli troops would withdraw from the Gaza Strip leaving Hamas still intact and continue to rule in Gaza. They also wanted the release of 1,500 prisoners from Israeli jails, a third of whom were serving life sentences. It made other various demands of Israel.

The Israeli Prime Minister stated that nothing short of total victory over the dismantling of Hamas and the return of the hostages would count. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said “Netanyahu’s comments are a form of political bravado, indicating his intention to pursue the conflict in the region.” Meaning Hamas had not got its own way.

Prior to the Hamas offer Israel had offered Hamas a two month ‘pause’ in the conflict for the release of all hostages. But Qatar based Hamas leaders were aiming for a permanent ceasefire that would have left the organisation intact.

In order to apply more pressure against the Israeli government by families of the hostages, Hamas’s armed wing spokesman Abu Obeida said in an audio message, “Losses amongst (Israeli hostages) have become many while other hostages live in extremely difficult conditions.” The spokesman went on, “We warned dozens of times about the dangers to which their hostages are being exposed. We didn’t want the situation to reach this stage, but (Israel’s) leadership ignored us.” he added, “For months, we tried to protect and care for the lives of these hostages, as it is our top humanitarian goal to liberate our own prisoners and to realize the legitimate rights of our people.”

On the 18th February 2024 the Arab News wrote that the talks on a potential ceasefire deal in Gaza “have not been progressing as expected.”

The war continued.

The Demise of Hamas

Hamas are losing. They are now fighting to keep what little power they have. Their proposition of the later state’s ceasefire proves that they are on the ropes. By requesting the release of terrorist’s held in Israeli prisons, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip is a sign of desperation. They need a permanent ceasefire to survive, and quickly.

Israel is holding its ground knowing that it’s now a determination battle to see who gives in first. Israel will never surrender what they have achieved. They are dismantling Hamas piece by piece and those other terrorist groups that stand with them, Hamas knows this and is now trying to salvage what it can. This is where the hostages come into play. Hamas knows that Netanyahu is under immense pressure on the home front by families whose loved ones are still in captivity and Hamas is using this home front pressure to create what little advantage they have.

The Israeli government is more than aware of this. Unless the hostages, dead or alive, are returned then the Hamas terrorists are under pressure to give in to the Israelis by surrendering all the hostages and yielding. By attempting to ‘negotiate’ under their terms for a return of those illegally held, they hope to keep some sort of hold in the Gaza Strip. This will not happen as Israel has vowed to destroy the Hamas terrorist network. Remember Hamas has promised that it will do the same in the future. Israel has promised that this cannot and will not occur.

Those who want the peace between the two cannot guarantee that it will never happen again. Should Israel withdrawal under the Hamas demands it would mean that Hamas would have the capability to return and conduct the same operation as they did on the 7th October 2023.

With Israel disagreeing to Hamas’s peace proposal and accusing Israel of committing genocide proves that they are losing the battle, contrary to what the Iranian government claims. Iran is still stating that Israel is committing genocide, wrongfully, as stated in the IJC Hague trial on the 26th January 2024 where it was stated that there is only a ‘plausible’ possibility that Israel was committing the act of genocide. It’s a political style of blackmail.

Currently the Israeli Army is preparing to send in the ground army to fight the remaining four Hamas battalions held up in the southern Palestinian city of Rafah. With 60 to 70% of Hamas’s fighting force decimated the remainder will have to be destroyed. Yahya Sinwar the Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip is now fighting for his life, his reputation and survival.

Human Shields

The Times of Israel reported on the 8th January 2024 that the Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar the leader of the Gaza Strip and the brain behind the savage and brutal attack on Israel on the 7th October 2023 had gone a step further. He is thought to be in hiding and surrounded by Israeli hostages in Rafah. The captives are been held in order to protect him by using them as human shields.

An Israeli news outlet reported that Sinwar spoke to hostages shortly after they were illegally abducted. Sinwar told the group, “Hello, I am Yahya Sinwar. You are the most protected here. Nothing will happen to you.” A hostage who was present recounted the incident to a family and also briefed security officials, who confirmed the story.

There are beliefs that approximately 132 hostages out of the 240 taken are still being held by Hamas and other terrorist groups. Not all are thought to be alive but Israel has always defined those who have been kidnapped and are either dead or alive in captivity as a hostage until they are returned back to Israel. It is thought of the 136 that Hamas is holding 29 are dead.

Hamas are threatening the future of the hostages by stating if the Israel forces advance into Rafah, it would “blow up” the Qatari and Egyptian-mediated talks. On the 11th February 2024 Hamas’ armed-wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, said, “Israeli strikes on the Gaza strip over the past 96 hours have killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others.”

Israeli Special Forces rescued two hostages from captivity in Rafah Gaza in the early hours of 11th February 2024. ?

This is a typical ‘carrot and stick’ ploy. Leave the Gaza Strip and save the hostages or fight on and they die.

Destroying the Hamas Leadership

One method of ensuring an organisation cannot function is to remove the central leaders, the decision makers and the main organisers, it’s called ‘decapitating of the leadership’. Sometimes the method of decapitation and decapitating a group’s hierarchal leadership can work effectively at best but on the other hand it may be counterproductive. But by removing those who believe that they are untouchable leads others to doubt their own safety and moral which effects its followers leading to a demoralised group.

The Israeli government is a follower of the policy decapitation, to remove those in power of a terrorist organisation. Hamas is just one group. After the butchery by Hamas’s operatives on the 7th October 2023 during the unprovoked attack, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar reportedly said on the 4th December 2023 that Israel will hunt down Hamas in Lebanon, Turkiye (Turkey) and Qatar even if it takes years. He said, “this our Munich.” Referring to the Israeli response in 1972 when the terrorist group Black September attacked the Israeli Olympic team in Munich, Germany. Israeli athletes were taken hostage at the athletes’ village. Within 24 hours, eleven Israelis, five Palestinians and a German policeman were dead after a rescue effort erupted into gunfire.

The Israeli response to the murders of the Israeli athletes was to put a specialised group together to track down and kill those responsible. The operation was known as “Operation Wrath of God.” Israel put a covert operation in place using its security agency, Mossad, to assassinate individuals who had been directly or indirectly involved in the massacre of the Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics.

Israel begins to Keep its promise.

On the 2nd January 2023 Hamas deputy secretary-general Saleh al-Arouri and seven others from the Hamas military wing Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades were killed in Beirut, Lebanon. Al-Arouri was a hardliner who over the past couple of years participated in coordination meetings involving Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at their “joint war room” in Beirut. Two others of the seven that were killed were leading Al-Qassam commanders. The US had a $5 million bounty on Saleh al-Arouri and designated him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) in 2015.

On the 8th January 2024 Hassan Akasha was eliminated in Beit Jinn, an area under Syrian government control close to the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. Israel claimed that Akasha was a central figure responsible for rockets fired by Hamas from Syrian territory toward Israel in recent weeks. “Since the beginning of the war, Akasha directed Hamas terrorist cells which fired rockets from Syria toward Israeli territory.”

Three senior members of the Hamas police in Rafah were killed on the 10th February 2024 as a result of an airstrike on their vehicle in the Tel al-Sultan neighbourhood, west of Rafah, Gaza Strip. Those killed were the director of investigations Ahmed Eliakubi, his deputy Iman Rantisi, and Ibrahim Shatt. Eliakubi. All were responsible for the security provisions for senior Hamas leaders in the Rafah district.

More deaths of those who conspired in the 7th October 2023 are likely to be targeted and eliminated. ?

Demise and Disruption

It is estimated that Hamas Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades has between 30,000 – 40,000 fighters although some believe these figures are exaggerated. According to the Times of Israel on the 17th February 2024 ?the Israeli military has estimated that it has killed about 11,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza since the war began along with more than 1,000 during the 7th October 2023 attack, amounting to about 30% of the group's total fighting force. According to the Al-Arabiya News the number of Palestinians arrested since the 7th October 2024 had reached 7,000 leading to a further decimation of the terrorist group.

Israeli numbers are far lower. According to the IDF in a report written in the Jerusalem Post on the 12th February 2024 the total number of IDF servicemen and women to lose their lives since the start of the Israel-Hamas War to 566 (These numbers may also include those murdered by Hamas on the 7th October 2023).

The Times of Israel on the 13th February 2024 wrote that the IDF had lost 232 soldiers since the start of the ground offensive against Hamas which commenced on the 27th October 2023. The same newspaper on the 4th December 2023 claimed that 274 IDF soldiers had been killed on the 7th October 2023 by Hamas. Taking into account the dates between the two reports and reporting errors the IDF have lost a very small fraction of those Hamas terrorists killed by the IDF.

Communications are difficult with Hamas relying on ‘runners’ as the Hamas communications network has been disrupted. Hamas leaders are reportedly communicating using handwritten notes carried by runners. The terror group is said to have employed aging landline phone network since 2009 to keep conversations hidden from Israeli eavesdropping, but war damage has forced Hamas to use lower-tech methods, which also includes communicating with Hamas political and military leaders along with others outside of the Gaza Strip.

The Iran-backed – South Africa imitative at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), (the highest legal justice court in the world), to bring an immediate end to the war by claiming that Israel was committing genocide against the Palestinians was heard on the 11th and 12th of January 2024. The court ruled against the Iran backed – South Africa case that Israel was conducting a genocide approach to the Palestinians on the 26th January 2024. The result failed to force Israel into an immediate cessation of hostilities meaning that the war continued.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Propaganda

On the 2nd January 2024 the Tehran Times was quoted as saying that, “one of the (Israeli) regime's oldest and most decorated units, the 13th Golani Brigades, was pulled out from the fighting, mainly in northern Gaza, after more than 72 of its troops were killed in combat.” It went on to say, “the resistance fighters have been able to completely or partially destroy 71 military vehicles.” More disinformation followed, “the al-Qassam Brigades announced that its resistance fighters were able, in the space of 48 hours, to target 26 Israeli military vehicles. The number of Israeli military vehicles that the Palestinian resistance has partially or completely destroyed has reached around 1,000.” The Tehran Times was the only news outlet to carry these figures.

The 5th February 2024 Tasnim News Agency stated, “Dozens of Israeli military vehicles were destroyed by Al-Qassam Brigades in the past few days, the military wing of the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas said. Al-Qassam Brigades made the announcement through a statement by its spokesman, Abu Obaida. The Brigades said its fighters have destroyed as many as 43 Israeli military vehicles, including tanks, partially or completely over the course of the last few days.”

According to Abu Obaida (the spokesperson for the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Islamist Palestinian political and military organization Hamas) the Palestinian fighters also killed dozens of Israeli forces during 17 military operations across the besieged territory, Press TV reported. The regime's fatalities included 15 troops, who were killed at point-blank range, and an officer and a soldier, who were taken out by Palestinians' sniper fire. A number of Israeli forces were also killed in an explosion targeting the entrance of a tunnel. As part of their achievements, the brigades managed to seize four Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles and fire a volley of rockets at the city of Tel Aviv.

The Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a Fars News Agency article on the 13th February 2024 quoted that Israel has achieved nothing from more than four months of aggression against the Gaza Strip but murder and destruction, therefor the regime (Israel) was ‘forced’ to hold political talks with the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas.

In a meeting with officials from different Palestinian groups in Syria’s Damascus on 11th February 2024, Amir Abdollahian stated that Israel totally crumbled after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, and “if it were not for the US all-out support for the Zionist regime, the collapse would have been completely visible.” The top diplomat added many believe that Tel Aviv and Washington “have gained none of their declared goals since the beginning of the war on Gaza and that they are now forced to hold political talks with Hamas, whom they called for its demise”.

Only those news outlets run by the government of Tehran reported these reports.

Conclusion

The Islamic Republic of Iran paints a picture of victory over Israel and the United States with the reporting of false news and propaganda. Although there is world pressure to bring about an end to the conflict in the Gaza Strip it is not from Hamas or Iran who are on the losing side of the war with Israel. Iran has used South Africa and propaganda in order to attempt to save face for one of its proxy/resistance armies that is being beaten not just on the battle front but in the eyes of the world. Iranian credibility is at stake here. But let’s be quite clear. Hamas may have pulled the trigger against Israel but it was the Islamic Republic of Iran who supplied the bullets. Not only has Hamas lost ground in the Gaza Strip they have currently lost over at least two thirds of their fighting force with countless others captured and some the leaders of the group being targeted. Those of Hamas that are left are in a small piece of real estate in Rafah were the final major battle against the group will take place. In the arena that Hamas had declared its battleground declines, the desperation and its survival instinct will begin to show meaning their actions will become frantic. Time for Hamas and others involved in the conflict is running out for a ceasefire or truce. All that Hamas has left is the Israeli hostages. Here is the carrot and stick for Hamas; Kill the hostages and they will all be eliminated, allow them to be released and surrender, then they may have a chance of survival. Israel has seen what was behind them they now see what is in front of them. Currently the war continues.

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Paul Ashley