Israel and Hamas after 7 months

In the immediate aftermath of the October 7th assault by Hamas on Israeli towns, kibbutzes, civilians and (to a much lesser degree) military posts, I offered the view that Israel had no option other than to destroy Hamas.? My rationale was, in a nutshell, that Hamas is a racist and murderous entity rather than a political entity, and one cannot negotiate with the former because negotiations require credible compromises.

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Seven months into a destructive war, it is time for me to reconsider.? And by this I mean to reconsider Israeli tactics and motives.? The fundamental "Hamas is not a political entity with which one can negotiate meaningfully" issue remains.

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So why reconsider?? There are several reasons.? First, it is increasingly apparent that one driving motivation for Mr Netanyahu is in all likelihood to save his own skin and stay out of gaol.? As prime minister he cannot be prosecuted, but as soon as he loses his post that protection (against allegations of corruption that he denies) is gone.? And he depends for his political life on a war cabinet that includes essentially fascist members hell-bent on the utter destruction and de-population of Gaza.? In fact, two critical members of the cabinet have demanded an all-out attack on Rafah as the price for their continued support of Mr Netanyahu.? This perhaps helps explain the "we will stand alone" rhetoric unleashed by Mr Netanyahu in the wake of the US suspending some shipments of some heavier guided munitions.

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Meanwhile, the destruction of Gaza continues apace with Rafah now the target, although not (yet) in the full-blown manner of northern Gaza.? Protests on US campuses remain a visible, amplified, but ultimately extremely minority view in the US (this is not an echo of "Hell no, we won't go!" and Vietnam-era mass movements) although the allegations of Israeli genocide are rather more widespread and encompass governments around the world.? But no, the Israeli assault on Gaza is not genocide (an increasingly degraded charge, applied thoughtlessly as a slur in a reductio ad absurdum trend that will render it meaningless in time) though it does appear to be mass-scale ethnic cleansing.? Not quite as evil but still utterly appalling and absolutely beyond the pale.

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What is more, deliberately engendering famine, denying humanitarian aid, destroying critical civilian infrastructure, and so on, are increasingly looking like deliberate rather than coincidental consequences of the war, and therefore look more and more like war crimes rather than collateral, accidental damage.? No doubt Mr Netanyahu understands the enormous costs his military campaign is imposing on Gazan civilians, but prefers to have others suffer than to see himself in court, while some of his cabinet applaud the actions of their military and endorse the crimes apparently being committed.? And after all, war crimes by Israel are unlikely ever to be prosecuted adequately, no matter how egregious, unless within the State of Israel itself.

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Nothing in this obscene calculus changes the fact that Hamas remains buried amongst and beneath the civilian population of Gaza.? The civilians in Gaza, the overwhelming majority, are almost as much hostages to the conflict as the diminishing population of surviving Israeli hostages (the latter having become sacrificial lambs to the Israeli's ultra faction's dreams of a Gaza emptied of Palestinians).? With borders shut, infrastructure devasted, and aid largely blocked, they have nowhere to shelter.? The situation for these hundreds of thousands of people is unspeakable and the responsibility lies equally with Hamas and the Israeli Government.

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Polls suggest that a large majority of Israelis seek the destruction of Hamas.? Given the events of October 7th that is unsurprising.? At the same time (according to polls), Mr Netanyahu is likely to lose his place as Prime Minister if an election is held soon, although recent tensions with Iran, plus their ludicrous drone attacks, seem to have boosted somewhat the fortunes of his Likud party and its coalition allies.? And with Mr Netanyahu promising Israelis that the IDF is on the verge of completing its mission in Gaza (a claim accepted by at most one sixth of Israelis, according to polls), perhaps Mr Netanyahu's political fortunes may be rising once again.

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However, getting rid of Hamas has so far proved beyond the reach of the Israeli military, and bombing Rafah to ruins is unlikely to change this.? Even now, Israel continues to bomb parts of northern Gaza, meaning that Hamas is still not eradicated there.? The truth is that Hamas is probably ineradicable in Gaza absent wholesale massacres well beyond the scope of killings we have already witnessed.

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So it is perhaps time to try to negotiate a Tripoli-style departure.? There are said to be multiple Arab governments waiting in the wings to rebuild Gaza.? Perhaps they can also engineer a seaborne departure for what remains of Hamas, or can guarantee to disarm and demilitarise the murderous fanatics (and destroy their hardware and block resupply from Iran).? The alternative is continued violence with most Gazans caught in the middle, their lives sacrificed to the murderous instincts of Hamas and the fascist fringes of the Israeli Government.

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Nothing has changed my opinion that Hamas must go.? But Israel's conduct of its war has convinced me that Israel's war aims are probably not just the destruction of Hamas, but also the destruction of Gaza, which ultimately is a political decision that belongs to the current government.? Dropping 1-ton bombs onto densely populated residential neighbourhoods might, perhaps, collapse tunnels 20 metres below ground, but without a doubt will shatter buildings and the lives that reside in them, mostly lived by helpless victims of Hamas despotism.? It's impossible to see Israel killing its way to its war aims without eradicating Gaza, hence it's time for something else to replace the indiscriminate violence.? Israel has failed at its core mission, and needs to find a better way to prevent a future October 7th.