Islam in Russia

I want to send my condolences to the victims of the recent massacre at the Crocus City Concert Hall in Moscow committed by ISIS-K. In the Fall of 2014, I took a course at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California called Islam, Islamism, and Politics in Russia taught by Dr. Gordon Hahn. The course was an elective course for my MA degree. The course was very interesting and helped me to be become a more informed SME on Russia.

I had to write a research paper as a course requirement. The title of my paper was “Post-Soviet Education Policy and its Effects in the North Caucasus Federal District Since 1991." I researched the influence of Islam on the educational system in the North Caucasus Federal District of Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) is composed of six Muslim-dominated republics: Ingushetia, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Dagestan, and North Ossetia and one ethnic Russian majority Stavropol region.

The bulk of my research concentrated on Russian government programs regarding Islam in schools and universities, especially in the North Caucasus. In the early 2000s, President Putin adopted a plan to ‘Russify Islam’ in Russia called, “Russian Islam." The main purpose of the plan is to standardize Islamic instruction throughout Russia. This is to be accomplished by requiring the use of the Russian language, translating the Koran and other Islamic publications into Russian, and all sermons in mosques to be in Russian. This program has already created strong opposition by Muslims who see this plan as undermining Islamic institutions, culture, and identity.

I believe that Putin's plan to 'Russify Islam' has had a negative effect on the Islamists in Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia which may have contributed to the recent attack by ISIS-K in Moscow. It's important to analyze some data and other information regarding Islam in Russia.

In 2018, the Grand Mufti of Russia, Sheikh Rawil Gaynetdin, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera, that there were 25 million Muslims in Russia. Two million of them were in Moscow. Other major cities with large Muslim populations include St. Petersburg and Ekaterinburg. The other regions with large Muslim populations are Tatarstan, Bashkortistan, and the North Caucasus.

Between 1992 and 2010, 9.4 million immigrants entered Russia from Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, all countries with Muslim majorities. A Pew Research Center report in 2011 stated that over the next two decades, the Russian Muslim growth rate would be 0.6% annually while the non-Muslim growth rate would shrink by 0.6% annually over the same period. Additionally, 50% of Russian Muslims are under the age of 30 while 40% of Russian are under the age of 30. Also, Muslim women have 2.3 children per woman while ethnic Russian women have 1.5 children per woman.

Russia's 2009 National Security Strategy stated that the demographic situation was one of the "new security challenges" Russia must confront in the years ahead. In 2015, Russia assisted Syria to defeat Syrian rebels in Syria's civil war. Russia fought ISIS terrorists as part of this war effort. ISIS-k is an offshoot of the ISIS movement.

Russia will continue to have problems with radical Islamic terrorists. A declining ethnic Russian population and a growing Islamic population will continue to pose security threats in Russia for decades to come. The Russian war against Ukraine has worsened Russia's demographics. Approximately 1.2 million Russians left Russia during the early days of the war. Thousands of Russians have died or been wounded in the war. These statistics will contribute to the further decline of Russia.

Recent protests in Bashkortistan will lead to an independence movement in that republic. Tatarstan will likely seek independence as well. The situation in the North Caucasus will also likely boil over into open rebellion against Russia.

Russia faces a turbulent future that will end in the breakup of Russia. Sadly, Russian leaders will blame it all on the West.