Is Ironman Really a Game-Changer? Analyzing October’s Visitor Data for the past Decade

We all know that friend who enjoys sharing their accomplishments—whether it’s about their latest promotion, the size of their house, or their recent achievements. In some ways, the Ironman race in Kona feels similar. Every year, the event proudly announces its significant contribution to the local economy. Yet, when we take a closer look at the numbers, the story seems a bit less grand, prompting questions about how well those claims hold up under scrutiny.

(* Below was updated for clarity 10/28/24)

BELOW IS THE ONLY OCTOBER IN DECADES WITHOUT AN IRONMAN EVENT (2021)

HONESTLY, the article should end here! But lets continue on:

Visitor Data Overview: A 10-Year Analysis

An in-depth look at visitor trends from the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism reveals how seasonal patterns, visitor expenditures, and events like the Ironman World Championship influence the local economy.

Seasonal Trends in Tourism

• Winter and Summer Peaks: Winter months (December, January, February) lead in visitor spending, with January 2019 recording $253M in expenditures. Summer months (July and August) see more visitor activity, aligning with vacation seasons. July 2019, for instance, recorded 173,899 visitor days and $221M in expenditures.
• October's Performance: October typically falls between these seasonal highs. For example, in 2018 and 2019, it recorded around 900K visitor days but less spending than peak months.

Ironman and Its Economic Influence

• Ironman Absence (2020-2021): 2020: Hawaii’s tourism halted due to the pandemic, with no reported visitor expenditures in October. 2021: Despite Ironman being canceled, October outperformed both September and November
• Ironman’s Most Recent Numbers - 2023: September 2023: 1.02M visitor days, $252M revenue October 2023: 1.05M visitor days, $248M revenue (October had more visitors but slightly lower revenue than November.) November 2023: 1.09M visitor days, $259M revenue

The numbers suggest that while Ironman draws visitors, it doesn’t guarantee higher spending compared to other months.

Real Estate Activity During Ironman

• Consistent Sales Trends: Real estate sales in Kona show no significant disruptions due to Ironman. A 2019 MLS sample revealed that from September to December, home and condo sales remained steady. (2019 was chosen because it reflects pre-COVID conditions and the period after the 2018 volcanic eruption.) September: 45 homes, 35 condos sold October: 41 homes, 38 condos sold November: 44 homes, 28 condos sold December: 36 homes, 38 condos sold

Tourism Displacement and Ironman’s Economic Impact

Ironman participants replace other types of tourists, reducing the net benefit to the local economy. The event displaces a typical winter visitors who might otherwise visit for fall breaks, weddings, honeymoons, milestone celebrations, or cultural experiences.

Conclusion: Is Ironman Worth the Cost?

The economic performance of October suggests that the local economy can thrive without the Ironman event. While various sources have reported different economic impact figures—$30 million in press releases, $50 million from news broadcasts, and even $72 million to $100 million from other sources—the truth is, none of these numbers hold up under scrutiny.

A decade-long study comparing October’s economic performance with the months before and after Ironman reveals no evidence of the claimed surge in economic impact. The key takeaway is this: it is mathematically impossible to show a $70 million increase attributable to Ironman over that period.

The numbers don’t add up, and the assumption that Ironman is an essential economic driver does not hold up.

Personal Reflection

Ironman is an inspiring event that showcases human endurance, but its economic contribution may not align with the hype. While it undoubtedly brings some benefit, it’s essential to recognize the value of other types of tourism that also enrich Kona and align more culturally with the area.

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