Irina Mirochnik posted a piece in Linkedin as to her response to the current European political situation. My response is detailed afterwards
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Do you hear the roar? This closed?#Moscovy's window to?#Europe?- 301 years of the unbearable course of Europeanness in?#Asian?dugouts and "terems" ended. More than 1300 km of Russia's border is now the border with?#NATO.
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It took?#Russia?196 days (and 126 days of?#war) from the Dec. 15?#ultimatum?"NATO must return to 1997 borders" to "Russia's 1,271.8 km land and 54 km maritime borders are now borders with NATO."
A resounding "victory".
The ultimatum itself was initially meaningless: NATO's charter does not provide for a "rollback to previous positions", the sudden cancellation of agreements with any of the existing members.
Did the Kremlin not study the NATO charter before issuing an ultimatum?
Hardly.
So, or Putin deliberately went to the conflict and the ultimatum was a meaningless rhetorical assault - something like the classic gopnitsky "no cigarettes?". Or the Kremlin senile simply instructed Lavrov to demand "something so serious", without being interested in whether the chosen requirements for implementation are real. Lavrov was not even interested in this.
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But now Putin really hoped for Erdogan: he would still be able to stop at least the process of NATO expansion. However, in reality, these were absurd hopes: it is impossible to be part of a military alliance and go against the decision of all its members. Therefore, Erdogan designated a special status for?#Turkey?- and this is enough for him for now. Misunderstandings with Sweden and Finland about the Kurds will be resolved bilaterally and this may take years.
In the end, let me remind you that Russia fought with Sweden 10 (ten!) times in just over 500 years, the longest period without a war is 57 years, the smallest is hardly a year. The Swedes definitely do not want to get the 11th war, so they chose NATO.
And NATO, in response to another?#Russianattack?on another neighbor, expanded again. That is, instead of retreating to the west - an offensive in the northeast. Russia has already lost at least here. The Kremlin will not be able to arrange retaliatory problems for NATO in some places "as a symmetrical response" either: the Russian army is tied up in Ukraine. For a long time - as long as it will be beneficial for NATO.
So, the 126th day of the war is the moment when Russia received its first major defeat for the purposes announced before the war.
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I agree with most of what you said, Irina. I will as as non Baltic states person add in my own observations
A. What Putin was trying to do, is to give cover for his ongoing setup to starve the rest of the world via an embargo of Ukraine wheat which is vital to feeding Africa, the Middle East and far Eastern nations,.
In other words to generate enough noise as to obscure the brazen act of intimidation. I.e. Ukraine would have been assaulted if or not NATO existed. I.e. Putin knew what he wanted and NATO is an excuse
B. You are right that there is no conceivable rollback to 1997 positions as to NATO membership. To whit this was all along massive gas lighting. Unfortunately, a lot of people fell for it
C. Yes, Sweden does NOT want a war with Russia. Neither does Finland, But both countries have been the recipient of threats to either be hit with nuclear weapons or other strategic forces for the unpardonable sin, in Putin's eyes
D. The dirty detail to be worked out is the Russian concept of "deescalation" via issuing nuclear threats once the Russian Federation conventional forces are beaten in a conventional battle setting.
Putin has played to this intimidiation
E. As to Kalingrad, it can only be supplied by sea, without contravening Lithuania standing by EU regulations: Lithuania did the perfect FO response, in lieu of its treaty EU obligations and with Russia fully engaged in Ukraine, Russia does not have much other than theater nuclear weapon mouth action to hit back with.
In a word all of the last month has been a master class in intimidation and what Lithuania did is a great way to break out of the confrontation-intimidation dialogue with bully Russia
Andrew Beckwith, PhD