Ireland: Flour Market Size and Trends in 2019-2023

From the rising demand for clean label and functional products to innovations driven by health-conscious lifestyles, the Irish flour market reflects broader global trends while contending with Brexit and domestic production limitations. These developments underscore a critical period of adaptation and opportunity for the sector, laying the groundwork for future growth and resilience.

Irish Flour Market Size and Structure in 2019-2023

The flour market in Ireland increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.63%. As a result, it reached 150.39 million EUR in 2023.

The consumption per capita of flour in Ireland showed an overall increase in the period 2019-2023. Until 2023, it grew at a CAGR of 2.37% to reach 30.133 EUR per capita.

In 2023, the flour market in Ireland was dominated by wheat or meslin flour, which accounted for 92.1% of the total value. It was followed by other flour and oat flour with shares of 5.3% and 2.1%, respectively.

Broken down by retail distribution channels, the flour market in Ireland was led by supermarkets and hyper markets. In 2023, they accounted for 59.1% of the total volume. That left 40.9% to all other retail distribution channels in the same year.

Imports and Exports of Flour in Ireland

The imports of flour to Ireland in the period 2019-2023 grew at a CAGR of 11.75% to reach 148.54 million EUR.

The exports of flour from Ireland in the period 2019-2023 grew at a CAGR of 14.40% to reach 5.68 million EUR.

As a result, the trade balance of flour in Ireland was negative and recorded an overall increase during the analyzed period. Until 2023, the trade balance increased at a CAGR of 11.65% to reach -142.87 million EUR.

Key Trends in the Irish Flour Market

Clean Label Flour

Consumers increasingly demand transparency in food production, seeking products with recognizable and natural ingredients. The clean label trend emphasizes minimal additives and artificial preservatives, extending to the entire supply chain, including sourcing and packaging. Companies adhering to these standards have gained consumer trust, as approximately three-quarters of European consumers are willing to pay a premium for such products. This trend also highlights the growing demand for local, sustainably sourced raw materials.

Despite these preferences, many consumers remain skeptical about clean label claims, citing misleading marketing. This underscores the need for greater transparency and clear communication of product credentials. Functional starches, fiber fortification, and natural flavorings emerged as key innovations, maintaining product taste and texture while aligning with clean label demands.

Gluten-Free Flour

The gluten-free segment gained significant traction, driven by health concerns and lifestyle choices. While celiac disease affects approximately 1 in 100 people in Ireland, with an estimated 50,000 diagnosed cases, studies suggest there are about 63,000 undiagnosed cases and 450,000 individuals with gluten intolerance. This prevalence underscores the rising demand for gluten-free products.

Beyond medical necessity, gluten-free diets appeal to consumers who perceive them as healthier. Manufacturers responded with innovations to improve the taste and texture of gluten-free flours, expanding product diversity and fostering the growth of artisanal gluten-free bakeries like Rosaleen’s Kitchen.

Functional and Specialty Flours

Functional flours, fortified with vitamins and nutraceuticals, cater to a health-conscious demographic. Rich in beta-glucan and fiber, these flours support cardiovascular health and aid in managing diabetes and obesity. Their versatility extends to applications in dairy alternatives and baked goods, aligning with the rise of plant-based diets and protein-enriched foods.

Similarly, specialty flours such as almond, banana, and sprouted grain flours gained popularity. These flours offer unique flavors and nutritional benefits, meeting consumer demands for premium, natural products. Companies like Durrow Mills capitalized on this trend by emphasizing organic milling and preservative-free products.

Organic Flour

The organic flour segment reflects broader trends toward sustainability and environmental consciousness. Consumers prioritize natural, high-quality products, driving the growth of organic farming practices in Ireland. Traditional milling methods, such as stone grinding, also gain traction for preserving nutrients and supporting eco-friendly production. Government initiatives like Origin Green and Food Vision 2030 further emphasize sustainability, fostering a market for organic Irish flours.

Key Drivers in the Irish Flour Market

Health and Wellness

Consumer preferences for healthier and natural products are a significant market driver. The demand for organic and bio wholegrain flour surged, reflecting growing awareness of food additives and chemicals. Producers create specialized flours tailored to specific dietary and culinary needs, from ancient grains to gluten-free options.

Convenience and Urbanization

Furthermore, urban lifestyles increase demand for convenient ready-to-eat products. Pre-prepared bakery items, frozen doughs, and snack-friendly options drive B2B market growth, particularly in the hospitality and retail sectors. Specialized flours optimized for specific recipes – such as bread or pastries – further cater to this demand.

Localism and Sustainability

Post-Brexit, tariffs on imported flour spurred interest in locally produced alternatives. The growing preference for Irish flour aligns with sustainability goals and supports the local economy. Investments in domestic milling capabilities and traditional methods create opportunities for Irish producers to capture more market share.

Private-Label Products

Private-label flour products gained popularity due to their affordability and perceived value. Rising inflation amplified this trend as consumers seek cost-effective options without compromising quality. Retailers like Dunnes Stores capitalized on this demand by introducing premium private-label ranges that combine tradition, innovation, and gourmet ingredients.

Restraints in the Irish Flour Market

Dependence on Imports

Ireland’s heavy reliance on imported wheat and flour poses a significant challenge. Approximately 70% of the country’s flour is imported, making the market vulnerable to external disruptions. Brexit-related tariffs and trade restrictions exacerbated these issues, highlighting the need for investment in domestic milling and grain processing.

Extreme Weather and Climate Change

Agricultural productivity in Ireland is highly susceptible to climate variability. Unseasonal rains or droughts can affect wheat quality and yield, leading to supply fluctuations and price volatility. The broader impacts of climate change, including the spread of pests and diseases, further threaten the stability of flour production.

Price Volatility

The dependence on global wheat markets exposes Ireland to price fluctuations influenced by global events. Rising energy and transportation costs compounded these challenges, increasing production expenses and retail prices. Producer prices rose by 71% in the period 2019-2023 – from 720 EUR per ton to 1,228 EUR per ton.

Sugar Reduction and Clean Label Demands

Health initiatives promoting reduced sugar consumption impact the bakery sector, a significant flour consumer. Reformulating recipes to meet these guidelines may alter product taste and texture, potentially affecting consumer demand. Additionally, the emphasis on natural, chemical-free ingredients could shift preferences away from traditional white flour.

Macroeconomic Influences

Post-Brexit trade regulations significantly impacted the Irish flour market. Tariffs on UK flour imports containing non-EU wheat have higher costs, driving up flour prices and affecting the Irish bakery industry. That has renewed interest in developing Ireland’s domestic milling sector to reduce reliance on imports.

Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in supply chains and reshaped consumer behavior. A surge in panic buying and home baking drove unprecedented demand for flour. Yet, local brands benefited as consumers favored domestic products, strengthening the market for Irish-produced flour.

As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, global wheat supply chains were severely disrupted, leading to sharp price increases. Ireland, heavily dependent on imports, experienced notable price hikes in staple goods like bread. The crisis underscored the importance of diversifying supply sources and bolstering local production capabilities.

The resulting inflation further influenced consumer behavior, with shoppers prioritizing affordability. Private-label products gained more market share, reflecting a shift toward value-driven purchasing.

Forecast for the Irish Flour Market

Under the base forecast scenario, the Irish economy is expected to show steady growth in the medium term. As a result, the Irish flour market is expected to reach 179.58 million EUR by 2029.

If the Irish economy does not reach expectations, it will show declining rates in the medium term. In this case, the flour market in Ireland will fall to 969.58 million EUR by 2029.

If the Irish economy exceeds expectations, the flour market in Ireland is forecast to reach 219.45 million EUR by 2029.