IRAN’S ATTACK ON ISRAEL – WHY NOT HYPERSONIC?

IRAN’S ATTACK ON ISRAEL – WHY NOT HYPERSONIC?

by Senior Professor of Practice Randall K. Nichols

Kansas State University

Flashy But Mostly Ineffective

On 13 April 2024, Iran launched more than 330 drones and missiles against Israel in supposedly a retaliation for an attack on its consulate in Syria. ( Al Jazeera Staff, 2024) Factually, the Israeli attack hit a building next door to the Iranian consulate housing the leadership of the elite Quds force. Among the dead were BG Mohammad Hadi Haji-Rahimi, Commander and his deputy. (Gritten, 2024)

According to Daniel Hagari, Israel’s chief military spokesman, Iran’s attack involved 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones and more than 30 cruise missiles. ( Al Jazeera Staff, 2024) Note this doesn’t quite add up to 330. There are unconfirmed sources that state that the balance of missiles exploded on launch. Iran shot missiles over several countries: Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon. Imagine the ADS [1] systems lighting up the sky. Israel’s sirens drowned them out.

According to Chatham House think tank:

“It is easy to rush to the conclusion – and many have – that the attack was a massive failure given the near-perfect rate of interceptions of Iranian drones and missiles by Israel’s layered missile defense architecture.” ?(Chatham House, 2024)

“Had Iran’s intent been to hurt Israel, it wouldn’t have violated a core principle of military operations – the element of surprise. But it did. It telegraphed its intentions to Washington and several Arab and European capitals, and assured them that its strike would be relatively limited.”?(Chatham House, 2024)

“Instead of employing offensive tactics (hypersonic missiles)[2] that would have significantly challenged and possibly overwhelmed Israeli defenses, it did the opposite. Indeed, had Iran sought to inflict serious pain on Israel, it would have incorporated a heavier dose of fast-flying and precision-guided ballistic missiles, giving Israel very little time to prepare and respond.” (Chatham House, 2024)

“Additionally, this was a highly useful information-gathering exercise for Iran. Though hardly definitive, Iran’s assessment of Israeli and partner defense’s has much improved. In a potential war of attrition with Israel, which Iran would seek, such information and assessments will be invaluable.” (Chatham House, 2024)

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Surprise?

Looking at the attack carried out in three waves from slowest to fastest weapons, we have drones, cruise missiles and then ballistic missiles. Figure 1 shows Iran's ballistic and cruise missile inventory. ( Al Jazeera Staff, 2024) The subtitle suggests that Iran possesses a large arsenal of hypersonic, high-altitude ballistic missiles and low-altitude, slower cruise missiles. Question one is what is the average target distance between Iran (area B) to Israel (area A)? Depending on the target, somewhere between 1000 km (~621 miles) to 2000 km ( ~1243 miles) is the range. For simplicity, we will use 1,500 km ( ~932 miles) from B->A for our calculations. Recognize that B (Iran) area is 636,400 miles **2 ?and A (Israel) area is 8,550 miles **2 ?so Iran covers 74.4 times more target space. Recalling our Rate X Time = Distance staple [R X t = D] , we solve for Time, t = D / R.

FIGURE 1: IRANS’ BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILE INVENTORY

Drones

Iran favors the use of the HESA Shahed 136 (means Witness 136). Shahed has a range of 2,500 km (~1600 miles), carries a payload of 50 kg (110 Lb.) and travels at 185 km/hr. (115 mph). It has a GNSS and INS guidance package , and a rocket assisted take-off launch platform. It is cheap to produce costing about $10,000 /unit. How long to reach target A? So, t = D/R = 1,500 km/ 185 km/hr. = 8.1 hours = 8 hours and 6 minutes. Iran would need to launch ~8 hours before target-hit-plan. [10]

Cruise Missiles

Cruise missiles are aerodynamically guided in powered flight and restricted to the atmosphere. (Ballistic missile, 2024) Iran also favors the North Korean designed Khorramshahr-1, -2, and -4 (BM-25/Musudan) missile. [3] [4] It has a range of 2,000-3,000 km (1,243-1,864 miles) and a payload of 750-1,500 kg (1,654 -3,307 Lbs.). (Iran Watch, 2024) Another cruise missile the Iranian Soumar has a range of 2,000-3,000 km. However, it is possible that the less potent Quds-1C with a range of 600 km and / or the Ya-Ali with a range of 700 km was used. (CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2021) (Iran Watch, 2024) Lets assume an upper range of 1,500 km (932 miles), a payload of 350-400 kg (772-882 Lbs.) and average speed [5] of 750 km/hr. So, t= 1500 km / 750 km/hr. = 2.0 hours before target-hit-plan.

Ballistic Missiles

A ballistic missile (BM) is a type of missile that uses projectile motion to deliver warheads on a target. These weapons are powered only during relatively brief periods—most of the flight is unpowered. Short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) typically stay within the Earth's atmosphere, while most larger missiles are exo-atmospheric.?(Ballistic missile, 2024) Iran has a market basket of BM choices. The key quantities that need to be considered are speed and payload. The payload on Iran’s top four possible attack BMs[6] (Khorramshahr, Ghadr, Sejjil and Emad) is at least 500 kg (1102 Lbs.). This is about 10 times the payload of the cheaper drones. Estimates of the speed of these BMs range about Mach 4-5 (under Hypersonic capabilities). (CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2021)?(Iran Watch, 2024) Lets use Mach 5. Mach1 is the speed of sound [7] or ~1,235 km/hr. Mach 5 = 6,175 km/hr. Using Mach 5, t= 1,500 km / 6,175 km/hr. = 0.243 hours = 14.6 minutes.

Therefore, the launch times (in the assumed scenario) in Iran would need to back off the target-hit-hour by approximately 8 hours, 2 hours, and 14 minutes for waves of Drones, Cruise, and Ballistic Missiles.

Hypersonics

There are several excellent resources to chew on concerning Hypersonics. (Dahlgren, Feb 2022) (Nichols, et al., 2022) (Nichols-2, et al., 2022)?(Motamedi, 2023) (ROBLIN, 2023)

If Iran really wanted to end the chaos and start a real war not a nuanced escalation, why not use Hypersonic ballistic missiles (HBM) ? At Mach 5, a B-A salvo would be ~14 minutes to cross the 1,500 km. Using instead a distance of 2000 km and an HBM capable of Mach 13-Mach 15 (16,055-18,525 km/hr.) [~3.1 miles/sec!] , t= 2,000 km / 18,525 km/hr. = 0.108 hr. = 6.4 minutes =389 seconds. Now that speed will test the defenses.

Beginning at Mach 5, flying objects encounter thermal and aerodynamic phenomena distinct from those encountered in supersonic and exo-atmospheric flight. These phenomena define the hypersonic flight regime. The combined characteristics of high speed, lower altitude, and maneuverability make it difficult to predict trajectories of hypersonic weapons, especially terrestrial sensors. (CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2021) Hypersonic weapons are normally divided into two categories – hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles. Hypersonic flight is by definition atmospheric flight. It is a complex form of ADS. It presents problems for the defender.

Hypersonic weapons at speeds over Mach 5 are attractive because they can maintain these speeds at altitudes below most ballistic missile and are able to maneuver while maintaining the high speeds. The altitude range of hypersonic flight is below 100 km[8] and between 20-60 km above the ceilings of most aircraft and cruise missiles. Hypersonic flight is not characterized just by speed. The regime involves extreme temperatures and aerothermal interactions on the vehicle surface. There is a remarkable amount of flow friction and viscous dissipation encountered by the hypersonic vehicle, leading to substantial temperature increase, ionization of surround gases, and formation of plasmas.?(CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2021) Hypersonic weapons must be designed to survive this environment for a sustained period. Figure 2 shows the Hypersonic Flow Phenomena.

FIGURE 2: HYPERSONIC FLOW PHENOMENA

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(CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2021) describes the vulnerabilities of Hypersonic flight and the need for a resilient and persistent space sensor layer capable of observing, classifying, and tracking missile threats of all kinds. A special warning goes to defense analysts that the hypersonic glide-phase interceptor represents a cheap and deadly threat of the future.

Figure 3 shows Weapons Characteristics And Commonalities. The attributes of HBM represent a broader trend in advanced missilery towards lower, more maneuverable, and less predictable flight. Figure 3 shows some overlapping common characteristics. Two excellent design references covering the wide spectrum of missiles are: (Driels, Weaponeering: An Introduction Volume 1, 2020) and (Driels, Advanced Weaponeering Volume 2 3rd ed., 2020)

Iran claims to have an effective Hypersonic Missile. (Motamedi, 2023) Quote:

“On June 6, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei attended a ceremony to unveil a new “Fattah” medium-range?ballistic missile?that can allegedly strike targets up to 870 miles away—far enough to hit targets in Israel from Western Iran." (Motamedi, 2023)

The spiky, black missile is billed, somewhat misleadingly (see below), as Iran’s first?hypersonic missile, allegedly boasting a peak velocity of 13–15 times the speed of sound, or around three miles per second. As if to eliminate any doubts as to the weapon’s purpose, a multi-story billboard set up in downtown Tehran boasts that the new weapon will be able to strike Israel within “400 seconds” (6–7 minutes) from launch.” (Motamedi, 2023)

“Iranian officials have claimed that the new Fattah missile can’t be stopped by existing air defenses, and even suggest that it could be used to target and destroy such missile defenses to “kick in the door” for subsequent volleys of less advanced missiles.”?(Motamedi, 2023)

Additionally, Iran claimed on November 19, 2023, Quote:

“Fattah-2 is capable of evading air defense systems with its high-speed maneuvers.”

Tehran's claim is being seen as a veiled jibe at rival Israel which has several air defense systems. his comes after Israel recently intercepted a number of ballistic missiles fired by Houthis from Yemen. (Hindustan Times, 2023)

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Question

There is much controversy over the actual capabilities of the Fattah, its sustainability in the Hypersonic regime and it potential nuclear payload. [9] If the Fattah or equivalent exists as Iran claimed, one wonders why it was not deployed. It would be a game-changer."

FIGURE 3: WEAPONS CHARACTERISTICS AND COMMONALITIES

References

Al Jazeera Staff. (2024, April 24). Iran attacks Israel with over 300 drones, missiles: What you need to know. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/14/iran-attacks-israel-with-over-300-drones-missiles-what-you-need-to-know

Ballistic missile. (2024, April 24). Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile

Chatham House. (2024, April). Retrieved from https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/04/irans-attack-israel-was-not-failure-many-claim-it-has-ended-israels-isolation: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/04/irans-attack-israel-was-not-failure-many-claim-it-has-ended-israels-isolation

Chycho. (2024, April 22). Mathematics of Iran’s Drone & Missile Strike on Israel: Speed-Distance Physics Problem, Example, War. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAXkQbG3ev8

CSIS Missile Defense Project. (2021, Aug 10). Missiles of Iran. Retrieved from https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/: https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/

Dahlgren, M. &. (Feb 2022). Complex Air Defense: Countering the Hypersonic Missile Threat. Washington, DC: CSIS - A Report of the CSIS Missile Defense Project.

Driels, M. R. (2020). Advanced Weaponeering Volume 2 3rd ed. Monterey, CA: USN Postgraduate School.

Driels, M. R. (2020). Weaponeering: An Introduction Volume 1. Monterey, CA: USN Postgraduate School.

Gritten, J. B. (2024, April 1). Iran accuses Israel of killing generals in Syria strike. Retrieved from bbc.com: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68708923.amp

Hindustan Times. (2023, Nov 19). Iran Reveals New Hypersonic Missile With Rare HGV Tech To 'Beat Air Defences': Threatening Israel? Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDlGUU-lbAI

Iran Watch. (2024, Feb 22). Table of Iran's Missile Arsenal. Retrieved from https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal: https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal

Motamedi, M. (2023, June 7). Iran has a hypersonic missile. What does that mean? Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/7/iran-has-a-hypersonic-missile-what-does-that-mean: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/7/iran-has-a-hypersonic-missile-what-does-that-mean

Nichols, R. K., Sincavage, S., Mumm, H., Lonstein, W., Carter, C., Hood, J. P., . . . and Harding, T. (2022). Chapter 12: Hypersonic Drone Missiles. In W. Slofer, Drone Delivery of CBNRECy DEW Weapons: Emerging Threats of Mini-Weapons. Manhattan, KS: https://newprairiepress.org/ebooks/46/.

Nichols-2, R. K., Carter, C. M., Hood, J.-P., Jackson, M. J., Joseph, S. M., Larson, H., . . . Sincavage. (2022). Chapter 2. Satellite Killers and Hypersonic Drones. In W. Slofer, Space Systems: Emerging Technologies and Operations. Manhattan, KS: New Prairie Press #47.https://newprairiepress.org/ebooks/47/.

ROBLIN, S. (2023, June 8). Iran’s New Mach-15 Fattah ‘Hypersonic’ Missile Comes With a Catch. Retrieved from https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/: https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44120784/irans-new-mach-15-fattah-hypersonic-missile/

speed of sound. (2024, April 24). Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_sound: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_sound

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?ENDNOTES

[1] ADS = Air Defense Systems (Radars, sensors and Satellites)

[2] Author inserted lead into later section.

[3] Note that this is a North Korean design and export.

[4] Khorramshahr missiles are actually classified as ballistic but were identified by IDF

[5] Actually, we are looking at Velocity which is a Vector with distance and direction. Our concern is only one direction B->A, so the author has simplified the process by using speed, a scalar quantity. My old Chemical Engineering profs would have me in the corner for this assumption.

[6] Iran has additional longer-range BMs but unnecessary to hit Israel.

[7] The speed of sound is the distance travelled per unit of time by a sound wave as it propagates through an elastic medium. At 20 °C (68 °F), the speed of sound in air is about 343 m/s (1,125 ft/s; 1,235 km/h; 767 mph; 667 kn), or one km in 2.91 s or one mile in 4.69 s. It depends strongly on temperature as well as the medium through which a sound wave is propagating. At 0 °C (32 °F), the speed of sound in air is about 331 m/s (1,086 ft/s; 1,192 km/h; 740 mph; 643 kn).[1] More simply, the speed of sound is how fast vibrations travel. (speed of sound, 2024)

[8] Space begins at this distance.

[9] Author comment.

[10] A similar analysis without Hypersonics may be found at: (Chycho, 2024)