Iranian President Raisi!
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Iranian President Raisi Hamas issued a statement expressing “great concern” after a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other Iranian officials crashed on Sunday.
Details about the crash are still murky, and Hamas expressed “solidarity” toward the president and the “brotherly Iranian people.”
“In this painful incident, we express our full solidarity with the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership, government, and people, and we ask Allah Almighty to protect and ensure the safety of the Iranian President Raisi and his accompanying delegation, and to keep all harm away from the brotherly Iranian people,” the Hamas statement reads.
Some context:?Tensions remain acute across the Middle East as?Israel wages war in Gaza?against the Palestinian militant group Hamas,?which is an Iranian ally.
Meanwhile, a decades-long?shadow conflict between Israel and Iran erupted into the open in April, when Iran launched an unprecedented attack on Israel.
Tehran said the assault was retaliation for a?deadly suspected Israeli airstrike?on Iran’s consulate in Syria. The exchange has only further inflamed tensions in the Middle East.
including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon — have also been involved in escalating skirmishes in the region.
Iranian President Raisi official says contact with 2 people aboard president’s helicopter indicates crash was “not severe”
Iranian President Raisi officials have spoken to two people on the same helicopter as President Ebrahim Iranian President Raisi since it crashed Sunday,
Iranian President Raisi Vice President for Executive?Affairs?Mohsen Mansouri told the country’s semi-official FARS?news agency.?
Because officials made contact “several times” with a passenger and member of the flight crew shortly after the crash, “It appears that the incident was not severe,”?Mansouri said.
Three helicopters were flying on the same route before two lost contact with Iranian President Raisi’s helicopter, Mansouri said.
“The Ministry of Communications and other security agencies have identified the incident area within a 2-kilometer radius. Due to weather conditions, access to the area is challenging,” he said.
Regional leaders express sympathy and offer support to Iran
Leaders across the Middle East and beyond are expressing their sympathies and concern about Iranian President?Ebrahim Raisi?and other officials, after their helicopter crashed into the mountainous East Azerbaijan Province on Sunday.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?expressed concern and said he is praying for Raisi in his first comments since the crash, according to state news agency IRNA:
“We hope that Almighty God will return the esteemed President and his companions to the nation. Let everyone pray for the health of this serving group. The Iranian people should not worry; no disruption will occur in the country’s affairs.”
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, wrote on X, “My heartfelt prayers & good wishes for the well-being & safety of President Iranian President Raisi so that he may continue to serve the Iranian nation.”
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, wrote on X, “Waiting with great anxiety for good news that all is well. Our prayers and best wishes are with Hon. President Iranian President Raisi and the entire Iranian nation.”
Here’s what other leaders are saying:
Iranian president’s helicopter has still not been located by rescuers, military officials saynbsp;
The exact site where Iranian President Ebrahim Iranian President Raisi’s helicopter crashed Sunday has still not been located, military officials involved in the rescue?operation said.
“The helicopters of the 6th combat base of Tabriz Air Force arrived in the Varzeqan area according to the order to carry out relief operations,” the?Commander of Iran’s 6th Air Force Base said Sunday.
Officials have said rescuers are facing dense fog and extreme cold as the night grows later in Iran. It’s currently just before 9:30 p.m. local time.
The European Union is activating the Copernicus EMS satellite mapping service in response to the crash, following an “Iranian request for assistance,” European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenar?i??said in a post on X.
Here is how presidential succession works in the case of the leader’s death in Iran
The Iranian Constitution mandates that in the case of the death of the Iranian President Raisi, the first vice president shall assume, with the approval of the Supreme Leader, the powers and functions of the president.?
First Vice President Mohammad?Mokhber would assume the role if the current president dies and Iran’s Supreme Leader?Ayatollah Ali Khamenei approves.
Officials said earlier that Mokhber was en route to the area where the president’s helicopter went down.
Additionally, the constitution mandates the three heads of the branches of government — the vice president, speaker of the parliament and the head of the judiciary — must arrange for an election to choose a new leader within 50 days of the vice president assuming the role of acting president.
What could this mean for Iran?
Many around the world are closely watching the developments in Iran, wondering if there will be significant changes to Iran’s policies in the region if President Ebrahim Raisi were to be harmed.
The short answer is not much. However, instability could certainly affect the economy. Following the announcement of the news, the Iranian Rial plummeted against the US Dollar.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s leader, expressed hope that the president and accompanying officials will return safely to the nation.
He requested prayers for them and assured the Iranian people not to worry, as there will be no issues in running the country.
In the eyes of most Iranians, it is the supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) who make major political and foreign policy decisions.
Iranian President Raisi is one of the most conservative presidents Iran has ever had and is very close to the supreme leader. He is also one of the serious contenders to succeed as Iran’s supreme leader.
What’s been happening?
Iranian President Raisi A major search operation is taking place in the mountains of north-west Iran, where a helicopter reportedly carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has gone missing.
Here’s a recap of the latest developments:
Helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi crashes, state media says
Iranian President Raisi helicopter that crashed while carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in northern Iran on Sunday, according to Iranian officials. Raisi’s condition and that of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian,
who was also on board, remain unknown as night falls and temperatures drop in the mountainous area.
The aircraft came down in the early afternoon in Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province, sparking a massive search effort, including military drones and dozens of rescue teams, state media reported.
But despite hours of searching, emergency crews so far appear unable to reach the crash site amid reported fog and extreme cold.
Officials say they have been able to make contact with some of the passengers aboard the helicopter, raising hopes for the search-and-rescue mission’s success.
Iranian President Raisi’s official Instagram account and state television have urged Iranians to pray for the president and his entourage.
Iranian Supreme Leader?Ayatollah Khamenei echoed in the call in a video statement, saying, “Everyone should pray for the health of this group of servants. … People of Iran do not worry. There will be no disruption in the work of the country.”
Poor weather complicates search for helicopter
The accident occurred as Raisi and Amir Abdollahian were returning from a ceremony for an opening of a dam on Iran’s border with Azerbaijan, IRNA reported.
Two other helicopters in the same convoy of dignitaries arrived at their destinations safely, officials said.
Iranian President Raisi authorities have identified a 2-kilometer radius for the crash site and believe the accident was “not severe” after speaking with two people who were traveling on the downed helicopter, Iranian Vice President for Executive?Affairs?Mohsen Mansouri told Iranian semi-official FARS?news.
“Three helicopters were on this route, but the helicopter carrying the President lost contact with the other two. They began searching and established contact with one of the helicopter’s occupants and the flight crew, indicating the incident was not severe. The Red Crescent, FRAJA, Army, and IRGC rescue teams have arrived and divided tasks,” he said.
The crash site is believed to be somewhere in the Dizmar Forest area between the villages of Ozi and Pir Davood, according to IRNA, which reported that residents in the northern Varzeqan region said they heard noises from the area.
Poor weather and low visibility are complicating rescue efforts in the rural area. Iranian Minister of Health, Bahram Eynollahi, has warned that the crash site is very foggy, making it difficult for rescuers to search.
“We have set up treatment facilities. We are now in the area and all rescue forces are busy searching,” Eynollahi said on state TV Sunday. “We have deployed all medical facilities, including emergency medicine, surgery and ambulance.”
A deployment of helicopters in the area has already failed due to the weather, Iranian military officials said.
“The helicopters of the 6th combat base of Tabriz Air Force arrived in the Varzeqan area according to the order to carry out relief operations,” the?Commander of Iran’s 6th Air Force Base said.
“These helicopters, along with the rescue team, were sent to the helicopter accident area of the president’s convoy from the early hours. Unfortunately, the operation failed due to unfavorable weather conditions.”
Iraq and Azerbaijan have offered assistance to Iran in the ongoing search operation, and the European Union is activating its satellite mapping service.
“Upon Iranian request for assistance we are activating the EU’s Copernicus EMS?rapid response satellite mapping service in view of to the helicopter accident reportedly carrying the President of Iran and its foreign minister,” European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenar?i??said in a post on X?on Sunday.
US President Joe Biden has been briefed on the incident, according to the White House.
Who is President Raisi?
Iranian President Raisi powers as President are?dwarfed by those of?Supreme Leader?Ali Khamenei, who is the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic.
But Raisi is widely seen as a figure in which the Iranian?clerical?establishment has heavily invested – and even as a potential successor to the 85-year-old Khamenei.
Iranian President Raisi election?in 2021?was heavily engineered by the Islamic Republic’s political elite so that he would run virtually uncontested. He seemed to be made in the image of the 1979 Islamic Revolution’s ideals, a guarantor of its continuation even as many chafed under its ultraconservative rules. A year into his tenure, he brutally quashed a youth-led uprising over repressive laws, such as the compulsory hijab, and continued to stamp out dissent in its aftermath.
Unlike his predecessor, the moderate former President Hassan Rouhani, there has been no daylight between Raisi and Khamenei.?This left?no doubt in many Iranians’ minds that he has been groomed to be elevated to the Supreme Leadership.
Any disruption to this vision of succession could sow further chaos in a country already buckling under significant economic and political strain.
Iranian President Raisi officials detect exact location of Raisi’s helicopter crash site
Military crews are heading to the exact location of the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a military commander in the region said, according to state news agency IRNA.
A signal was received from the helicopter and the mobile phone of one of the crew members at the crash site, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander for East Azerbaijan province, where the crash occurred.
Turkey says it will send night vision rescue helicopter to aid Iran in its search
Iranian President Raisi has requested assistance from Turkey in the search for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s crashed helicopter, the Turkish disaster and emergency management ministry said Sunday.?
Iran requested a night vision search and rescue helicopter, the ministry said.?
Turkey is also sending six vehicles and 32 mountaineer search and rescue personnel to Iran, according to the ministry.
Remember:?It’s about 11 p.m. local time in the remote, mountainous East Azerbaijan Province where the president’s helicopter went down. Even in daylight, dense fog in the area had hindered the search effort.
Hamas voices “great concern” over Iranian president’s helicopter crash
Iranian President Raisi Hamas issued a statement expressing “great concern” after a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other Iranian officials crashed on Sunday.
Details about the crash are still murky, and Hamas expressed “solidarity” toward the president and the “brotherly Iranian people.”
“In this painful incident, we express our full solidarity with the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership, government, and people, and we ask Allah Almighty to protect and ensure the safety of the Iranian President and his accompanying delegation, and to keep all harm away from the brotherly Iranian people,” the Hamas statement reads.
What happens if an Iranian president dies while in office?
If an Iranian President Raisi dies in office, the first vice president takes over, with the confirmation of the supreme leader, who has the final say in all matters of state, according to article 131 of the Islamic Republic’s constitution
A council consisting of the first vice president, the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary must arrange a election for a new president within a maximum period of 50 days, the constitution says.
Iran’s President Raisi killed in helicopter crash
Iranian President Raisi Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced five days of public mourning after a helicopter crash killed President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister, and seven others.?
In a message carried by Iran’s state news agencies, Khamenei expressed his condolences over the deaths and confirmed Iran’s first Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is now managing the executive branch.?
The spokesperson for Iran’s Guardian Council – a powerful 12-member council in charge of overseeing elections and legislation – has called the death of President Ebrahim Raisi “a great loss for the Iranian nation.”
Spokesman Hadi Tahan Nazif said that while Iran is facing a tragedy with the death of its president, Iran’s constitution has foreseen the necessary measures for this situation.
“Just as the leader of the Islamic Republic stated, the affairs of the country will not be disrupted,” Nazif told Iranian state news agency Press TV.?
Iranian President Raisi?constitution mandates that the three heads of the branches of government, including the vice president, speaker of the parliament, and head of the judiciary, must arrange for an election and elect a new leader within 50 days of assuming the role of acting?President.
Iran helicopter crash sitenbsp;
confirmed the geolocation of the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in the mountainous region of Varzeghan, near the village of Uzi, in Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province.?
Drone footage and images of the wreckage taken by the Iranian Red Crescent and shown on state media FARS News Agency showed the crash site on a steep, tree-covered hillside.
The accident occurred as Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian were returning from a ceremony to open a dam on Iran’s border with Azerbaijan, state news agency IRNA reported.?Seven others in the chopper also died in the crash.
The crash site is around 38 miles (61 kilometers) from the dam site on the Iran-Azerbaijan border that the officials were visiting, with the exact location at 38.7189°,?46.6548°
It was first geolocated by Nathan Ruser, an analyst on the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Cyber, Tech & Security team (ASPI CTS), which CNN later confirmed.?
The helicopter crashed while traveling to the city of Tabriz, Iran, semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
What do we know about the helicopter that crashed?
As details slowly begin to emerge, Iranian state media is reporting that the helicopter that carried the president and foreign minister was a Bell 212.
It’s unclear how old the helicopter was, but this model was developed for the Canadian military in the 1960s.
(As a reminder, decades of US and international sanctions began after the Iranian revolution in 1979).
The helicopters were made by the US company Bell Helicopter and used widely by government operators, including American law enforcement agencies and Thailand’s national police.
Iranian President Raisi is navy and air force have a total of 10, according to FlightGlobal’s 2024 World Air Forces directory, but it’s unclear how many the Iranian government operates.
They can be fitted for all sorts of purposes, including carrying people and cargo, and can be fitted with weapons for combat.
State-run IRNA news agency says the helicopter carrying the president could carry six passengers and two crew.
According to the Flight Safety Foundation, a non-profit, the latest fatal crash involving a Bell 212 happened in September 2023 when a privately operated model crashed off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.
The latest fatal incident in Iran occurred in April 2018, when a Bell 212 was evacuating a heart attack patient.
What next for Iran after President Raisi’s death?
Ebrahim Raisi stood close to the pinnacle of power in the Islamic Republic and was widely tipped to rise to its very top.
A dramatic turn dealt him a different hand.
His death in a helicopter crash on Sunday has upended the growing speculation over who will eventually replace the 85-year-old Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose own health has long been the focus of intense interest.
The tragic fate of Iran’s hardline president is not expected to disrupt the direction of Iranian policy or jolt the Islamic Republic in any consequential way.
But it will test a system where conservative hardliners now dominate all branches of power, both elected and unelected.
“The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” observes Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.
Iranian President Raisi is opponents will hail the exit of a former prosecutor accused of a decisive role in the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s which he denied; they will hope the end of his rule hastens the end of this regime.
For Iranian President Raisi is ruling conservatives, the state funeral will be an occasion freighted with emotion; it will also be an opportunity to start sending their signals of continuity.
They know the world is watching.
“For 40 some years, in Western narratives, Iran was supposed to collapse and fall apart,” Professor Mohammed Marandi of Tehran University told the BBC.
“But somehow, miraculously, it’s still here and I predict it will still be here in years to come.”
Another critical position which must be filled is the seat held by this middle-ranking cleric on the Assembly of Experts, the body empowered to choose the new supreme leader, when that far more consequential transition comes.
“Iranian President Raisi” was a potential successor because, like Khamenei himself when he became supreme leader, he was relatively young, very loyal, an ideologue committed to the system who has name recognition,” says Dr Vakil of this opaque process of selection, where a number of names are seen to be in the running including the Supreme Leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei.
Even before Raisi’s death was officially confirmed, the Ayatollah conveyed in a post on X that “the Iranian people should not worry, there will be no disruption in the country’s affairs.”
The more immediate political challenge will be staging early presidential elections.
Power has been transferred to Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber; new elections must be held within 50 days.
This appeal to voters will come just months after March’s parliamentary elections revealed a record low turnout in a country which once prided itself on strong enthusiastic participation in this exercise.
Recent elections, including the contest in 2021 which brought Raisi to the presidency, were also marked by the systematic exclusion of moderate and pro-reform rivals by the oversight body.
“Early presidential elections could provide Khamenei and the upper echelons of the state with an opportunity to reverse that trajectory to give voters a way back into the political process,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of London-based news website Amwaj.media.
“But, unfortunately, so far we have seen no indications of the state being ready and willing to take such a step.”
But, even within Iranian President Raisi is ranks, there appears to be no obvious successor.
“There are different camps within this conservative group, including individuals who are more hardline and others regarded as more pragmatic,” points out Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP, the Berlin-based think tank.
He believes this will intensify the current jockeying for position within the new parliament and at local levels.
Whoever assumes Raisi’s mantle inherits a forbidding agenda and limited levers of power.
Ultimate decision-making authority in the Islamic Republic lies with the Supreme Leader.
Foreign policy, especially in the region, is the preserve of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) who wield growing power.
The Iranian President Raisi didn’t call the shots months ago when Iran confronted unprecedented tensions with its arch-enemy Israel over the devastating Israel Gaza war.
It triggered a dangerous tit-for-tat and set alarm bells ringing in many capitals, most of all Tehran, over the potential for an even riskier escalatory spiral.
But as he presided over day-to-day business, Iranians struggled to cope with deepening financial hardship linked to crippling international sanctions as well as mismanagement and corruption.
Inflation soared to more than 40%; the rial currency plunged in value.
On his watch, the Islamic Republic was also shaken by an extraordinary wave of protests sparked by the death in custody in September 2022 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who was detained by morality police for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code.
Weeks before the unrest, Iranian President Raisi had ordered a tightening of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” which obligated women to behave and dress modestly including wearing a headscarf.
But the protests spearheaded by a young generation of women, lashing out against a raft of restrictions imposed on their lives, mainly focused their fury on the real sources of power, the Supreme Leader and the system itself.
Human rights groups say hundreds were killed in the crackdown and thousands detained.
“Having been elected with the lowest recorded turnout in presidential elections in Iranian history, Iranian President Raisi did not have the popular mandate of his predecessor Rouhani, “ says Shabani in reference to the reformist leader Hassan Rouhani whose initial popularity was partly fuelled by the 2015 landmark nuclear deal which fell apart when President Trump unilaterally pulled the US out three years later.
Indirect talks between President Biden’s administration and Raisi’s team made little progress.
“He avoided much of the ire which was directed at Rouhani by opponents of the Islamic Republic, partly because he was simply seen as less influential and effectual,” explains Shabani.
During the urgent diplomacy around the Israel-Gaza war, he was the voice on the phone and the face at meetings with Iran’s allies, as well as with Arab and Western foreign ministers anxious to calm and contain tensions.
“He was a useful channel to pass messages,” commented a senior Western diplomatic source. “But it tended to be quite formulaic since power did not lie in the foreign ministry.”
“The sudden death of a president is normally a consequential event but, despite being seen as a potential Supreme Leader, he lacked political support and any clear political vision,” maintains analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar think tank. “But the political operators who got him elected will adjust and advance without him.”
What next for regime and region after Iran’s president dies in helicopter crash?
Iranian President Raisi, 63, was seen by many as a pliant figurehead, chosen for his loyalty to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s aging supreme leader. While this may not change any immediate policies — foreign or domestic — many observers believed him to be a front-runner to replace Khamenei, 85, and his sudden death could upend the battle to helm the theocratic regime as it confronts these challenges.
“There is a big void with Raisi gone, not just in terms of presidential candidates but also, even more importantly, in terms of succession to the supreme leader,” Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an Abu Dhabi-based senior analyst at the security consultancy Control Risks, told NBC News. Raisi’s shocking death comes at a time of vulnerability for Iran,
More generally, it could add an “increased perception of vulnerability” of Iran in Western eyes, Tabrizi said.?
Tehran has accelerated its nuclear program?since the United States withdrew from a landmark agreement capping its activities and has now pushed far beyond the restrictions imposed in that deal, enriching uranium close to the levels needed to build nuclear weapons,
according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.Meanwhile, it is?supporting a number of proxy forces fighting Israel, and in some cases American forces, across the region: from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and fighters in Iraq and Syria.
The situation escalated last month after?a suspected Israeli bombing of a consular building in Damascus, Syria,?killed two Iranian generals.
Iran’s unprecedented direct response of?300 missiles and drones fired at Israel?brought the rivals closer to a wider war that neither appeared to want.?
Iranian President Raisi “was not a strong driving force of any particular line on Iranian foreign policy, and as a result, his absence is not going to have an impact on that,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think tank.
It’s clear Iran wants to convey an air of stability and strength.?
Khamenei enacted Article 131 of the Constitution, giving Vice President Mohammad Mokhber power and mandating elections within 50 days,
while launching five days of mourning featuring public funeral processions in major cities that began Tuesday.
“The Iranian President Raisi will certainly try to present this as nothing changing,” said Michael Stephens, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute,
a Philadelphia-based think tank. “Mokhber isn’t really well known, so they can paint any image onto him that they like, essentially.”
It’s unclear who Raisi’s successor might be, owing to the opaque nature of Iran’s political system. Hard-liners have assumed dominance of all major facets of Iranian power,
and the clerical elite tightly controls who is allowed to run in its elections — disbarring moderates at recent ballots in March.Keen Iran-watchers expect Mohsen Rezaee, former head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
and former Central Bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati to stand again as they did in 2021.?
For many Iranians, Raisi was a hated figure, owing to his role overseeing mass executions in the 1980s — which earned him the nickname the “Butcher of Tehran” — and his more recent,
?brutal crackdown on protesters?demonstrating against Iran’s conservative clothing restrictions for women.Turnout for the March elections was just 41%, the lowest in modern history. And public mourning forIranian President Raisi has been far more muted than for other officials,
according to Reuters reports from the region, with many shops staying open. Meanwhile, there were scenes of celebration among the Iranian diaspora in London and elsewhere.
Maryam Rajavi, an Iranian dissident politician exiled in Paris, issued a statement calling the shock death “a monumental and irreparable strategic blow” for Khamenei that would
“trigger a series of repercussions and crises within theocratic tyranny, which will spur rebellious youths into action.”
But any hopes that Iranian President Raisi is death may open the way for a less hardline supreme leader will very likely be disappointed, Parsi at the Quincy Institute said.
What about Iran’s regional networks?
Iran’s growing support for the “axis of resistance” of political and military groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon,
the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, has encompassed a decades-long strategic policy that will not change with the deaths of Raisi or Amirabdollahian.
Their successors will be responsible for developing an effective public image of collaboration with, and support for,
the members of the axis while maintaining lines of communication with the US and European powers.
This is especially important amid Israel’s war on Gaza, which threatens the region and has pitted Iran and the axis against Israel and its allies.
Will there be a difference in Iran’s domestic politics?
The passing of Iranian President Raisi and Amirabdollahian could entail some changes in Iran’s domestic power politics.
But the establishment is now run by conservative and hardline political camps, and any potential power struggles are expected to be within those ranks – with reformists out of the picture.
The IRGC has consistently grown stronger since reformers and moderates were shunned in the aftermath of the fall of the nuclear deal and the reimposition of sanctions on Iran.
And the hardline factions have refused to compromise in the wake of the wave of anti-government protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022.
Many appointments since 2021 have involved IRGC personnel, and Mokhber – or the next president – is unlikely to reverse that trend.
The latest major appointment came in May 2023, when IRGC commander?Ali Akbar Ahmadian?was selected by Khamenei as Iran’s new security chief.
This change Iran’s international policies
The Iranian political establishment has a roughly unified view of Iran’s international policies.
Interim President Mohammad Mokhber has been mostly focused on local affairs, from navigating politics to managing efforts to stabilise the perennially sanctioned Iranian economy.
But he has also accompanied the president, or led delegations himself, on foreign trips from China and Russia to a tour of Africa.
Interim Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has been Iran’s chief negotiator in nuclear talks with global powers. It is unclear whether he has the same strong ties with the regional, Iran-aligned “axis of resistance” that Amirabdollahian had.
“The policies will not drastically change,” Akbari said. “The National Security Council in Iran, the supreme leader, and when it comes to certain foreign policy files,
the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], bureaucratically and institutionally speaking, set Iran’s foreign policy agenda.”
What comes next for Iran after the death of President Raisi?
The deaths of the president and other officials in a helicopter crash are not likely to lead to major policy changes.
The deaths of Iran’s President?Ebrahim Raisi?and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a?helicopter crash?on Sunday have now been confirmed by Iranian authorities.
After a desperate overnight search for the aircraft in the rugged terrain it had fallen in, rescuers finally found the accident site and retrieved the bodies of the eight people who had been on board.
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Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian dies in helicopter crash aged 60
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Helicopter crash kills Raisi: Are sanctions behind Iran’s aviation crisis?
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Photos: Rescue teams recover bodies from Raisi’s helicopter crash site
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takes a closer look at what the plans are for their funerals, and what comes next for Iran.
When will the funerals be?
The bodies of Iranian President Raisi, 63,?Amirabdollahian, 60, and the other officials and staff were brought to Tabriz, the capital city of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, and a public procession was held.
Another ceremony will be held on Tuesday morning, when the funeral rites will begin, as the bodies are transferred to Tehran.
In the capital, another procession and other ceremonies will be held, the details of which have yet to be finalised.
Organisers in Mashhad said they are planning a “glorious” burial for Raisi, who was born in the holy Shia city in northeastern Iran and was a custodian of its powerful bonyad, or charitable trust, which operates the shrine.
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Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has announced five days of public mourning.PlayMute
Who will become Iran’s president and foreign minister?
Mohammad Mokhber?and Ali Bagheri Kani are now interim Iranian President Raisi and foreign minister, respectively, and may be replaced once a new president is elected.
But both are highly likely to remain at the top levels of government, if not in their new positions, after having been mainstays of the Iranian President Raisi administration, which was often praised by – and is closely aligned with – Khamenei.
What does this mean for Iran?
Iran will now have to hold elections and choose a new president within 50 days, according to the country’s constitution, about a year sooner than planned.
State media has reported that the election will take place on June 28, with candidates to be registered between May 30 and June 3.
Iranian President Raisi won the presidency by a distance in 2021, amid wide disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates and a record-low turnout.
Considering the fact that all Iranian presidents who have served under Khamenei had been in office for two terms, Iranian President Raisi was widely expected to win re-election next year.
“The judiciary, the legislative branch, as well as the executive branch are being controlled by the more right-leaning, conservatives in Iran currently,”
Reza H Akbari, Middle East and North Africa programme manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, told Al Jazeera.
“So some analysts believe Iranian President Raisi is death may open up room for more traditional conservative [candidates] to make an attempt at the office of the presidency.”Play Video
How significant was Raisi in Iran?
Khamenei has been supreme leader since 1989, but as he is age 85 and has suffered from health issues in recent years, the question of who will replace him as head of state has become more prominent in Iran.
Iranian President Raisi is name had been floated as a candidate, alongside Khamenei’s own 55-year-old son, Mojtaba. Yet, some analysts say Raisi was never likely to ascend to the highest position in Iran.
“Iranian President Raisi was a weak president, but he was a loyalist and the most loyal option…. the Supreme Leader could find,” said Hamidreza Azizi,
a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
At the same time, his conservative background “gave him a level of support from government supporters and within the elites”, Azizi said.
Iranian President Raisi had not commented on possibly succeeding Khamenei. But the president, who was rarely criticised by conservative politicians, was certain to play a role in shaping the future of Iran.
Mojtaba Khamenei, on the other hand, is a cleric with close ties to the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who rarely appears or speaks publicly.
“The political infighting that ensues after the death of the supreme leader will more than likely be too chaotic for us to predict,” Akbari said.
What comes next for Iran after the death of President Raisi?
The deaths of the president and other officials in a helicopter crash are not likely to lead to major policy changes.
The deaths of Iran’s President?Ebrahim Raisi?and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a?helicopter crash?on Sunday have now been confirmed by Iranian authorities.
After a desperate overnight search for the aircraft in the rugged terrain it had fallen in, rescuers finally found the accident site and retrieved the bodies of the eight people who had been on board.
Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian dies in helicopter crash aged 60
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what comes next for Iran.
What happens in Iran when a president dies in office?
May 20 (Reuters) – Iran’s?President Ebrahim Raisi?was killed in a helicopter crash, an Iranian official and Mehr news agency reported on Monday. Below is a brief outline of what Iran’s constitution says happens when a president is incapacitated or dies in office:
* If a president dies in office, article 131 of the Islamic Republic’s constitution says that the first vice president – who is?Mohammad Mokhber?– takes over, with the confirmation of the supreme leader, who has the final say in all matters of state in Iran.
* A council consisting of the first vice president, the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary must arrange an election for a new president within a maximum period of 50 days.
Raisi was elected president?in 2021 and, under the usual timetable, a presidential election had been due to take place in 2025. Under constitutional rules, it can now be expected to take place by early July.
Coming soon: Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World.
Iran’s president has died in office. Here’s what happens next?
An ultraconservative president, 63-year-old Iranian President Raisi was killed Sunday, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and
other high-ranking officials,?in a helicopter crash?in Iran’s remote northwest. Their death comes at a delicate time for a country that faces unprecedented challenges at home and from abroad.
The Islamic Republic’s economy remains crippled by American sanctions, its young population is becoming growingly restive,
and the country faces increasingly belligerent adversaries in the Middle East and beyond.
Iranian President Raisi is death will “trigger elections at a time when the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) is at the nadir of its legitimacy and zenith of its exclusionary policies,” Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group think tank
Who steps in as president?
Power has now been transferred to Mohammad Mokhber, who had served as Iranian President Raisi is vice president and was on Monday approved as acting president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic.
Not as well known as Iranian President Raisi, Mokhber is “another administrator,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN’s Becky Anderson.
“He is close to the IRGC, close to the levers of power,” Vakil said, adding that he is likely to present a model of “business as usual” in the coming days.
But the country must, by law, hold elections within the next 50 days.?On Monday, Iranian state news IRNA said Iran’s presidential?elections will take place Friday, June 28.
Candidates can register from May 30 to June 3, and campaigning will run from June 12 until the morning of June 27, it added.
Experts say that the elections are likely to be hastily organized, with poor voter participation. In March, Iran recorded its lowest electoral turnout since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979, despite government efforts to rally voters ahead of the ballot.
That vote — for seats in the parliament, or Majles, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is tasked with picking the Supreme Leader — brought in mostly hardline politicians.
“The population has by and large lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box,” Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, wrote Sunday on X.
The March election also barred more moderate politicians from running — including former President Hassan Rouhani, once a regime stalwart — tightening the small circle of hardliners to continue the Supreme Leader’s conservative rule after he dies.
“Real alternatives to Iran’s hardliners have simply not been allowed to stand for office in the last few elections,” Parsi said on X, adding that “those alternatives have in the eyes of the majority of the population lost credibility anyways, due to the failure to deliver change.”
Until the Supreme Leader is replaced, however, little change is expected to follow Raisi’s death, particularly on foreign policy.
“It is really the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards who make the final decisions, and even in the region mostly implement Iran’s regional policy,” Vaez said, adding that “overall we will see more continuity than change.”
What are the longer-term implications of Raisi’s death?
Iranian President Raisi is death has raised questions about who will eventually succeed Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most powerful man in the country.
The Iranian clerical establishment had invested heavily in Raisi during his presidency, seeing him as a potential successor to Khamenei.
Observers say he had been groomed to be elevated to the Supreme Leader’s position.
Iranian President Raisi is death will create “a succession crisis in Iran,” Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on X.
The late president upheld some of the regime’s most hardline policies, quashing the 2022 mass protests that sought to challenge repressive laws, such as the compulsory hijab.
According to the constitution, the 88-member Assembly of Experts picks the successor to the Supreme Leader after his death.
Members of the Assembly itself are, however, pre-vetted by Iran’s Guardian Council, a powerful 12-member body charged with overseeing elections and legislation.
The Assembly of Experts has become increasingly hardline over the years. In the March vote, Raisi was re-elected to the assembly, and the Guardian Council barred Rouhani from contesting a seat.
While there are procedures to selecting the Supreme Leader, discussions about successions are always “very opaque,” Vakil said, adding that they take place “within a very close circle of individuals.”
Some have pointed to the incumbent Supreme Leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei, a midlevel cleric, as a potential contender for the top post,
but that would be a shift from the principles of the Islamic Republic, which overthrew a repressive monarchy in 1970 and has prided itself for shaking off hereditary rule.
Allowing Mojtaba to replace his father may, however, spur theories that Raisi’s death was not accidental, Sadjadpour said.
Iranian President Raisi is rivals are also likely to try to fill the vacuum he leaves, Vaez said.
“(This) definitely throws all the plans that offices of the Supreme Leader probably had out the window,” Vaez told CNN’s Paula Newton.
He added, however, that Iran has no shortage of political actors who are “subservient and belong to the old guard of the Islamic Republic” who can replace Raisi.
How will it impact Iran’s foreign relations?
Iranian President Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian oversaw a turnaround in Iran’s relations with its Arab neighbors, helping normalized relations with longtime foe Saudi Arabia,?
with China’s assistance. But they also saw the Islamic Republic initiate a large-scale direct attack on Israel for the first time,?after a suspected Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
That prompted Israel to launch an unprecedented retaliation, bringing the shadow war between the two nations out into the open.
Experts say that Iranian President Raisi is death is unlikely to have an impact on the regime’s foreign policy, which is almost exclusively the domain of the Supreme Leader.
Iran’s foreign policy is decided by the Supreme National Security Council and can be vetoed by the Supreme Leader,
Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iran expert and editor of the Amwaj.media news outlet, told CNN’s Anderson. “We will see continuity in terms of how Iran approaches the regional files, collaboration with regional allies.”
He added that a similar trajectory is likely to be seen on the nuclear program.
Could the upcoming presidential election bring change to Iran?
Some experts say that the election presents an opportunity for the regime to bring back sidelined moderates.
While Khamenei is likely to maintain conservative rule, he “has always emphasized voter turnout as a litmus test of the legitimacy of the system,” Shabani said. “That election can be?a watershed moment?for Iran.”
Iranian President Raisi came to power in elections that many Iranians saw as a foregone conclusion.
With moderate candidates squeezed out, voter turnout was extremely low,?highlighting the regime’s waning legitimacy.
“If the Supreme Leader chooses to use these early elections as a watershed moment to open up the political space, to get people to vote again,
that could be a massive gamechanger,” Shabani said, adding that this would also impact succession to the Supreme Leader.
What are the funeral plans?
?Mansouri said funeral prayers will begin in the northwestern city of Tabriz at 9:30 a.m. local time on Tuesday. There will be a procession from the Tabriz Martyr’s Square to the Tabriz Mosallah (prayer hall).
Later on Tuesday, the bodies of the victims of the helicopter crash will be transferred to the holy Shiite city of Qom, where funeral prayers will take place at 4:30 p.m. local time (9 a.m. ET) outside the Fatima Masumeh Shrine.
Afterwards, on Tuesday evening, the bodies will be transferred to Tehran’s Grand Mosallah Mosque, according to Mansouri.
On Wednesday, large ceremonies are planned in Tehran at the Grand Mosallah. One or two other ceremonies will be announced later, according to Mansouri.
On Thursday morning, funeral prayers will begin in Birjand, South Khorasan province, where Raisi served as the Supreme Leader’s representative.
Later on Thursday, RIranian President Raisi is body will be transferred to the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will conduct prayers over Raisi’s body, according to Mehr news.
On Thursday night, Iranian President Raisi is body will be buried in Mashhad, according to Mansouri.
Mansouri also announced the closure of offices on Wednesday all over the country, and said the governors in the provinces where processions will take place can declare public holidays on Wednesday.
How Ebrahim Raisi’s death could affect Iran’s leadership, politics and regional ties
The wreckage of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and six others was found on Monday in mountains near
the Azerbaijan border after a challenging search in a blizzard, according to officials.
Iranian President Raisi, a hardline cleric, was elected president in 2021. He was known for his efforts to enforce stricter morality laws in?Iran, culminating in a violent crackdown on anti-government protests?in 2022, predominantly led by women advocating for an end to theocracy.
On foreign policy, Iranian President Raisi pushed hard in nuclear talks with world powers and expanded Iran’s ties with?Russia,?China?and?India?through a “Look East” strategy.
His death also comes as tensions rise in the region over?the war in Gaza, with Iran supporting groups claiming to resist?Israel?and?US?influence in the?Middle East.
To understand the potential ramifications of Raisi’s unexpected death on Iran’s domestic and foreign policy,
it is essential to examine the country’s political landscape, process of succession, and its broader regional and international relations.
Through a popular vote, Iranian President Raisi chose to become an Islamic Republic, effectively dethroning the monarchy and forcing the shah into exile.
This new system transformed Iran into a Shiite theocracy and, that same year, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was elected as the country’s first supreme leader, who had the last word on all matters of state.
The country’s constitution, ratified in 1979 by a popular referendum, features a blend of Islamic theocracy and democratic principles.
Sitting at the top of Iran’s political structure today is supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, who succeeded Khomeini after his death in 1989. Khamenei has final say on Iran’s foreign policy and its controversial nuclear programme.
Iranian President Raisi was widely regarded as a staunch ally of the supreme leader, implementing his policies and promoting the expanded role of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in both politics and the economy realms, experts say.
As such, not much is likely to change regarding Iran’s major foreign-policy stances because “the president has very little influence” on these decisions, according to Alam Saleh, an Iranian studies specialist at the Australian National University.
“The ultimate decision-maker is the supreme leader, so when it comes to regional and foreign policy, things are likely to stay the same as before.”
Question of succession!
Iranian President Raisi’s constitution states that an elected body of clerics, called the Assembly of Experts, must pick the supreme leader. But the assembly is more of a ceremonial body with limited power,
according to observers, and Khamenei is likely to have a major say in determining who takes on the mantle.
Iranian President Raisi’s death has highlighted that Mojtaba is the only “obvious” candidate in line to succeed his father as supreme leader, Saleh said.
The late president was not being seriously considered for the supreme leader position, according to Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in?Qatar?– especially as he had faced internal dissent over a number of his political and economic decisions.
Iranian President Raisi’s economy has taken a hit under Raisi, with the country’s currency, the rial, reaching record lows, losing at least 55 per cent of its value in the last three years.
“One thing about Iranian President Raisi was that he was not popular at all. He wasn’t able to deliver on his economic promises.
We saw a further retraction of political space and a reduction of freedoms under his rule … he was not well-liked by Iranians,
Power struggle looms
Observers warns of a potential power struggle over the presidency, particularly among the country’s ultraconservatives. According to Saleh, hardliners could look to Iranian President Raisi’s death as an opportunity to gain power and influence domestically.
Political analyst Arash Azizi said the regime’s focus would now be on “an orderly transition of presidency.”
“I expect a harsh struggle waged by various factions of the Islamic Republic over who gets to become president,” said Azizi, a writer and a senior lecturer of history and political science at Clemson University in the US.
“There won’t be a constitutional crisis as the Islamic Republic is rather good at an institutional response to moments like this … But there will surely be a power struggle over the presidency,” he said.
Observers say suspicions of foul play surrounding Iranian President Raisi’s death could fuel conspiracy theories questioning the true nature of the accident. This was especially problematic “in a closed system like the Islamic Republic, where there is no free press”, Azizi said.
Continuity in foreign relations
Messages of condolences for Iranian President Raisi poured in from some of Iran’s regional neighbours and allies, including the leaders of?Saudi Arabia,?Syria,?Egypt, the?United Arab Emirates,?Qatar,?Jordan,?Iraq?and?Pakistan.
Notably, there were fewer immediate reactions from leaders in the West, but the European Union and Japan did offer their condolences.
Iranian President Raisi’s relations with the West reached a new low after 2018 when the US – then led by?Donald Trump?–?exited a nuclear deal with Iran?and applied economic sanctions, hitting the country’s key exports of crude and oil products.
Iranian President Raisi took on the presidency three years after the sanctions were put in place but had not been able to come to an agreement with the US.
Instead, Iran shifted its approach from engaging with Western nations to fostering closer ties with Russia, China and India.
Responding to the news of Iranian President Raisi’s death, Russian President?Vladimir Putin?called him “a true friend of Russia” while Indian Prime Minister?Narendra Modi?said he was “deeply shocked and saddened”.
Middle Eastern militant groups in the “Axis of Resistance” coalition supported by Iran – such as Hamas in the Palestinian territories,?Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the?Houthi rebels in Yemen?– also made statements mourning Iranian President Raisi’s death.
According to analysts, little is expected to change in terms of how Iran conducts its foreign relations.
“When it comes to key foreign policy issues and strategic decision-making, the president has very little say … the supreme leader and the deep state play a big role and are the ultimate decision-makers,” said Iranian studies specialist Saleh.
“The foreign minister, who also died along with the president … was able to draw Iran closer to countries like China, India and, most significantly, Russia,” said analyst Kamrava. “I don’t think we’ll see major changes to this in the foreseeable future.”
Kamrava added that it was evident from Supreme leader Khamenei’s response and statements to the people of Iran that the government’s focus was on continuing “business as usual”.
“Khamenei has said the country’s borders are safe, the country is safe, there will be political continuity as normal. I think that’s the government’s primary focus right now,” he said.
“We see that in the live state media television feed that was being broadcast even before the death was confirmed … it’s business as usual with all sorts of arrangements being made for what is next.”
Raisi’s Death Represents a Tipping Point for Iran?
Iranian President Raisi has suddenly been thrust into an election season nobody wanted after its president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash last Sunday.
The leadership vacuum is particularly important because Iranian President Raisi was widely seen as the likeliest successor to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 and reportedly in poor health.
The accident comes at a tricky moment amid Iran’s ongoing shadow war with Israel, its proximity to a nuclear bomb, and its struggling economy.
How will Tehran manage this enforced leadership transition, and what will it mean for the world? I spoke with
longtime Iran watchers Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Robin Wright, a contributing writer for the?New Yorker?and distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center.
Subscribers can watch the full interview in the video box atop this page. What follows is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.
Robin Wright:?It’s a tipping point because Iran is facing so many challenges. Its economy is in perpetual crisis: The value of the rial has gone down 30 percent. Militarily, it has engaged directly with Israel after decades of a shadow war. Politically,
Iranian President Raisi was expected to be the one to oversee the transition after the inevitable death of the supreme leader, who’s been in power since 1989.
There has only been one such transition before, from the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Khamenei was president before he became supreme leader. So this threw the whole future of Iran into the air—Raisi was considered one of the two most obvious
candidates to replace the supreme leader. Now there is only one: the son of the current supreme leader. If that should happen, it would create, in effect,
a theocratic dynasty, whereas the revolution was all about ending having one family control all the levers of power in Iran.
RA:?Karim, this is obviously a huge shock for Iran. I’m imagining there will be conspiracy theories about what actually happened. How are Iranians reacting to the news?
Karim Sadjadpour:?I was not surprised, but it was remarkable to see the outpouring of joy and celebration among many Iranians who viewed Raisi as this dark,
repressive figure. There were fireworks going on in big cities, including his hometown of Mashhad.
But Iran is a polarized society, so there was also a segment of the population that was deeply mourning him.
Like any society that has slipped under dictatorship for many decades, the Iranian society has become quite conspiratorial.
I suspect the official version—which was that it was an accident—I’m not sure how many people fully believe.
There are many potential culprits, perhaps in their views, ranging from Israel and the United States to it being an inside job of individuals who wanted to elbow out Iranian President Raisi from potentially succeeding the leader.
I think what’s most significant about this death isn’t that Iran needs to find a new president. What’s most significant is that one of the only two individuals
who was seen as a serious contender to be the next most powerful man in Iran is now out of the picture.
RA:?Robin, you’ve interviewed the last six Iranian presidents, including Iranian President Raisi, of course. Tell us a little bit more about him. What kind of a president was he? What legacy does he leave behind?
RW:?Iranian President Raisi was arguably the most belligerent of Iran’s presidents—and also the most unpopular.
He was one of those absolutist ideologues who believed that Iran has to follow the rigid revolutionary principles and strict Islamic traditions.
The big debate in Iran has always been, since 1979, whether the Islamic Republic is first
and foremost an Islamic state that follows God’s law—or is it a republic that follows man’s law as embodied in a Napoleonic constitution? There’s been a tug of war all along.
Former presidents like Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami were centrists or reformists who believe that Iran should move in the direction of a republic where the elected officials have the last word.
Iranian President Raisi has taken Iran in the opposite direction, believing that this is an Islamic state.
He will be remembered for overseeing cutbacks that were very unpopular, in the form of subsidies for food and fuel.
The economy really took a nosedive during his three years in power. Most of all, he will be remembered for the huge crackdown in 1988,
when he was one of four members on a death commission that dispatched something like 5,000 dissidents to the hangman.
He was a ruthless justice minister, and he continued that pattern as president.
RA:?Karim, this particular supreme leader hasn’t always gotten along with his presidents.
Rouhani was seen as too close to the West. So was Akbar Rafsanjani. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was too populist for his liking.
Khatami was seen as subversive. But from everything we know,
Raisi was the supreme leader’s man. He was loyal. And Khamenei will feel his loss. How will he manage the presidential transition in the coming weeks?
KS:?I always thought of Raisi as Khamenei’s mini-me and as someone whom he cultivated for a couple of decades. This is a big blow to him. But Khamenei has a few different options.
One of them is for him to introduce his son to Iranians by having him run in the presidential election, just as he did with Raisi. I think that’s unlikely but in the realm of possibility.
Another is you go with someone who has a background in the security forces and the Revolutionary Guards, and perhaps an obvious candidate for that would be Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,
who’s the current speaker of parliament and a former Revolutionary Guard commander.
Another option is you find another mini-me. But it’s increasingly slim pickings for finding the Venn diagram of someone who both is a hard-line ideologue and has some managerial competence.
My view is that Raisi’s death really accelerates one of two likely outcomes: Iran’s transition to more of a military dictatorship or, frankly, the regime’s implosion.
RA:?Wow. Robin, I’d like you to riff on that as well. I’m also lingering on this idea of a mini-me. The supreme leader is 85 years old, while Iranian President Raisi was just 63.
Iranian President Raisi was a new generation. And I’m curious how his generation of leaders see Iran’s place in the world.
RW:?This is a big divide inside Iran. The majority of Iranians want very much to end their pariah status and want to be part of the international community,
whereas the leadership has toughed it out despite the economic challenges posed by the sanctions from Washington.
I think the toughest job in Iran is actually to be a former official. Recruiting somebody will be tricky because they’ll be worried about their own future as well. But the big picture is absolutely the future of the revolution.
There have been earlier attempts to reform it in ways that it could gradually reintegrate in the world, and in many ways that was what the nuclear deal brokered by the world’s six major powers was all about in 2015.
Once that became ineffective after U.S. President Donald Trump walked away from it, Iran had an incentive again to push on its nuclear program.
I think Iran will probably become the 10th nuclear power. After its disastrous attack on Israel and Israel’s very effective attack on its military leaders in Syria,
I think it feels increasingly insecure, even though it has the largest missile arsenal in the world. But there are a couple of obvious candidates, including a former Revolutionary Guard commander named Mohsen Rezaei,
who has run several times. It may be that they’re looking for a placeholder since elections are supposed to be held for the presidency a year from now.
So it may be that this buys them some time to have someone who’s basically a lame duck, beholden to the supreme leader, but who will not lead the important transition down the road.
RA:?Karim, amid all of this, talk to us about what the Iranian people want. It seems to me that voter participation has declined in recent years, right?
KS:?I don’t think there’s going to be much popular interest in elections. Very few Iranians still believe that they’re living under a regime that can be reformed via
the ballot box. In some ways, I’ve thought about Henry Kissinger’s famous observation that Iran has to decide whether it’s a nation or a cause.
In my view, that was a decision they had to make about 15 years ago, when they reached a crossroad.
Whenever they had to make that choice of either reform or repression, they always chose the path of repression. As long as Khamenei is alive, they’re going to stick to revolutionary ideology:
death to America, death to Israel, mandatory hijab. For the people of Iran, that’s not a system that’s capable of reform. I think many people won’t vote because voting is perceived as an act of legitimation that they don’t want to do.
RA:?Robin, and just to riff a little bit more on the democracy question, you’ve covered so many protests in Iran, from the Green Revolution movement to the Woman, Life, Freedom movement. I’m curious how that works in terms of repression.
Is it just that the regime allows outbursts from time to time to further a facade of democracy?
RW:?All of the demonstrations have been surprises and spontaneous. Iranians are a very engaged and sophisticated polity.
There have been both economic and political protests across the country, and they have particularly picked up pace since 2017.
But the regime cracks down—as we saw in 2022, with the murder of something like 500 people. So I think these tactics and tools will keep being used. The question is what the turnout is going to be at the June 28 election.
There is going to be absolute political chaos behind the scenes between now and June 28 over who is going to run. They have to have the candidates vetted by the Council of Guardians. They then have to campaign.
In the past, they’ve been having debates among the top candidates. So this is kind of an incredible schedule,
and that’s why the regime is probably very engaged in trying to manipulate the outcome so that it is in the favor of someone as close to being a mini-me of Khamenei you can find.
RA:?Karim, there’s a clear delta between the aspirations of the people and the aspirations of the regime. How long can that disconnect continue?
KS:?It can continue indefinitely. It’s oftentimes more sustainable than people think. There was a wonderful article that was written over a decade ago in the?Journal of Democracy?called “The Durability of Revolutionary Regimes,”
and the basic argument is that authoritarian governments that were spawned from a revolution tend to be more sustainable than just a run-of-the-mill dictatorship, in part because there’s this powerful organizing principle that helps to maintain cohesiveness of the security forces. That has been the case in Iran.
For over 45 years, it’s been a government that has terribly mismanaged the economy and been not only politically repressive but also socially repressive.
They try to police every aspect of your life—what you watch, what you drink, if you go out with your boyfriend or girlfriend. But there’s been very few defections from the security forces.
So we now have a dynamic in Iran in which you have a regime that perhaps has 15-20 percent popular support but they are united, they’re armed, they’re organized, and they’re ready to kill to stay in power. Repression can’t last indefinitely, but it can often last longer than we think.
RA:?Robin, how does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fit into this? Will they be looking to strengthen their position?
RW:?What’s really interesting about Khamenei is that he had no independent power base when he became the supreme leader.
So, he turned to the military. And that has been kind of a symbiotic relationship ever since. Many of the Revolutionary Guard commanders end up as his senior advisors.
And I think the IRGC, because it has penetrated society, the economy, politics, and every aspect of life, it will have an important role.