Iran: Terrorism as a Pillar of Statecraft

Iran’s Persistent Strategy of Global Influence

The Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently leveraged terrorism as a cornerstone of its foreign policy, a practice institutionalized since the 1979 revolution. This strategy, executed primarily through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force, has enabled Tehran to project power far beyond its borders while simultaneously silencing dissidents abroad. In recent years, a series of high-profile incidents has highlighted the regime's reliance on covert operations, assassination plots, and collaborations with criminal organizations, underscoring the systemic nature of this approach.

Collaboration with Criminal Organizations

As the Iranian regime grapples with internal disarray and widespread corruption, its inability to inspire or recruit ideologically driven operatives has driven it to rely increasingly on international criminal networks. Straying from its foundational revolutionary fervor, the regime has resorted to alliances with figures like Rawa Majid, the "Kurdish Fox," whose gang has been implicated in attacks on Israeli interests in Stockholm. These partnerships not only highlight Tehran's desperation but also its reliance on transnational crime syndicates to carry out espionage and sabotage. By outsourcing operations to criminals, the regime seeks plausible deniability while revealing its weakening ideological and organizational core.

Recent Assassination Plots and Retaliatory Tactics

Iran's terrorism tactics have evolved, with recent incidents highlighting its continued reliance on targeted violence.

In Europe, the regime’s audacious targeting of Alejo Vidal-Quadras, a former Vice President of the European Parliament, underscores its persistent aggression. On November 9, 2023, Vidal-Quadras was shot in the face in Madrid by an assailant who fled the scene on a motorcycle. While Vidal-Quadras survived, the attack revealed a web of international conspirators. Dutch authorities arrested Mehrez Ayari, a Tunisian national and the suspected gunman, while additional arrests across Europe highlighted Tehran’s reliance on criminal networks. Vidal-Quadras, a vocal supporter of an Iranian opposition group led by a woman, Maryam Rajavi, publicly accused the Iranian regime of orchestrating the attack, further solidifying Tehran’s reputation for silencing critics abroad.

In July 2024, U.S. law enforcement foiled an assassination plot tied to a Pakistani national with connections to Tehran. The plot sought to retaliate against the United States for the 2020 killing of a high-ranking IRGC commander. This incident followed a 2022 plot where an Iran-based IRGC operative attempted to arrange the murder of a former U.S. official.

Plots on European Soil

Europe has become a significant theater for Iranian operations. MI5 Director General Ken McCallum revealed in October 2024 that British authorities had thwarted 20 assassination and sabotage plots backed by Tehran since 2022. These included attempts targeting Iranian dissidents residing in the UK. In parallel, in September 2024, seven Israeli citizens were arrested for allegedly spying for Iran. The suspects reportedly conducted hundreds of intelligence-gathering missions, photographing sensitive sites in exchange for cryptocurrency payments.

Institutionalized Terrorism and Early Precedents

Iran's use of terrorism dates back to its revolutionary beginnings. The 1979 U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, during which 52 American diplomats were held for 444 days, set a precedent for the regime’s use of hostage-taking as a diplomatic tool. Decades later, the practice persists, as evidenced by the detention of Johan Floderus, a Swedish national and EU diplomat, in Tehran. Floderus' imprisonment is emblematic of Iran's "hostage diplomacy," wherein foreign nationals are used as leverage in negotiations with Western nations.

The IRGC has institutionalized terrorism, targeting both domestic dissidents and international adversaries. In 1992, the Mykonos restaurant assassinations in Berlin—where Iranian Kurdish leaders were killed—demonstrated the regime's willingness to deploy violence in Europe. Similarly, in 2018, a foiled bomb plot against main Iranian opposition group, National Council of Resistance or Iran (NCRI), in Paris implicated an Iranian diplomat, further illustrating the regime's brazen reach.

The Strategic Implications of State-Sponsored Terrorism

Iran's continued use of terrorism and covert operations underscores a deliberate strategy to destabilize adversaries while avoiding direct confrontation. By outsourcing violence to criminal networks and employing covert tactics, Tehran minimizes its risk of direct retaliation. However, the cumulative impact of these activities is profound, eroding international norms and posing significant challenges to global security.

As the international community grapples with Iran’s actions, it becomes evident that terrorism is not merely a tactic but a deeply ingrained pillar of the regime's statecraft. From the streets of Madrid to the corridors of Washington, Tehran’s hand is felt, leaving a trail of destabilization and fear that underscores the urgent need for a coordinated and robust response.

A Solution

To counter Iran’s persistent use of terrorism as a statecraft tool, the international community must adopt a unified strategy of isolation. One of the most impactful measures would involve the complete severance of diplomatic relations between the European Union and Tehran’s theocratic regime. Closing all EU embassies in Iran, while simultaneously shutting down Iranian embassies across EU member states, would send an unequivocal message of condemnation. Expelling the regime's diplomats from European soil would not only dismantle its diplomatic channels—often exploited to justify and enable its malign activities—but also further weaken its ability to project influence abroad.

Such decisive action would underscore the international community’s refusal to legitimize a regime that thrives on repression and aggression. It would also amplify the voices of the Iranian people, signaling global solidarity with their struggle for freedom and justice. By increasing internal pressures on the regime and stripping it of its tools for soft power and propaganda, diplomatic isolation could accelerate its inevitable collapse, paving the way for a more stable and peaceful future in the region and beyond.

Note to Readers:

This article is part of my upcoming in-depth study, The Current State of Iran: In Pursuit of Regime Change. If you are interested in receiving an early review of this work or wish to provide feedback, please share your comments. Your insights and engagement are invaluable as we strive to shed light on the challenges posed by the Iranian regime and explore pathways to a more just and peaceful future.