IRAN: A revolution in the making December 2022

IRAN: A revolution in the making

December 2022

?Overview

·????????Starting on September 16, 2022, a new wave of anti-regime protests broke out in Iran and, as of writing, it has continued for fourth months. The uprising has spread to all 31 provinces of the country, including to almost all universities and high schools. On some days during this period, at least 60 locations in Tehran alone were the scene of protests.

·????????To date, more than 700 of the demonstrators, including at least 70 under age children have been killed as a result of shootings by the regime’s repressive forces. Thousands have been injured and more than 30,000 have been arrested.

·????????Two protesters were executed in December and at least 28 others have been sentenced to execution. Some reports suggest 57 have been sentenced to death. They are prosecuted by the “Revolutionary Court” without any due process. The whole process for the two protesters who were executed last only three weeks from the date they were arrested. Both were badly tortured and one was hanged in public to further terrorize the nation. They appear incapable of suppressing teenage girls and boys, or the wider population united in their calls for the regime’s downfall.[1]

·????????Iran’s women and the youth who have borne the brunt of the regime’s repression, have made it clear in these protests that they seek nothing less than the downfall of the religious dictatorial regime that has ruined their lives, their future, and their country. For example, a 17-year-old protester in a central Iranian city, who is representative of those out on the streets challenging the regime’s security forces, told Reuters, "Hey world, hear me: I want a revolution. I want to live freely, and I am ready to die for it. Instead of dying every minute under this regime's repression, I prefer to die with their (security forces) bullets in protests for freedom".[2]

·????????By all indications, these protests are about revolution and not reforming an illegitimate regime that is incapable of being reformed. Protesters speak through their slogans. Social media is abuzz with numerous videos appearing daily, showing demonstrators chanting slogans like “Death to Dictator;" "Death to Khamenei;" "Death to the Oppressor, be it the Shah or the Leader;" and "This year is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown”.[3]

·????????Broadly speaking, people have demonstrably lost their fear of the theocracy. It is not that the regime has not marshaled its brutal Basij militia or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces or deployed its signature ruthless suppression.[4] And it has massively disrupted the internet to have an open hand in doing so. In the cities of Sanandaj and Zahedan, security forces have used machine guns and heavy weaponry in a bid to quell demonstrations, massacring dozens.[5]

·????????Protesters have confronted the brutal suppression of the regime. In dozens of cases, people arrested by the security force or plainclothes thugs (Basij militias affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Ministry of Intelligence) have been set free by protesters counterattacking against the security forces. Several Basij members have been killed during the clashes. Protesters have announced loud and clear that “We do not fear anymore, we fight”.

·????????The tragic death of Mahsa Amini while in custody set the protests in motion and was the straw that broke the camel’s back. But the protests are not a single-issue movement against “hijab” or for this or that issue. While they reject compulsory hijab, protesters are unequivocally calling for the overthrow of the regime in its entirety as can be seen from the slogans. They realize that nothing less can be viable for their future.

?How is it different from previous ones?

·????????The current round of protests in Iran have an unmistakable political overtone with a universal demand for freedom and regime change by Iranians. As pointed slogans like "Death to dictator" reveal, the protests are not driven by economic concerns or single political issues. To be clear, Iran's battered economy is certainly on the long list of public grievances. However, there is a palpable illustration of public awareness that deep-seated and multi-dimensional misery in Iran is a byproduct of the ruling regime, motivating piercing calls for total regime change. This explains why from the outset the protests were political and targeted the pinnacle of power in the regime, its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the religious dictatorial regime in its entirety. Protesters are even saying this is a revolution.

·????????The protests cut across all social and economic divides in the country, with virtually all social classes united in the call for regime overthrow. Demonstrating its social reach and depth, the nationwide movement has seen participation from university and high school students, bazaar merchants, workers, athletes, artists, performers, ethnic minorities, and lower and middle classes. They are all united against the clergy and the theocratic dictatorship.

·????????The wall of repression is showing visible cracks, and fear of the regime has been replaced with outrage, anger, and a determination to sacrifice for change as can be seen in protesters fighting back against suppressive forces.

·????????A network of organized resistance units is helping guide, support, and direct the protests and provide a mainstay of political guidance and stability for the movement and its longevity.

·????????The world has taken notice of the need to support the protesters in their democratic aspirations.

?Slogans

The protesters communicate with each other, the public and the enemy in the language of slogans. The unifying slogan has been the rejection of Khamenei and the regime with death to dictator and death to Khamenei. At this stage, the affirmative slogan has been the "Freedom, freedom, freedom" slogan. Some of the main chants includes:

·????????Death to dictator

·????????Death to Khamenei

·????????Death to the oppressor, be it the Shah or the Leader

·????????No to Monarchy, No to Theocracy, Yes to Democracy & Equality

·????????Freedom, Freedom, Freedom

·????????We will fight, we will die, we will take back our Iran

·????????Canons, tanks, machine guns are no longer effective; tell my mother she no longer has a daughter

·????????Poverty, corruption, injustice, death to this tyranny

·????????This is the year of blood, Khamenei is going to be overthrown

·????????From Kurdistan to Tehran, my life is for Iran

·????????From Zahedan to Tehran, my life is for Iran

·????????Our shame, our shame, is our scoundrel leader

·????????Our shame, our shame, is our scoundrel police

?Women’s leading role

·????????Women and youth are at the forefront of the movement. For Iran observers, women's extraordinary leadership in demanding the regime's downfall is hardly shocking. Misogyny is coded into the theocracy's DNA, so women in particular have borne the brunt of the mullahs' oppression. The pent-up anger over decades of suppression, corruption and plunder is erupting. Countless threats, intimidation, and misogynist aggression have failed to deter them. This should not surprise anyone; over 35 years of women’s leadership in the organized Resistance against the regime has created a culture of defiance among Iran’s women, who are not fighting only for their own rights; rather, their priority is to free their nation.

·????????The world has been witnessing the courage, commitment, and wisdom of the Iranian women confronting a regime that does not even consider them as second-class citizens. How did that come about? On the one hand, misogyny is the core of the ideology of Islamic fundamentalism. On the other hand, women have, for decades, played an increasingly significant role in the nationwide resistance against the regime.

·????????Women have long been in the forefront of the fight against oppression and dictatorship. During the 1988 massacre of some 30,000 political prisoners, thousands of women prisoners chose to say NO to the Ayatollahs and did not submit to their demands. It is this history of 40+ years of women fighting against the regime and paying the ultimate price that is now manifested in the schoolgirls and female university students all across Iran, whose demand is no less than the overthrow of this regime.

·????????Iranian women know that no women’s rights will ever be recognized so long as this regime is in power. Thus, women’s freedom can only be secured in a free and democratic Iran.

Rejection of Monarchial dictatorship

·????????Tehran wants to paint the protesters as either having been stirred up by foreign agitators, or as adherents to a return of the Shah’s dictatorship, in order to discredit them.

·????????However, slogans rejecting both the current theocracy and the dictatorship of the deposed Shah are heard all over Iran, both among the university students and the general public. The Washington Post reported on October 21, 2022, “One new iteration—Death to the Shah, Death to the religious leader,” captures a consistent repudiation of autocratic rule, be it a king or a cleric. The New York Times reported on September 22, 2022, “In the northern city of Rasht, protesters took over a street, chanting, ‘Death to the dictator!’ and ‘Death to the oppressor, be it the shah or the supreme leader!’” ?There have been numerous video clips, certainly in hundreds, where in different parts of the country this slogan has been chanted by the protestors.?

·????????This popular slogan is clear indication that people of Iran want to end the theocratic regime, which means they want separation of religion and state. They also reject shah’s dictatorship, which means no to monarch system. And Finally, the role of women is a clear indication that gender equality must be and will be the core of the future system in Iran.?

·????????In the west sometimes it is argued that the uprising will not succeed unless the military forces of the regime change sides. Looking at the history of Iran, the Army has never had a dominant role in the internal situation. Shah had the largest and most sophisticated army of the regime in 1979, but could not help him to counter the people’s revolution. Khamenei essentially relies on the IRGC, but crack has already appeared in the lower ranking members of IRGC and its paramilitary force, Bassij. However, the top brass of the military has been warned by the protesters, and yet when the time comes, the subordinate units and forces will undoubtedly will change side.

?“Syrianization and Libyanization”

·????????The regime has fanned “Uprising Phobia” by promoting and insinuating “Syrianization” or “Libyanization” of Iran, a clearly incongruous comparison that ignores Iran’s history, its social development, and the nature of the uprising. The current uprising has cut through class, gender, ethnicity, and religious belief and is wholly united on the slogans of “Death to Khamenei” (overthrow), and “Death to the oppressor, be it is the Shah or the Leader” (charting a path forward to a democratic republic). It is not a battle between classes, or ethnicities, or religious groups, and does not pit a social or political majority against a minority. It is a unified struggle to fundamentally change Iran through regime overthrow and establish a democratic, pluralist republic based on the separation of religion and state.

Role of organized opposition

·????????One key element that has been missing from Western governments or even foreign policy experts, is the voice of the Iranian people and role of Iran’s organized opposition. Western analysis is essentially based on the narrative of the Iranian regime, which promotes this false notion that the opposition is week and fragmented and portray the regime as being formidable and unlikely to change.

·????????This notion is very similar to the notion existed in Western countries even in late 1970s.??On 31 December 1977, only 13 months before shah’s overthrown, President Carter said “Iran, because of the great leadership of the Shah, is an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world.[6]”

·????????Therefore, any comprehensive study of Iran requires to consider the role of the MEK and its over four decades of opposition to the current regime. Regardless of one’s view on the organization, they are certainly a player in any development in Iran. The following is a short look into their role in the current situation.

?·????????In 2014, the Resistance Units began their campaign on a small scale by writing graffiti against regime officials (including the slogan, “Death to Khamenei”), tearing down photographs of regime leaders, chanting slogans in the streets, burning regime symbols, and distributing leaflets. These Units can be found in any educational establishment, workplace or neighborhood. Because they are so embedded, the regime has failed in its efforts to eliminate them.

·????????These units are not clandestine although they maintain operational secrecy. They are organic and integrated with their social environment and respective communities and actively interact with society. Their members hold jobs, have families, and have the capacity to sustain their requirements in a way that affords them the ability to regroup and reconstitute as required.

·????????In the uprisings of 2017 and 2019, the Resistance Units took an active role, not only in protest but in providing real time and detailed reports on events in different cities and regions. Based on the information the Units provided from inside the country, the NCRI was able to announce that 1,500 had been killed during the November 2019 uprising, a number later confirmed by the regime, and to publish the names of 900 of the victims.?

·????????The Resistance Units played an important role in providing accurate and continuous information during the Coronavirus outbreak. By regularly checking hospitals and cemeteries, and by obtaining secret information from within the regime, the Units were able to inform the people and the world about Covid-19’s disastrous human toll in Iran.

·????????In July 2021, about 1,000 Resistance Units sent video messages of solidarity with the Free Iran World Summit of the NCRI convened online. In July 2022, this number had increased to 5,000 Resistance Units, unveiling a 500% growth in the number of these units despite the regime's brutal reign of terror and repression.

·????????Their activities, especially during the past year, have had a serious impact on cracking the wall of repression throughout the country. Activities such as torching of a statue of Qassem Soleimani, the former Quds Force commander, only a few hours after its unveiling, and targeting of regime centers of repression have been instrumental in highlighting the regime’s vulnerabilities. Regime authorities have, in desperation, acknowledged that Resistance Units are becoming a force to reckon with.

·????????Torching and targeting the regime's centers of repression and symbols, which are highly despised in society, provides an inspiration and a practical model for many young people during the recent protests. The Resistance Units' activities have thus triggered and spread the spirit of resistance and provided self-confidence to stand up to the regime and its repressive forces among the younger generations.

·????????Resistance Units ensure that protests are sustained and organized. They have become role models for the younger generations, showing them the viable way forward in challenging the regime.

·????????Objective conditions in society, such as the denial of basic human and civil rights, the lack of freedoms, and economic hardships caused by political repression, dictatorship, corruption, and mismanagement of the regime, have created unresolved and profound social and political grievances that continuously foment the formation and expansion of Resistance Units.?

·????????In the past few years, hundreds of members of Resistance Units and thousands of people connected to these units socially, have been arrested.[7] Some have been subjected to severe torture, sentenced to long-term prison and some have even been sentenced to execution. But the regime has not been able to stem the tide of unit formation and expansion. To the contrary, the trend of Resistance Units forming and expanding has steadily increased throughout the country.

·????????The current uprising has seen a sharp rise in recruitment and formation as the usual security and repressive barriers have been lessened due to the whole of society engaging in a general uprising against the entirety of the regime.

?More on the Role of Resistance Units in current uprising

·????????The role and function of Resistance Units in recent protests are multifaceted. Resistance Units have been actively present in the protests and played a guiding role in many areas. The slogans of these protests, reflect the political line and platform of the Iranian Resistance (NCRI) and MEK, and it is clear that the whole nation has coalesced and unified on these slogans, also an indication of the uprising's organized nature. Creating and maintaining and expanding such an organization is one of the primary functions of the Resistance Units.

·????????The regime has systematically fielded its plainclothes Basij and intelligence agents to infiltrate protests and take control of gatherings to influence slogans in a divisive fashion by fanning slogans that are harmless to the regime or diversionary to the protesters' stated goal of regime downfall. The regime uses such slogans to weave a narrative of a single-issue grievances that do not threaten or question the entirety of its rule. Resistance Units have been able to neutralize such plots and have focused slogans sharply on the imperative to overthrow the regime and to reject all forms of dictatorship as in the past. Protesters have successfully identified and expelled the regime’s agents from the protests after identifying them.

·????????Another function of Resistance Units has been to buoy protesters’ spirit in the face of oppressive forces of the regime by countering regime violence and attacks conducted by "plainclothes" agents of the Basij. The Basij played a crucial role in suppressing the protests of 2019 and 2017. The protesters are not afraid of the regime’s suppressive forces as has been seen during these protests precisely due to the existence of the Resistance Unit members among them and their organized role in fending off regime attacks and maintaining the protests' cohesion and thus prolonging the uprising.

·????????The regime’s top leaders, as well as various senior and lower-ranking officials, constantly express alarm and anxiety over the growing role of the MEK and its Resistance Units inside Iran. In a bid to discourage university students to join the ranks of the resistance units, the regime's president Ebrahim Raisi said in a speech to a group of Sharif University officials on October 6, 2022: " We are sure that the Sharif students will not allow ill-wishers and Hypocrites [MEK] to distort this university."[8] Recounting events during the current unrest, a member of the Parliament's Security commission, Javad Karimi Qoddousi, described the protests as planned and organized, before proceeding to provide a detailed account of such activities: "In these incidents, based on what was seen, teams of five people... destroy the place. They leave quickly, and another four come from the other side."[9] Similarly, the Friday Prayer leader and Khamenei's representative in Bandar Abbas, Mohammad Ebadizadeh, was quoted by the semi-official Mehr News agency as saying that "The recent rioters were from the organized groups of MEK, who were also trained."[10]

?UK Policy on Iran needs to change

A significant change is in the making in Iran. The balance of power has shifted from the regime in favour of the Iranian people and forces seeking a democratic change in Iran, spearheaded by the organised resistance, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).

It is therefore time for the UK and Western Governments to change their policy toward Iran in response to this reality.

The UK and international community should recognise the Iranian people’s right to resist and defend themselves against the brutal repression of the religious dictatorship and its terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Today, the regime in Iran is a serious threat not only to the Iranian people but also to the region and the whole international community. The world is suffering from terrorism, war, and insecurity because of the religious tyranny in Iran. But the current popular uprising promising a forthcoming revolution in Iran has a gift for the Middle East and the world, which is peace, friendship, and peaceful coexistence.

In such circumstances, the regime would do everything to prevent the UK and international partners from providing practical support to the nationwide uprising.

Unfortunately, the UK's diplomacy is more cautious of observing the Supreme Leader Khamenei's red lines and not upsetting the mullahs in Iran.

Since the start of the current uprising, the UK has increased pressure on the regime with sanctions, diplomatic protests and implemented measures at the UN to ensure the regime is held to account for its violent repression of the protests.

In practice, however, the UK and its international partners are still trying to reach an agreement with the regime under the pretext of reviving the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPoA.

While Supreme Leader Khamenei, in his public speeches, rejects any form of agreement on the nuclear programme, he leaves the doors open to secretly exchange messages through mediators.

He ensures that nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 group continue and the West’s illusion of a diplomatic solution never dies because the regime needs to continue the talks with the West to confront the nationwide uprising at home.

The time has come for western governments to end this policy and listen to the voice of the Iranian people and their popular resistance, who have kept the flame of resistance for freedom alight for four decades by paying the heaviest price.

Every day for the past four months, we have heard this cry from the streets of many Iranian cities that people are moving toward the regime’s overthrow.

It is time for the UK and all Western governments to realise that the regime in Iran has no future and support the Iranian people’s struggle for regime change and a free and democratic Iran.

UK’s new policy on Iran

Iran’s people have risen to defeat the religious tyranny and its repression and terrorism. They have chosen to pay the price of freedom with their blood.

The UK and the whole international community should rise in solidarity by helping the Iranian people realise their democratic aspirations, which the UK Government can do by taking the following necessary steps:

• Recognise the legitimacy of the fight of the Iranian people against the evil and terrorist forces of the IRGC and officially recognise the Iranian people’s revolution to establish a republic based on democratic values.
• Recognise that the people of Iran have a democratic alternative whose goals are enshrined in the Ten-point Plan articulated by Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and support this Iranian solution as recommended by over 230 cross-party members from both the House of Commons and the House of Lords in their joint statement in December 2022.
• Refer the regime’s appalling dossier of systematic violations of human rights and crimes against humanity to the United Nations Security Council for adoption of binding and deterrent measures. The regime leaders must be brought to justice to end impunity and prevent the cycle of crime and terror.
• Proscribe the IRGC in its entirety to deny it funds and resources it needs to crush the nationwide uprising and export terrorism abroad.
• Expel the regime from the United Nations and its various organs because this illegitimate regime does not in any way represent the people of Iran.
• Close the regime’s embassy and affiliated institutions as well as expel diplomats and agents of the regime in the UK that provide support to violent repression of dissidents and activists in the UK.
• Stop any form of negotiation and concessions to the criminal rulers of Iran.
• In view of death sentences against protesters detained during the current uprising, act immediately together with international partners to make sure the international fact-finding mission created by the UN Human Rights Council visits the prisons in Iran and speaks with the detained protesters and political prisoners as soon as possible.

? Conclusion

1.??Beyond the sporadic protests or even nationwide uprisings, current developments in Iran reveal a path leading to a democratic revolution. The Iranian people, who overthrew the monarchical dictatorship in 1979 and are today revolting against the ruling religious dictatorship, are paving the way for the downfall of the theocratic dictatorship and the establishment of a free, democratic, secular, and pluralistic republic. This revolution rejects all forms of dictatorship and despotism, whether it be a monarchy or one that operates under the guise of religion. The Iranian people reject misogyny and recognize full gender equality in all aspects, especially in political leadership. This will be a revolution in favor of a democratic republic based on the separation of religion and state.

?2.??The persistence and longevity of anti-regime demonstrations throughout the country and the salient feature of this recent uprising is that the people of Iran will not settle for anything less than the overthrow of this regime and the rejection of any authoritarian or dictatorial rule. The passion and enthusiasm of the younger generations to push aside the repressive forces in their resolute quest for freedom represents the broader society's nod in favor of the long-held strategy advocated by the MEK and the Iranian Resistance to overthrow the regime in its entirety. This strategy also rejects any unrealistic notion of cooperation with segments of the repressive forces such as the IRGC. Judging by the longevity and determined character of the nationwide uprisings, democratic revolution in Iran is on its way. The overthrow of the mullahs' regime seems to be more accessible than ever.

??– END –

? [1] "A barrier of fear has been broken in Iran. The regime may be at a point of no return," CNN, October, 5, 2022.

[2] "Iran toughens crackdown as some oil workers reported to join protests," Reuters, October 11, 2022.

[3] "The Protests in Iran Have Shaken the Islamic Republic to Its Core," TIME, September 24, 2022.

[4] "Leaked documents reveal top-level orders to armed forces to ‘mercilessly confront’ protesters," Amnesty International, September 30, 2022.

[5] "Iran: At least 82 Baluchi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown," Amnesty International, October 6, 2022.

[6] The American Presidency Project, 21 December, 1977

[7] For example, on April 24, 2019, an intelligence official of the regime in West Azarbaijan Province announced that in one instance, 110 people have been "dealt with" for communicating with the MEK. Also in 2019, the Iranian Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi said: “Over the past year, we have confronted 116 [resistance] units affiliated with the MEK," calling the operation "epic."

[8] State-affiliated Farda News, October 6, 2022.

[9] Khorasan TV channel, September 29, 2022.

[10] Mehr News Agency, September 30, 2022.