Iran Protests, US Renewed Efforts to Prevent A Nuclear-Armed Iran, Baghdad-Tehran Ties, and More

This week, we will cover the latest developments in the Iran nuclear talks, Iran-Iraq relations, and the ongoing protests in Iran.

In light of Iran’s accelerating nuclear program and Israel-US joint air drill simulating striking Iranian nuclear sites, we are featuring a strategic analysis from Assaf Orion's article titled "The Abraham Accords: Iceberg Surfacing for Peace and Security in the Middle East" for this week’s Iran Strategy Deconstructed. In this policy paper, he argues that Israel's move from the US European Command to the US Central Command under the updated Unified Command Plan (UCP) was a key step towards stronger defence cooperation among America’s partners and allies in the region.

Top Stories

Iran Nuclear Program: US-Israel Joint Effort to Prevent a Nuclear Iran

• As nuclear talks between Iran and world powers remain stalled, both the US and Israeli militaries have recently conducted several drills, sending a clear message to Iran that the military option is on the table. The drills simulated a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.?
• The US envoy for Iran and chief nuclear negotiator, Rob Malley, has claimed that the military option remains on the table while keeping the doors of diplomacy open with Iran. On the other hand, Malley argued against the Trump administration's maximum pressure against Iran, stating that "we owe it to ourselves to have an honest examination of how sanctions work and how they don’t work", pointing to US sanctions’ failure to halt Iran’s nuclear program.?
• Iran continues to advance its nuclear capability, tripling its capacity for enriching uranium to up to 60%. It must be noted that enrichment of up to 90% constitutes weapons-grade levels of enrichment.
• The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear chief Rafael Grossi says that relations with Iran "need to get back on track" and that he remains hopeful about resolving the nuclear probe issue. The country remains at odds with the IAEA regarding nuclear information it should be provided to the agency.?
• The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister has stated that “Iran is ready to quickly complete negotiations on JCPOA restoration, there are no unsolvable problems or an impasse.”

What Experts Say

Ellie Geranmayeh, writer for the Washington Post:

“It is irresponsible to risk everything on the hope that a peaceful transition of power will place Iran’s nuclear program under democratic and safe control anytime soon. This means that the Europeans and the Biden administration need to find a diplomatic path out of the nuclear crisis. They should remain wary of taking any steps that would tie their hands and foreclose the possibility of a political deal.”

Anchal Vohra, columnist for Foreign Policy:

“If the JCPOA is indeed dead, what comes next? Iran might already be a nuclear threshold state and could soon produce a nuclear weapon. The region might plunge into an arms race, with a ramping-up of dangerous spy games between Iran and Israel. There might even be a military confrontation, with the United States involved.”

Iran Strategy Deconstructed

Israel-US Joint Military Efforts Aimed at Deterring Iran

Assaf Orion, Senior Researcher at the INSS and Former Head of Strategic Division at IDF General Staff’s Planning Directorate

The following segments are taken from Assaf Orion's "The Abraham Accords: Iceberg Surfacing for Peace and Security in the Middle East" article. The piece was published as part of IPD’s policy paper series, Deconstructing the Changing Middle East Security Architecture.

Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles are an evident threat to many regional actors. Regional air defence as an integrated system is a tall order, due to the technical, security and geographic dimensions of such integration. Yet lower steps of synergy, as mentioned, are already in the works. Intelligence can provide indications for threats and forward and long-range radars can give earlier warning and deeper awareness, with US CENTCOM as the integrating agent in a regional architecture. On air defences, one may envision a gradual growth of regional capabilities and interconnectivity. US and Israeli systems already protect some partners’ skies, as can be inferred from reported THAAD and Spider systems in the Emirates and more can be provided down the road. Deeper into the future, Israel’s advances in laser-based air defence systems may be boosted by Gulf funding and US production, augmenting the multi-tier defence architecture already in place. Gulf resources may also fund common ammunition reserves under CENTCOM stewardship, to include precision arms, such as JDAMs and missile interceptors for use in case of emergency.

Iran-Iraq Relations: Two Countries Hope to Boost Bilateral Ties, Focus on Border Security amid Tensions with Kurdish Militant Groups

• Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has paid an official visit to Iran, hoping to boost economic, political, and security relations between the two countries. Iranian officials have stated that the Iraqi delegation has promised to disarm Kurdish militant groups located in Iraqi Kurdistan.?
• Following his visit to Iran, Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani ordered the country's military to tighten security along the borders shared with Iran and Turkey. Major General Yahya Rasool, spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of Iraq's Armed Forces, stated that "Iraq refuses for its land to be used to attack any neighbouring country..."
• Iran and Iraq signed a $4 billion engineering agreement. The contract concerns the export of technical and engineering services within Iraq, intended to compensate for the decrease in Iranian non-electricity exports to Iraq.?
• The Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia in Iraq has released a statement, threatening Saudi Arabia and stating that "the optimal solution to deal with the Saudi entity is to establish an alliance from the countries affected by its criminal deeds to transfer the conflicts into the streets of Riyadh."
• Iran had earlier threatened Iraq with a ground military offensive in the country's Kurdish regions if the Iraqi army fails to fortify the shared border between Iran and Iraq against the incursion of Kurdish militant groups.?

What Experts Say

Birgit Svensson, Writer for Qantara:?

“Who would have thought that Iraq’s capital Baghdad would ever be safer than the Kurdish metropolis of Erbil? Not long ago, the three Kurdish provinces of Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Dohuk in northern Iraq were considered a safe haven from the rampant terror in the rest of the country. Erbil was green on the security map, Baghdad red…for weeks, neighbouring Turkey and Iran have both been targeting the Kurdish areas in northern Iraq…Iran's ruling clerics accuse the exile groups in northern Iraq of fuelling the nationwide protests against the government and the Islamic system of rule in Iran.”

Raya Jalabi and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, writers for the Financial Times:?

• “Although the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) gained self-rule in the 1990s, it largely depends on the federal government in Baghdad for its budget and security needs. It must therefore balance its Kurdish solidarity with a need to pacify Baghdad, itself under pressure from Iran. New Iraqi premier Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s fledgling government is buttressed by parties and militia groups close to Tehran. Sudani has condemned recent attacks on the Kurds by Tehran as a “violation of Iraqi sovereignty” and has urged its neighbours not to use Iraq as an arena “to settle scores”. But Iran has made its intentions clear: the country’s Revolutionary Guards will launch more air attacks if the dissident groups are not disarmed.”

Iran Protests: Iran’s Conflicting Statements on Ending of the Morality Police, Release of Prisoners, New Death Sentences, and the UNHRC Vote Against Iran?

• Iran’s Attorney General has tacitly declared the end of the morality police while announcing that Iran’s parliament and its judiciary are reviewing the country’s hijab laws and will report on any potential amendments and reforms in 15 days. Yet, there have been controversies as to whether this claim translates into an action backed by law.
• Iran has released more than 700 prisoners, including prominent dissident activists, football players, and artists.?
• The Iranian judiciary has issued verdicts that carry the death penalty for several more people, alleging that some of the defendants were responsible for instigating riots (such as burning garbage cans), while other defendants were allegedly held responsible for killing security forces.
• The United Nations Human Rights Council has voted to investigate human rights abuses. In response, Iran has rejected the investigation and will not be cooperating with the council. More than 300 people have been confirmed killed in the unrest so far, with thousands injured and arrested.
• The commander of Iran's Basij Organization has stated that Washington is engaged in a hybrid war against the country, claiming that dozens of foreign spy agencies are behind the protests.
• Israeli Intelligence General Amir Saar has said that the Islamic Republic will survive these protests. However, he continued to state that "even if these protests wane, the reasons (for them) will remain, and thus the Iranian regime has a problem for years to come."?

What Experts Say

News analysis published by France 24:?

“While there have been protests in Iran before, this movement is unprecedented due to the duration, its spread across provinces, social classes and ethnic groups and readiness to openly call for the end of the clerical regime…in an apparent response to the protests, Iran's prosecutor general said Saturday that the morality police had been abolished. Activists received the declaration with skepticism, given the continued legal obligation for women to wear a headscarf...unlike when Khomeini challenged the shah from exile in the late 1970s, there is no single leader to the protest movement."

Amatzia Baram, writer for GIS Reports:

“While the anti-regime sentiment of Iranians is spreading, the government may survive the current unrest…the regime has not yet resorted to Syria’s Bashar al-Assad-style mass murder, fearing that such a step would provoke an unbridgeable chasm. Instead, Iran’s leaders are biding their time, hoping that the leaderless demonstrators will tire and lose interest…the demonstrations are limited mostly to the young and educated class. Their numbers are in the hundreds or the thousands...a split at the top of the regime or among security organs is not yet evident...walk-offs (labour strikes) have happened, but they have been few and far between...the demonstrators do not have central leadership or a single leader."

Iran Under the Radar

• Iran’s latest interactions with Oman, Qatar, and Russia suggest that there are renewed diplomatic efforts to help revive the JCPOA as Washington still signals appetite for a diplomatic resolution of the nuclear issue amid publicized assessments (by the US & Israel) that the Islamic Republic will survive the nationwide protests.
• Iran and Turkey are both pressuring the Iraqi central government to crackdown on Kurdish militant groups positioned in the Iraqi Kurdish region. The two countries will likely continue to employ their hard and soft power to quell these organizations.

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