Iran and Israel's Ongoing Conflict and the potential peace process through UAE

Iran and Israel's Ongoing Conflict and the potential peace process through UAE

By: Samuel Shay, December 2021

Executive Summary:

Iranian-Israeli tensions seem to be on the rise, despite the fact that the conflict has been going on for decades. According to analysts, it used to be a shadow battle of clandestine actions, sabotage, and proxy combat. It is now becoming a significant military battle between the long-standing regional foes. Israeli authorities have explicitly threatened direct military action against Iran in response to a fatal drone assault on an Israeli-managed tanker off the coast of Oman on July 29. They have linked Iran to the attack. An escalation of this kind might result in various unanticipated consequences, the worst of which could be the transition of Iran's military posture from a primarily defensive to an aggressive one. Several US sources are quoted in a New York Times article claiming Israeli commandos had attacked Iranian container ships at least ten times since the beginning of 2019. Iran has retaliated by launching its own covert

strikes against Israeli naval vessels. Iranian officials were initially suspected of being behind an assault on the Israeli cargo vessel Lori in the Arabian Gulf in March 2021.

After strikes on tankers off the coast of the Gulf of Aden and on Saudi oil facilities, the United Arab Emirates began interacting with Iran in 2019. Earlier this year, the Sunni Muslim state of Saudi Arabia initiated direct discussions with Iran. Riyadh described the negotiations as "cordial" though - and primarily improvisational.

UAE-Tehran diplomatic dialogue:

An official from the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Tahnoon, visited Iran for the first time in more than a year. When the United Arab Emirates announced in 2020 that it would normalize ties with Israel, Iran called it a betrayal of the Palestinian people's right to self-determination.

When asked when a UAE team will go to Tehran for discussions, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, said, "I hope that it is as quickly as feasible and that all our allies are aware of it," to a press release on November 30. On December 8, 2021, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE's national security advisor, traveled to Tehran and spoke with senior Iranian officials, therefore marking a diplomatic action that observers see as a further step toward restoring bilateral relations and regional peace. In this visit, Sheikh Tahnoon met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Secretary of the country's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani, who had both summoned the Emirati authorities.

While meeting with Raisi, the UAE's defense minister made clear to him and the Iranian president that repairing ties with Iran is a priority for his country. Additionally, in a tweet, Anwar Gargash stated that Sheikh Tahnoon's meeting was pleased to have the opportunity to strengthen regional economic integration as even the UAE aims to increase safety and growth in the region. As a part of these efforts, it is making efforts to expand its positive relations with countries worldwide through conversation & mutual strategies.

Is the UAE positioned to become a conduit for Israel's peace talks with Iran:

It has been decided that the United Arab Emirates would restore ties with Israel, clearing the path for other Arab countries to do so as well, but this has enraged the Palestinian people. With the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the two nations should be able to resume their previous friendly ties. Business contacts, tourism, direct flights, scientific collaboration, and, in time, complete diplomatic relationships at the ambassadorial level are among the activities that will be pursued. On the other hand, the Emiratis are not likely to establish an embassy in Jerusalem. A significant component of the Accord, while it is not explicitly stated, is increased security cooperation against regional challenges, particularly those posed by Iran and its proxies. It is crucial to note that Israel and the United Arab Emirates apparently already have security links, but the pact takes such relationships into the light of

public scrutiny. The Iranian government has been outspoken in its opposition to the agreement. It is more than just a piece of rhetoric. However, it seems that the UAE's agreement with Israel and Iran will act as a catalyst or stepping stone for a peaceful conversation between Iran and Israel in the future.

The United Arab Emirates seems to have no fantasies regarding Tehran, its nuclear ambitions, or its desire to expand its influence in the Middle East. It wants to preserve a positive relationship with Iran, but this does not conflict with its desire to maintain a positive relationship with Israel. Furthermore, Jerusalem pays close attention to the probable consequences of the nuclear discussions in Vienna on the changing regional alliances. Even as Iranian negotiators explore the specifics of a potential new agreement, Israel is becoming more uneasy. Whether or if the United States projects power in the negotiating room will impact the regional political balance, it will undoubtedly have an impact.

Benefits of Israel and Iran Peace Dialogue to UAE:

Economic and geographic considerations usually influence the UAE's policy to Iran. Thus, although the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has expressed

great worry about Iran's foreign policies, the Arab nation has maintained a thriving and flourishing trading relationship with its neighbor countries across the Gulf Region. They did really do USD 19 billion worth of business with one another in 2018. The UAE will be satisfied with Iran's outreach to Israel since it has assigned the city of Jerusalem to the role of facilitator, assisting Israel in its efforts to improve relations with other Arab nations. Through its backing for nonstate armed organizations, it should refrain from destabilizing the area. When the prospect of war is no longer present, the United Arab Emirates will develop its economy by promoting its industrial sectors, such as the tourist industry, its exports, and particularly its manufactured products. The United Arab Emirates will move up the ranks of rapidly developing nations via peaceful discussion between Iran and Israel.

Discussion:

As both Israel and the United Arab Emirates are concerned about Iran, the two countries regard the danger differently. As a result of their shared goal to prevent conflict with one another, the UAE and Iran authorities are likely to continue their attempts to de-escalate the situation and find more common ground in the coming months, according to analysts. Both the United Arab Emirates and Iran have coordinated to forge pragmatic cooperation despite their respective governments' fiery posturing.