Iran Could Extract Political Concessions Instead of Retaliation Against Israel

By Mohammad Javad Mousavizadeh –

#Iran may benefit from a restrained approach, focusing on political and economic concessions rather than immediate retaliation. This approach may allow #Tehran to recover internally and avoid further tensions, positioning itself as a restrained actor focused on diplomacy over conflict.?

Israel launched pre-dawn airstrikes against military targets in Iran on last Saturday in response to a recent rain of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at #Israel in the first of October. This marked the first time Israel has publicly acknowledged a direct strike on Iranian territory. According to the Israeli military, their aircraft targeted facilities used to produce the missiles launched by Iran, along with specific surface-to-air missile sites.

Currently, opinions vary widely on how Iran might respond to Israel's strike. Some analysts speculate that Iran will retaliate, while others suggest Iran may refrain from a direct military response. This hard decision could shape the region's situation in the coming months.

Iran may benefit from a restrained approach, focusing on political and economic concessions rather than immediate retaliation. This strategy would allow Tehran to avoid direct conflict with Israel, creating an opportunity to recover its economy, which has been under severe strain. Also, the reduction of public anxiety would likely benefit the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on promises to revitalize the economy and remove US sanctions.

Additionally, by delaying retaliation, Iran could turn the tables on Israel, leaving it in a state of anticipation and uncertainty. This strategic delay could also be leveraged to reopen #nuclear negotiations with the United States and #European powers specifically by some mediators like #Qatar and #Oman. Iran might use its restraint as a bargaining chip, proposing talks on the nuclear program, or reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (#JCPOA), which could lead to sanctions relief.

Iran could also use the threat of retaliation as leverage to pressure the #US and Israel into implementing a full ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. By pursuing this, Iran could provide its allies—Hezbollah and Hamas—much-needed time to regroup and rehabilitate and avoid further losses. As Israeli forces continue to aggressively target Hezbollah and Hamas assets, Iran may aim to protect its regional influence without escalating military conflict.

?Iran is also carefully weighing the costs and risks of any potential military response, given Israel’s advanced air defense systems, such as the American-supplied THAAD system. Should these defenses effectively neutralize an Iranian missile strike, it would represent a significant strategic loss for Iran.

While achieving sanctions relief, ceasefires, and a revived nuclear agreement—may be challenging, Iran still has options to negotiate and seek concessions. This could include easing sanctions or gaining other economic incentives from the #Biden administration while keeping Israel in a state of uncertainty.

After the recent Israeli strikes, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei addressed the nation, displaying a measured tone and leaving the decision on retaliation to Iranian authorities, a signal that Iran is open to carefully considering its response. In fact, Khamenei did not use words of retaliation in his speech. This approach allows Iran time to assess the situation realistically, with an eye toward de-escalating tensions. With U.S. forces and additional military resources already positioned in the region, Iran’s leaders seem inclined to break the cycle of violence and seek a diplomatic advantage. This current strategic stance from Tehran suggests diplomatic and economic gains as prime consideration over immediate military action.

Also, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Tehran on Saturday against responding to Israel's strikes on military sites in Iran. "Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel's strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange," #Austin said in a statement.

Iran finds itself increasingly alone in the region to fight against Israel. Its closest political ally, Russia, has recently shown a more neutral stance. Russian President Vladimir #Putin indicated his willingness to mediate between Israel and Iran, suggesting that Moscow would prefer de-escalation rather than supporting any military confrontation. For Iran, an overt retaliation against Israel could jeopardize its understanding with Russia, further escalate tensions, and potentially provoke the U.S. and Israel to take additional measures against Tehran.

Additionally, Iran’s air defense system sustained damage in recent Israeli strikes, resulting in the deaths of five service members. Some reports indicate that Iran may require significant time to restore and upgrade its defense capabilities to prepare for potential future attacks.

At the same time, Iran faces additional pressure from the European Union and Gulf countries, which have stated inaccurate claims over three islands in the Persian Gulf—Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb. These islands are under Iranian control and have long been a source of controversial conflicts in the region.

While Iran maintains that its sovereignty over the islands is non-negotiable, some regional and Western actors have called for discussions regarding their ownership, which adds another layer of diplomatic strain. Thus, even as Israel has openly violated Iran’s airspace, Iran’s territorial ownership over the three islands leave it in a delicate position.

On the domestic front, Iran is fighting with severe economic difficulties and mounting security concerns. Just as Israel launched its recent airstrikes, a militant group in eastern Iran, Jaish al-Adl, claimed responsibility for an attack that killed ten Iranian service members, remembering the country’s ongoing security vulnerabilities. Coupled with economic challenges that continue to affect the lives of ordinary Iranians.

In this challenging environment, Iran may find it more advantageous to practice restraint and explore political ways rather than engage in a direct military response.

By opting for diplomacy, Iran could aim to negotiate economic concessions or sanctions relief from the United States and Western allies. This approach may allow Tehran to recover internally and avoid further tensions, positioning itself as a restrained actor focused on diplomacy over conflict.?

Following Israel's recent strike on Iran, Tehran received notable diplomatic support from several countries. Oman, #Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, #Iraq, Qatar, #Switzerland, and #Bahrain issued statements condemning Israel’s actions. This diplomatic backing provides Iran with an opportunity to leverage international pressure against Israel. However, any military #retaliation by Iran at this moment could undermine these alliances and potentially shift the diplomatic landscape against Tehran.