iPhone Results Early Look: Fewer Bargains, More Margins

iPhone Results Early Look: Fewer Bargains, More Margins

  • We’re expecting good and bad news for Apple’s Jan-Mar results.
  • The bad news is iPhone global volumes could shrink by low single-digits, impacted by a big YoY dip in US demand.
  • The good news is the sales mix – more people are buying the latest flagship iPhone 13 than cheaper and older models.
  • This adds more fuel to rumours around the company’s possible hardware leasing program.?In the US, where the share of new iPhone buyers hit 80% during the period, hardware leasing seems like the next step in lowering iOS flagship ownership barriers well below $799.
  • Our?Monthly Market Pulse Flagship Model, February 2022 Edition ?provides an early look and full iPhone model sell-through breakdowns for the past 12 months, along with coverage of 200+ other key models.

The Pivot to Foldables

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  • When will the foldable smartphone form-factor become mainstream?
  • Looking at the share of global foldable smartphone TAM we’re only forecasting 1.1% this year.?And it’s likely to remain low-ish single digits through our forecast period.
  • Perhaps more relevant is asking which vendor is pivoting fastest to foldable smartphones – and the obvious answer is Samsung.
  • But the more interesting one is Apple.

Smartphone Sales:?Bad News On a Good Friday

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  • Asia is leading the declines with India and Western Europe in the best shape.
  • Lots of pain being felt in ‘APAC Others’; we’re not seeing one specific country being hit hard, rather the region overall from Chinese OEM supply constraints.
  • We’ll see a slightly different picture emerging if the comparisons are on revenue share. We’ll provide this in an upcoming post.

Feel free to contact us at?[email protected] or here ?for questions regarding our latest research and insights.

For more research from the technology industry, follow Counterpoint Research.

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