Invisible Hand.

Sometimes you need to slow down so that you can speed up.?A simple, quiet pause can give you an opportunity to pivot or dodge the ball.?You probably know that the NASDAQ reached an all-time high on November 22nd and the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on January 4th.?Since those milestones, you have probably seen your hard-earned 401K/IRA and precious portfolio take a 30% haircut. Yet your “investment guy or gal” insists you stay the course and take advantage of dollar-cost-averaging.?Remember, no one can time the market.?Or so they say. And to think they take a 0.61% or more annual cut for that insightful advice. At the other end of the table, the billionaires and smart money seems to always find a way to time the market. Have you noticed? After more than two years of $10 trillion in financial stimulus in America, super-bubbles are forming and little grandma’s blue bungalow down off Main Street is now selling for more than $1 million. We are in the Twilight Zone. When you consider our $88 trillion world economy; it won’t be easy to unwind the $600 trillion in global wealth and super-inflated asset classes like real estate and equities. The Quadrillion $ global derivatives market is like a giant, toothy monster hiding in the closet down the hall. The wild voices in the market -who seem to be a lot more right than they are wrong over time- are saying we still have another 40% drop expected in 2023 or 2024 before the world figures out how to deleverage the massive debt bombs and derivatives. Economics is truly The Dismal Science – and it is once again going to teach us hard lessons we should have learned in school a long time ago.

Like a quiet blip on a green screen in the dark of night, our national debt crossed the $30 trillion threshold last week. No fanfare and barely a mention.?In fact, you probably missed it; most did. In the last 20 years, the average home price in America rose from $120,000 in 2007 to $420,000 in 2022. In the same period, inflation has been almost a cumulative 40% and the American Dream is requiring a lot more Xanax to achieve these days. Especially for young Americans. Maybe Covid-19 was a big reset and provided remarkable, new clarity to people? Perhaps many now realize that life is rather short - and Ozzy’s “Crazy Train” shouldn’t be a signature theme song? ?Are these reasons for The Great Resignations, Quiet Quitting, or Downshifting trends taking a firm hold in the largest and most productive economy on Planet Earth?? Time will tell; and no doubt we will gain sharper clarity and perspective in the coming years.

Maybe we should pay attention. Most people know a lot more about the characters on weekly episodes of The Bachelor or Bachelorette, or all the game scores on the weekend, than they do about the really important stuff. ?Give them circuses and bread to keep them distracted? The economics of our past, present and future are unfolding in a powerful and important way on a daily basis.?Are we listening? Paying attention? Anticipating? The proverbial Invisible Hand is painting a technicolor picture. We should slow down and pay attention. That’s all.?