Investor or Speculator or Gambler?
Are you an investor, or a speculator, or a gambler?
Call me old fashioned, but I still draw a distinction here. Some promoters will no doubt be upset that I’m shining light on this subject, but when considering buying a real estate or natural resources deal (well, any business, for that matter), understanding the difference, to me, is a pretty key concept. And don’t get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with speculation if you know, eyes open, that is what you are doing, but the creep in language that occurs I think has confused these concepts over time, and all too often we actually have a gamble, dressed up in language of an investment, and that can lead us to unfortunate consequences, if we aren’t lucky (but luck isn’t the whole story – see my article the CORE Principle of Success regarding how “luck” plays into the mix).
Definitions
Before looking at how we apply this distinction in a deal making context, lets define the difference in these concepts, as I use them.
Investment: The application of capital to create a structure that creates more value from the operation or use of the structure created. In this context, “structure” can be an assembly of computer code as much as an apartment building, or it may be a song (or other intellectual property) or a business. For it to be a positive investment it needs to generate more value out than went in, but for the purposes of this distinction, an investment is an application of capital to produce new value.
Speculation: In this context, speculation is the application of capital to acquire an ownership interest in a thing (a building, a stock, bitcoin, an oil and gas lease, whatever) with the objective of profit from the appreciation in price that another buyer would pay for the ownership interest. This is price appreciation over time, for ownership sake, rather than value based upon the stream of cash flows, or value in use, or new value created. This is sort of like the different uses of “Value” that Adam Smith taught us, there is value in use (an investment) and value in exchange (what I can trade its ownership for). With speculation, we have indications that the value will continue to increase over time, but we are not in full control of that – there are wider market forces at work, and a good deal of effort is put into timing the entry and exit from ownership positions to maximize profit. So, we are not without some measure of control in our speculation, but when markets for ownership turn, those without a chair when the music stops are caught short. Most “investments” now days seem to be some form of speculation.
(I note that many real estate deals have a component of both, and that is where premiums over cash flow are seen – though it usually is disguised as below market rates of return. The investor accepts the lower return, betting that the asset will appreciate over time to make up the difference, and if that is a blind assumption and not fully evaluated, can lead to nasty surprises.)
Gambling: Gambling has even less control over future value, and we are in an environment where random chance plays a much larger role, or there are such complex and competitive forces at play that it is virtually impossible to reliably predict outcomes. But even when we know that the odds are stacked in favor of the house, some people like to gamble. There are other values being served here, whether feeding the competitive mechanisms of our primal survival brain, or the social value of competition, or the adrenaline and excitement of a bet while it is in play, or just pure entertainment, there are a lot of other reasons for why we gamble, which justify why we do it. All too often, though, a ‘gamble’ is dressed up in clothing of an ‘investment’, and all too often the House (be it the promoter or investment banker or broker) is happy to make money on the transaction regardless of how the individual players make out.
But not all gambles are created equal – chance can even out in the long run, and application of knowledge and skill can navigate that arena in some places better than others. Craps would appear to be a game of total chance at best, whereas blackjack and poker have some degree of control for the skillful player. In horse racing, we have the adage ‘bet the jockey, not the horse’, which in a highly competitive environment is relying upon the experience of the operator and his or her own competitive desire to win, and the better the jockey the better the experience, and the more likely they are to get the best horses to ride as well. This is actually a common business investment strategy as well when we look at the track record of business operators and their experience. There is also the potential where the vagaries of chance are equalized and the application of skill is systematized that a gamble can be turned into an investment, but that generally requires a system in place to turn the tables on chance and other competitive forces.
We have all made investments that were actually speculation. Have you ever taken a gamble and called it an investment? Not all investments are risk free and that risk factor is usually compensated by a higher rate of return. That does not necessarily turn an investment into a gamble, but if you look at it, there will be that spot where you think “hmmmm, for this level of risk, I would need to get X% return for that to balance out” – at some point the level of return needed to get that sense of balance in our gut makes it a gamble.
So, are you an investor, a speculator, or a gambler? In the current economic and financial environment, with so many signs pointing to recession on the horizon, or worse, like the tables turning at the casino, or a sports team going through a slump, it may be time to shift away from speculation and gambling and into more investments.
Application
Lets look at these concepts in the terms of real estate and natural resources (the “other” real estate) deals. Since land is unique, and they are never making any more of it, there is an established base line over time, and we can look at property prices in a given area over time, so there is less gambling involved, unless we strike out on something new, a new use that is not yet proven and we don’t know if it will work or not.
Lets say a promoter wants to sell us a piece of ground for a marijuana grow in a state that has not yet legalized marijuana for sale or growing. There are a LOT of things that have to happen right for this deal to work. It could come good down the road, but this is so far out it may be considered a gamble rather than speculation. Speculation might be investing in the same plot in a state where it is licensed, and hoping that federal legislation is changed to open up the entire market and thus increase the value of your land 10x.
In natural resources, the gambler takes the form of the wildcatter – someone going into a new, unproven province on a theory they hope is right, but no way to be sure until you actually drill it and prove it. It can be wildly profitable, but highly risky as well.
Speculators, on the other hand, know that there is some market force in play that should increase the value of the land position that they are acquiring. Are they buying property across the street from the new mega-sports complex that has just been announced (or inside the boundaries of the proposed complex in hopes of a bigger buyout)? In the oil and gas context, people leasing up mineral rights for production and selling those leases to operators are also speculating in the value of their lease positions. That is not to say that they are not adding value in the land acquisition and accumulation process – amassing a critical mass of properties has its own value, but that value can only be realized, generally, in a rising market when there are sufficient downstream buyers. When caught in the right part of the market cycle, this speculative activity can be extremely rewarding, and in the wrong part of the market cycle it can be disastrous. Assembling land packages for home developers north of Dallas is great when the home building market is going strong, but when homes are overbuilt for the market, such speculation can be a hard business. Likewise, assembling leasehold acreage in hot oil and gas plays can be wildly lucrative, but those windows are usually only open during the front end of an oil boom, and once it turns and you have no one to sell those leases to, you get caught short with an unmarketable and perishable product.
There are plenty of true investments to be made though. An established and stabilized project with a documented stream of cash flows, whether real estate or natural resources, is an easy investment to analyze and take down. Only one step removed is the experienced developer with a property (or mineral resource) in the right place that needs development, or perhaps even better, redevelopment. If the resource is there (the potential future cash flows), then it is only a function of planning (the architect), engineering, regulatory clearance, building, and lease-up (or marketing of product). Not much left to chance or speculation at that point.
As an example, an apartment rehab project is like putting together a waterflood in oil and gas, or redeveloping a past producing gold mine – the resource is known, the regulatory and environmental footprint is known, and the structure of the improvements has an established footprint and observable utility. The resource is there, it just needs a bit of reinvestment and re-invigoration and it will produce a predictable cash flow for another 30+ years.
Now lets look at the distinction in the terms of business. The cannabis business is all the rage right now, and regulations and legalization are unfolding at a rapid pace. There are plenty of folks who are taking a gamble that their business model will work, and there is ample energy in the market (i.e. enough investors looking to get into the space and deploy capital) to show that the market timing is also ripe for speculation. But there are various different ways this market movement can be played (just like natural resources and real estate). You can be looking for a unicorn company that will be the last CBD giant standing when the dust settles and be looking for that wildly successful IPO, or you can be investing in a vertically integrated operation from grow to unique market product with multiple potential profit centers (including hemp fiber, hemp seed for food, etc etc), or you can invest in the outfit that is supplying land, buildings, and equipment to those seeking to establish grow operations (like selling picks and shovels to the miners). In any market niche there is a natural energy (whether growing or contracting) and different businesses can tap that energy with different levels of predictability and risk. Whether a cannabis business, real estate, or natural resources, there are gambles, there are speculations, and there are investments to be had.
Life Cycle and Timing
If you look at an apartment complex, or an oil field, there are definite states to its life cycle, and that life cycle can be extended over time with periodic re-investments to extend the economic life of the property. Much the same can be said for businesses in general, and there are good analogies putting businesses in the context of a living organism, experiencing its life events over time. All of these exist in the context of the larger economy and financial markets, the financial weather or seasons if you will.
In my mind, properly structured investments work no matter the weather or the season (as long as one accepts that there are seasons and there are periods of growth and dormancy). Speculation, on the other hand, generally seems to work best only in the spring, when new growth energy is present, and the prospect of a long growing season remains for the offtake buyer. (How many projects or businesses have you seen started in the late part of the cycle near the peak of the markt, unable to reach equilibrium before the cycle turned and caught them short?)
Gambling seems most susceptible to the chance of the weather, and as we know, a rising tide raises all boats, many gambles are made good by luck of the weather (and we just don’t hear about the picnics or camping trips that got rained out).
Economic Winter
In my opinion, we are approaching an economic winter, and it is time to be setting aside stores for the winter. That’s not to say that all businesses will suffer – firewood, Christmas trees, and booze sell well in the winter, as do coats and fuel oil – selling swimsuits this time of year is not as lucrative. The financial markets are ripe for correction, and real estate doesn’t do as well in a contracting market either. Oil and gas runs in cyclical booms, and it has had its day. While existing production will continue to tick along and there are plenty of great cash flow investments to be made, the speculative market is dead. For asset buyers looking to store long term wealth and value, reserves are a great deal now as the speculative froth is off the market, and can often be purchased for existing cash flows and future redevelopment upside is currently very cheap, if not free. Coming into an economic winter, real estate deals in general should be questioned. As we saw in 2008, when housing foreclosures swept the market, people didn’t move in to apartments, they moved in with each other, or with mom and dad. The high-end luxury end of the market has been hurting for some time already, and that trend can be expected to continue. Despite all the hoopla about rare earth elements, and battery metals, most commodities, in general, can be expected to be analogous to real estate, and suffer along with the overall economic contraction. In a contracting economic environment, the opportunity for rising tide value to support the market is non-existent, and we have the potential to be caught without a chair when the music stops in a contracting market.
Precious metals, and particularly gold and silver, are the exception to this overall trend. They are like the firewood or fuel oil to get us through the economic winter, and the harder the winter the more valued they are. In that, they are the perfect hedge for the rest of the portfolio, and as we head into the economic winter the rising tide for precious metals will raise all boats (public and private alike), it will be an environment where intelligent speculation can pay wild dividends, and even some gamblers will make out great. While there are plenty of opportunities to speculate on stock price of public companies (or even gamble, as in the case of the junior miner looking for the next big find to flip to the major producers), there are also plenty of proper cash flowing investments to be made, if you know where to look for them. If they cash flow and make sense as an investment, then the speculative appreciation in value with the rising tide of the market is just bonus upside, eh?
We Can Help
If you are an Investor, and you are looking for natural resource deals to not only store value for the long term, but also provide cash flow and keep your capital generating new value for you, then we can help. For help as a consultant advisor, or outsourced due diligence department, we can assemble teams to handle any assignment. If you would like to receive a stream of vetted natural resource investments, private message or email me to join our mailing list.
To your Success!
Rand Marsh