Investment Migration Predictions for 2025: A Deep Dive into Known Knowns and Unknowns

As the investment migration industry approaches 2025, David Lesperance, a leading expert in the field, offers his predictions for the coming year. Drawing from the “Rumsfeld Matrix,” popularized by Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Lesperance examines the “known knowns” and “known unknowns” shaping the landscape of investment migration in 2025. His insights, featured in IMI Daily, provide a comprehensive look at what lies ahead.

What Are 2025’s Known Knowns?

The United States

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has created ripples across the investment migration market. Lesperance highlights a noticeable uptick in Americans preparing contingency plans, including:

• Lineage-based citizenship applications: Particularly for Americans with mixed-documented families or undocumented aliens.
• Canadian immigration applications: Leveraging trade agreements for professionals and businesspeople.
• Residency permits and digital nomad visas: Appealing to retirees and HNWIs seeking immediate relocation.
• Golden Visas and Citizenship by Investment (CBI): Providing an option for those not ready to leave but wanting a safety net.

“Americans are preparing for uncertainty,” says Lesperance. Additionally, he points to the potential for new tariffs, inflation, and mass deportations. Wealthy individuals are crafting “fire escape plans” as a hedge against unpredictable policies.

The United Kingdom

On October 30, 2024, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the end of the Non-Dom regime in April 2025. Therefore, this decision is causing seismic shifts among the ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) community. Moreover, “The UK is losing its highest-value tax contributors,” Lesperance explains. With the abolition of the Remittance Tax Regime and new rules subjecting UK residents to worldwide income and capital gains taxation, a mass exodus of non-doms is underway. Key consequences include:

• Departure of UHNW non-doms: Individuals like Akshata Murty, who contributed GBP 4.4m in taxes in her final year under the regime, are relocating.
• Potential Exit Tax implementation: To address future tax revenue shortfalls, the UK may impose capital gains taxes on unrealized gains for those leaving its tax net.

“Jumping from one tax pot to another fire is a real risk,” warns Lesperance, urging HNWIs to carefully consider jurisdictions with favorable tax burdens and tax treaties with the UK.

China

Chinese investors remain steady participants in Residency and Citizenship by Investment (RCBI) programs. However, Lesperance notes an acceleration in HNW Chinese relocating due to Beijing’s stricter taxation of overseas investments and concerns about the safety of prominent figures falling out of favor with the government.

Middle East

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving increased interest in RCBI programs. Particularly, individuals from Israel, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and Palestine. This demand is not limited to those in the region but extends to expatriates in countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

What Are 2025’s Known Unknowns?

While some trends are clear, others depend on unfolding geopolitical and economic developments. Among the “known unknowns” are:

• South Africa: Will proposed Wealth Tax legislation push HNWIs to explore alternative residency options?
• Taiwan: Will heightened tensions with China lead Taiwanese HNWIs to secure second citizenships?
• New Zealand: Can upcoming changes to its Investor Visa make it a more competitive destination?
• Vanuatu: How will it respond to competition from Nauru? Will it replace its Honorary Citizenship status with ordinary citizenship and adjust pricing?
• Mexico: Could new tax policies under its president and shifts in U.S. trade policy drive wealthy Mexicans to seek alternative residency?
• Middle East geopolitics: How will ongoing conflicts in Syria, Gaza, and Israel impact regional migration patterns?
• Saudi Arabia: Will Mohammed bin Salman’s potential ascension to kingship attract new residents, or will concerns about being on the wrong side of his policies drive nationals to hedge their bets?

Continued Growth in Investment Migration

Despite uncertainties, Lesperance predicts that the investment migration market will continue its unprecedented growth into 2025. “The remarkable demand we witnessed in 2024 will only intensify,” he states.

Moreover, with shifting tax policies, geopolitical upheavals, and a growing appetite for mobility among the world’s wealthy, the investment migration industry stands poised for another transformative year.