Investing Reimagined: My Campaign for Financial Empowerment

I spend $1,200 daily on advertising as part of the Campaign for a Million - to teach a million people how to invest better and add an extra million to their pensions over their lifetimes. (Will post the invoices in upcoming post - so follow to see the eye watering amounts now for 4 months). (Campaignforamillion.com)

Emails like the one here show the massive need. Poor pension performance leads to poor retirement, poor mental health, poor work productivity, poor relationships. My ambition is to have an asset management company without assets (like Uber without cars or AirbNB without properties) it shows people how to do it themselves by giving transparent data and humans to show them.

St James's Place has 900,000 clients and is a FTSE 100 company. So replacing them would be a start. And Ravi Shah yours can do the accounts for the first FTSE 100 client! Paresh Kiri - co-pilot.

Just into my 30s, in the early 2000s, I bought my second ever home, for just shy of a million pounds on Hamilton Terrace, St John's Wood, in London. Never did I think it would rise above a million.?

Similarly, never did I think back then I would see in two decades from then multi-trillion dollar companies in my portfolio.?

Which companies are next in the next 12-24 months? (Table below in ￡).?

Not Berkshire unless their largest holding Apple's AI bets pay off very soon.?

Broadcom - chips - could well do it

Tesla - you just never know with them - they might invent time travel

Visa will need to jump onto some crypto craze to do it, else no

Advanced Micro, Qualcomm, Applied Materials - could do an nVidia

Oracle/Salesforce.com - they'll need to do 'a Microsoft' with AI

Adobe, Cisco, Intel, IBM and Accenture are AI plays but slow and stodgy to get to a trillion in that timeframe

All investing is risky. Disclosure of interest: I own some of the stocks in the image, and could exit at any time without notice.

Introducing the inaugural Great Investments Programme Dinner: Wealth and Wisdom?

Last evening, I had the privilege of hosting an exclusive dinner for the esteemed members of our Great Investments Program and a handpicked selection of VIP guests.?

Our program, designed for those who are not just seeking to enhance their portfolios but also to make a significant impact on their financial futures, has always been about more than just numbers. Yes everyone want to improve their pension portfolios. That’s where I come in. But it’s more than that.?

The dinner was a testament to the vibrant ecosystem we've cultivated, where like-minded investors come together to share insights, strategies, and success stories.?

This unique assembly of individuals, all on a quest for financial excellence, provides an unparalleled opportunity for learning and growth.

Our commitment to providing an exclusive platform for our members to thrive is unwavering.?

We believe that by bringing together individuals who are not only passionate about growing their wealth but also about contributing to a community of informed investors, we can change the landscape of investing. Take it out of the hands of ill informed IFAs, wealth managers with conflicts of interest, and no interest in their clients only lining their own pockets.?

The knowledge shared, the networks built, and the strategies developed within this community are designed to empower each member to navigate the complexities of the financial world with confidence and sophistication.

As we look to the future, we are excited about the possibilities that lie ahead for our members. Our program is more than just a gateway to financial growth; it's a journey towards becoming more astute, more connected, and ultimately more successful investors.?

The benefits of such a community are immeasurable, not just in terms of financial gains but in the collective wisdom and strength that comes from being part of a network of peers who share a common goal.

To our esteemed members and guests, we extend our heartfelt thanks for making this event a resounding success. Big thanks to Paresh Kiri bringing additional hedge fund and floor trading insights.?

Your engagement and enthusiasm are what make our community truly exceptional. Together, we are not just building portfolios; we are building futures.

The next one is at my Inn: The Honourable Society of Lincoln’s Inn, black tie and gourmet dinner.?

Nish Kotecha - discovered he’s doing the floatation and anything short of a billion will be, well, too short! Derek Goodwin thank you - who’s already brought over a billion into the UK through global tech working with Number 10 and founding the Global Entrepreneur Programme. And thank you Param S. MBE for organising the business event in Parliament beforehand and joining us.?

Want to be part of it? www.alpeshpatel.com/shares or speak to Paresh Kiri

Based on the "Global Outlook 2024" document by Macquarie, here are the top 10 points relevant for someone interested in investing in equities in 2024:

Energy Transition Opportunities: The US Inflation Reduction Act has positioned the US as a global leader in clean hydrogen, battery storage, electric vehicles and infrastructure, carbon capture, and circular economy elements like waste-to-energy.?

Infrastructure as a Defensive Play: Infrastructure has a proven attractive risk-return profile and strong defensive characteristics. Deal volumes were weak globally in 2023 but are expected to pick up in 2024, with digital infrastructure continuing to see strong demand, especially in Asia and the US.

Credit Markets: With inflation signs of abating, growth slowing, and central banks pausing, bonds offer value. Credit spreads do not yet reflect recessionary conditions, leading to a preference for bonds at the low-risk end of the spectrum. Strong investor demand for private credit is anticipated in 2024.

Real Estate Opportunities: Disruptions in 2023 have created selective opportunities in 2024, particularly in the living and logistics sectors, supported by long-term demand drivers such as UK housing. Partnering with specialist operators can provide enhanced access to these opportunities.

Valuations and Market Volatility: US and global equity markets saw a better year in 2023 after the 2022 selloff, with the S&P 500 Index notably outperforming key regional indices due to solid earnings growth despite high valuations at the start of the year.

Earnings Resilience and Recession Concerns: Forward earnings have started to recover, but historically, earnings declines during recessions have been larger. If the US does not enter a recession, the equity market rally could broaden supported by strong earnings growth.

Small-caps vs. Large-caps: Small-cap stocks' NTM price-to-earnings ratios are at levels typically seen during a recession, creating a compelling valuation spread and potential for outperformance in the early phase of recovery.

Non-US Equities and Emerging Markets: With many risks in China and emerging markets well-flagged, there might be closer to "peak pessimism," presenting potential opportunities. Valuations in Europe also look attractive on valuation grounds.

Listed Real Assets: Given structural higher levels of inflation, listed infrastructure equities and REITs are of interest, reaching levels viewed as attractive entry points.

Strategic Positioning: Investors are advised to focus on sectors with defensive traits, ability to protect against inflation surges, and relatively high yield, such as infrastructure and certain real estate sectors, while being cautious about credit markets due to current valuations not fully reflecting potential recessionary conditions.

As a young child sitting in the back of the car, I was probably 6, but it’s my earliest memory - my parents and I had just left home (Kellet Lane, Leeds) - and I was kicking the passenger side where my mom was.

My dad stopped the car. Told me to get out and go home. It was dark. I did as I was told. I didn’t realise he was following to make sure I got in safely. My grandmother waiting at home was not pleased with my dad and neither was my mom.

I don’t think from that day I’ve ever raised my voice to my mom. The joke in the extended family is if anyone says anything to my mom then they know I’ll go ballistic.

My dad’s job was to look after my mom. My mom’s to look after me. Today it’s my job to look after both of them.

Like many parents of that era they both worked and didn’t have time to sit and do homework with me. My dad bought me an encyclopedia he could barely afford. That began a lifelong love of learning.

He’d worry I wouldn’t be educated. As both worked hard. My mom was an NHS nurse.

Bottom line. Teach your children the sheer joy of learning. Show them your labours so they know it’s not just luck everything they have. And, well, make sure they know their duty.

Britain has a trade deficit with India, principally due to the amount of oil we import from India.

My notes: (1000% tariff on English willow in Indian cricket bats).?

1. UK-India Trade Relations at a Glance Total trade in goods and service (exports plus imports) between the UK and India was ￡38.1 billion

India was the UK’s 12th largest trading partner – 2.1% of UK trade

14th largest export market (accounting for 1.7% of total UK exports

This means the UK reported a total trade deficit of ￡8.3 billion with India, compared to a trade deficit of ￡4.0 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2022.

UK officials flew back from New Delhi on Thursday night and Friday,?

2. Background and Credential Verification

Background and credential verification of executives of companies the UK authorities required a separate credential verification for executives of companies who are required to work on projects in the UK. Solution: UK access Indian police KYC database

3.???Mutual acceptance of credit history;?

?a.??Banks and financial institutions including credit card issuers do not consider the credit history of India based executives who come to the UK to work on certain projects.?

4.???Allowing Indian Banks to operate as Branch:

As per current UK regulatory guidelines, overseas banks are allowed to operate as a branch structure (vs subsidiary structure) for wholesale business and retail business with local deposit taking up to GBP 500 million on a case-to-case basis.?

5.???Social Security Agreement:?

a.?Indian employees on secondment to the UK also contribute significantly to the UK economy in terms of their spending, but changes to the immigration rules, with the abolition of the Short-Term ICT category of visa and the introduction of the Skills and Immigration Health Surcharge, are proving to be steps towards making the UK less competitive for Indian businesses

b.?but the employers also suffer this double liability making it a hidden cost of trade and investment between our two countries.

c.??which would allow Indian employers and their seconded employees an exemption from National Insurance contributions for a similar period as that given to investors from US and other countries

Total bilateral trade between India and the UK increased to $20.36 billion in 2022-23 from $17.5 billion in 2021-22. (Similar to the EFTA group)

1.?EFTA first Good for India & Swiss

a.??Also this is the right order for India. It puts pressure on others?ABB Ltd.?and elevator maker?Schindler Holding AG, it gives Swiss companies an advantage over competitors from the UK, China and the US who can’t take advantage of such a free-trade deal, the group said.”

b.?India’s trade minister says 1 million jobs will be created

c. India and four European countries signed a free trade pact that will see $100 billion binding invested in the South Asian country over 15 years and a million jobs created. [private sector and manufacturing]

2.?UK Should Ask

a. Inward investment into AI, Space, Quantum, Cyber, Defence in UK – Indian VCs

The Fidelity Outlook for 2024 provides an in-depth analysis of the economic landscape, focusing on equities investment. Here's a summary of the top 10 points for someone interested in investing in 2024 equities:

Diverse Economic Scenarios: The report outlines four potential economic scenarios (cyclical recession, soft landing, balance sheet recession, and no landing) with varied probabilities, highlighting the uncertainties and risks in forecasting the economic outlook for 2024.

Cyclical Recession Likely: The base case scenario, with a 60% probability, suggests a cyclical recession due to the depletion of pandemic-era savings and tightening credit conditions, potentially leading to reduced growth and central banks eventually cutting rates.

Soft Landing Scenario: Assigned a 20% probability, this scenario envisages a gentle economic slowdown without major disruptions, allowing central banks to pivot and cut interest rates to ease pressures on indebted households and companies.

Balance Sheet Recession Risks: With a 10% probability, this scenario predicts a severe downturn due to a failure in policy support, leading to significant cutbacks in corporate and household spending, and aggressive rate cuts by central banks.

No Landing Scenario: Also with a 10% probability, this outlines a situation where economic growth remains resilient, inflation stays above targets, and central banks continue to raise interest rates.

Equities Strategy: The report suggests that in a cyclical recession, investors might focus on high-quality equities away from small caps or discretionary sales sectors, while in a soft landing scenario, there could be opportunities across many asset classes including growth stocks.

Fixed Income and Private Credit: In a cyclical recession, medium-duration inflation-linked bonds are favoured over nominal ones, reflecting expectations for sticky inflation before it falls back to target.

Asian Markets Focus: Despite the global economic uncertainties, the report highlights strong growth momentum in Asian economies, with a particular focus on China's potential pathways and the implications for regional markets.

Sustainability and Transition Finance: The need for robust transition plans and the development of sustainable debt instruments to achieve net zero targets are emphasised, along with the importance of regulatory support for green technologies.

Investment Implications per Scenario: Each economic scenario presents different implications for asset classes, with recommendations ranging from defensive positioning in a balance sheet recession to favouring economically sensitive value stocks in a strong reflation scenario in China.

On the panel as Dealmaker in the Department for Business and Trade, in the Indian High Commission and FICCI event, I am looking for in the Global Entrepreneur Programme scale up companies whose founders would be suitable for the UK Innovator Visa (whether or not they need it).

That means UK company 1. yet to be set up (not sales office) but willing+ able to go global from the UK , 2. high growth already - proven scale up 3. exceptional innovative deep tech and 4. world-class self-starter, self-sufficient founder(s) needing limited high impact direction/help with networks/door opening initially only.?

Companies of the calibre of our alumni builder.ai or Carbon Clean Solutions or instance. Founder(s) expected to spend a lot of time in the UK with their new UK company.?

1. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

India has emerged as a significant hub for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) innovation, with a vast talent pool of engineers and researchers.?

2. Cybersecurity

Indian companies with expertise in cybersecurity solutions, including threat intelligence, network security, and incident response, can address the significant demand in the UK market.?

3. Quantum Computing

Indian companies and research institutions working on quantum computing can find collaborative opportunities in the UK, which is investing heavily in quantum technologies.

4. Defence Equipment and Manufacturing

India's defense sector has made significant strides in manufacturing a wide range of defense equipment, including vehicles, aircraft, naval ships, and unmanned systems.

5. Cyber Defence and Intelligence

Collaboration in this area can help safeguard critical infrastructure and sensitive information, addressing mutual concerns over cyber threats and espionage.

6. Surveillance and Reconnaissance Technologies

Advancements in surveillance and reconnaissance technologies, including satellites, drones, and AI-powered analytics, are vital for national security and defence.?

7. Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology

Indian companies can work with UK entities to develop lightweight, durable materials for use in armour, aerospace, and naval applications, contributing to the next generation of defense technologies.

8. Space Technologies and Satellite Communications

With India's significant achievements in space technology and satellite communication, there is a clear opportunity for collaboration with the UK's growing space sector; including reconnaissance, and secure communication channels.

9. Autonomous Systems and AI in Defense

The application of AI and autonomous systems in defense offers transformative potential. Indian companies at the forefront of AI, robotics, and unmanned vehicles can contribute to the UK's defence strategy.

10. Maritime Security Technologies

Indian companies can offer solutions in maritime surveillance, anti-piracy systems, and naval combat systems, contributing to the security of sea lanes and maritime infrastructure.

My Campaign for a Million is to teach people how to invest better so over their lifetime a million people have a million more in their pensions than they otherwise would. That’s a trillion value add.

https://www.campaignforamillion.com/ explains the benefits of this from improving mental health to improved worker productivity.

My most popular video on TikTok has 7m views. The existing system is so broken. Baroness Sandy Verma will speak to you about this.

Based on the BNY Mellon 2024 Capital Market Assumptions, here are the top 10 points for someone interested in investing in equities in 2024:

Moderately Higher Returns: An improved economic outlook has increased the assumption for ten-year U.S. equity returns to 7.4% from 6.5% previously, driven by technological innovations like AI.

Global Economic Trends: An aging population, higher real interest rates, the productivity benefits of AI, and significant investments in lower carbon policies are identified as key themes influencing the market over the next decade.

AI's Economic Impact: AI is expected to significantly affect global GDP and inflation, with its adoption potentially boosting global GDP by nearly $16 trillion by 2030.

Sustainability Focus: Investments between $100 and $130 trillion are necessary for achieving a net-zero carbon emissions outcome by 2050, highlighting opportunities in renewable energy and the importance of sustainability in investment considerations.

Dividend Yield Expectations: Dividend yields are expected to blend historical median and current market yields, with assumptions of 1.7% in the U.S., 2.7% in developed markets outside the U.S., and 2.2% in emerging markets.

Inflation and Interest Rates: The document suggests moderately higher inflation and interest rates compared to the period following the Global Financial Crisis, affecting both equity and fixed income returns.

Equity Market Projections: U.S. equities are expected to lead in harnessing the productivity-enhancing benefits of AI, while non-U.S. and emerging market equities may face challenges due to higher economic uncertainty and deglobalisation trends.

Fixed Income Outlook: Higher starting yields in fixed income are expected to offer improved returns compared to previous years, with U.S. aggregate bonds projected to return 4.8% over the next ten years.

Emerging Market Volatility: Emerging market equities are expected to face volatility and lower returns, influenced by softening commodity prices and shifting investment towards developed markets due to higher bond yields.

Diversification and Risk Management: The importance of a diversified portfolio is emphasised, reflecting lessons from past market cycles and the need for robust strategic asset allocation in the face of uncertain market conditions.

With one wealth manager in the FTSE 100 tanking as it prepares for more litigation for poor or no advice...

I'd be really interested!

The UK budget will remove non-domiciled tax status for individuals. How about for companies? So for individuals ... If you're 1. Born abroad 2. Earn your money abroad 3. Keep that money abroad. 4. Plan to retire/be buried abroad. 5. Pay tax in that foreign country on that foreign earned money kept aboard. 6. You're a foreign national, that money is subject to tax based on residency and double tax treaties.

Can we do this to Apple, Microsoft, Google on their US earnings this year too if they have any UK residence at all? What do you think? Good for individuals is good for all persons? Let's remove their de facto (I know de jure they don't have it) non-dom status? (Asking for a friend)

The new ￡5k ISA in the budget.

1. Details being worked out

2. It will not mean more money to UK firms unless restricted to IPOs and private companies (we have (S)EIS and this is not that, so assume public companies).

3. Money doesn't go to UK companies when you buy UK company shares. It goes to brokers who get commissions and the shareholder who sold you the stock, who could be anywhere in the world, usually, probably a global fund manager.

4. The FTSE 100 is up 6.9% since 1999. Not annually. In total. Assuming the money follows name recognition stocks (it does according to data), and tax losses are not realiseable in an ISA, well...more on this later.

5. If I was going to pick UK - I'd say FTSE Fledgling. There are some 61 stocks in this index and they range from ￡159m to ￡1m market cap. (Investing is risky!). I will not name names because literally my posting would move their stock price, that's how small they are. (It's how I won a competition on Channel 4's Show Me the Money).

The recent budget announcement has introduced a new financial instrument that could significantly alter the landscape for savers and investors alike: a ￡5,000 ISA allowance.

This move, aimed at encouraging savings and investments, presents a unique opportunity, especially for those looking to bolster their pension funds. However, understanding its implications requires a deep dive into the details and strategic considerations for future planning.

Understanding the New ￡5k ISA

The introduction of a ￡5,000 ISA allowance is a pivotal development, yet its potential impact on individual financial strategies and the broader UK economy hinges on several factors. Firstly, the effectiveness of this initiative in funeling more capital directly into UK firms is debatable.

Unlike specific schemes designed to support startups and private companies, such as the (S)EIS, this ISA does not inherently direct money into UK companies' coffers. Instead, when you buy shares of a UK company, the funds typically go to brokers and the previous shareholder, who could be based anywhere globally.

Policy Changes and Their Implications

The budget also outlines several other policy changes that could influence investment strategies and pension planning: 1. National Insurance Contributions Cut: Reduced rates for employees and the self-employed could increase disposable income, potentially boosting consumer spending and investment in the UK markets.

2. High Income Child Benefit Charge Reform: This adjustment may affect family financial planning and investment strategies.

3. Capital Gains Tax Reduction for Residential Properties: Lower taxes on property disposals could stimulate the real estate market, presenting investment opportunities.

4. New UK ISA Introduction: A new ISA with a ￡5,000 allowance encourages savings and investments, offering tax-efficient investment options.

5. VAT Registration Threshold Adjustments: Changes may impact small businesses and startups, possibly affecting investment in these sectors.

6. Residence-Based Tax Regime Shift for Non-UK Domiciles: This could have implications for international investors and the attractiveness of the UK as an investment destination.

7. Infrastructure and Public Spending: Investments in infrastructure and public services may create opportunities in construction, technology, and related sectors.

8. Environmental and Green Initiatives: Focus on green investments could benefit sectors such as renewable energy, green technology, and sustainable infrastructure.

9.Digital?Economy Investments: Enhanced support for the digital economy may present growth opportunities in tech, cybersecurity, and digital services.

10. Educational and Skill Development Initiatives: Investments in education and skills could long-term benefit sectors reliant on highly skilled workforces, affecting labor markets and productivity.

The Investment Landscape and UK Firms

The assumption that this new ISA could lead to a significant direct investment in UK firms might not hold unless restrictions are applied to focus on IPOs and private companies. The reality of stock investments is that money often flows to global fund managers rather than the companies themselves. This distinction is crucial for understanding the potential economic impact of the new ISA.

The Broader Economic Context

Investments in infrastructure, public spending, green initiatives, the digital economy, and education are all poised to create new opportunities for investors. Understanding these trends is essential for anyone looking to make the most of the new ￡5k ISA, as they could significantly affect market dynamics and investment outcomes.

Conclusion

The introduction of a new ￡5k ISA in the budget opens up a plethora of opportunities and considerations for pension savers and investors. While it presents a potential boost to individual savings strategies, its broader economic impact and effectiveness in supporting UK firms directly remain to be seen.

Investors should carefully consider their options, keeping an eye on market trends, policy changes, and the evolving economic landscape. As always, diversification and strategic planning are key to navigating the complexities of the financial world and securing a prosperous future.

You cannot watch the news and not know how lucky this boy is. You are more likely to win your country's national lottery than be the one in hundreds of millions to be this fortunate. Not because of his parents, or his broader family, or the country he is born in, or the comfort in which he lives. But because of the statistical improbability of all those things coming together simultaneously.

He will be raised to know with privilege comes responsibility. He seems to get it already. Since the time I started writing this, a child will have died somewhere in the world. Child mortality is one one of the world's largest problems. Around 6 million children under 15 die annually. That's the same number as Jews that died in the Holocaust. Every year.?

What’s tragic is how many of these deaths are preventable. Most are caused by malnutrition, birth conditions such as preterm birth, sepsis and trauma, and infectious diseases such as pneumonia, malaria, and HIV/AIDS.

But this was a party. Another day, he will be taught the serious stuff. And will join me and his mom in making a tiny drop in the ocean difference where we can. (Wait till I tell him I don't believe in inheritance!).

Your net worth is determined by your networks they say. I am joining this - my friend is about to become President. (Plus it's a steal for a City organisation at just ￡60!) - and they do great works, in exclusive City locations.

Join (mention that you watched this video in "How did you hear about us?" box): https://unitedwardsclub.org.uk/join-us/

And - book for Dhruv's installation dinner on Friday 22 March 2024: https://unitedwardsclub.org.uk/event/agm-installation-dinner-2/

Despite my broken toe - which did not impact my moderating the session - Wales in India at the Indian High Commission in London with the Wales First Minister.?

Do see the The Einstein Challenge I created on why this is so important https://www.theeinsteinchallenge.com/

1. Space Exploration: Mars Orbiter Mission (Mangalyaan)

India's Mars Orbiter Mission, launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in 2013, made it the first Asian nation to reach Martian orbit and the first in the world to do so on its first attempt. This mission demonstrated India's advanced capabilities in low-cost space exploration.?

2. Digital Innovation: Unified Payments Interface (UPI)

India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) revolutionised the digital payments landscape, facilitating instant real-time payments between two parties. Launched in 2016 by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), UPI has become a world-leading digital payments platform, offering an efficient, user-friendly, and secure method of monetary transactions, significantly contributing to India's move towards a digital economy.

3. Pharmaceuticals: COVID-19 Vaccine Development

India played a crucial role in the global battle against the COVID-19 pandemic by developing and mass-producing vaccines. Covaxin, developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), is an indigenously developed COVID-19 vaccine, highlighting India's capabilities in vaccine research and pharmaceutical manufacturing.

4. Renewable Energy: Solar Power Expansion

India has made significant strides in renewable energy, particularly in solar power. The country aims to achieve 100 GW of solar capacity as part of its ambitious target of 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030. The establishment of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) by India, in collaboration with France, underscores its commitment to renewable energy and its leadership role in global sustainability efforts.

5. Information Technology: IT Services and Outsourcing

India remains a global leader in information technology and outsourcing, with its IT industry contributing significantly to the global market. Indian IT firms like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro are recognised worldwide for their software development, IT services, and consulting, driving innovation and efficiency across various sectors.

6. Startup Ecosystem: Unicorns and Innovation

India's startup ecosystem has seen explosive growth, with numerous startups achieving 'unicorn' status (valued at over $1 billion).?

7. Telecommunications: World's Second-Largest Internet User Base

India has rapidly expanded its telecommunications infrastructure, becoming the world's second-largest internet user base. This achievement has not only democratised internet access but has also spurred a digital transformation across the economy, enabling growth in digital services, e-commerce, and digital education.

Based on the Asset Management Outlook 2024 by Goldman Sachs, here are the top 10 points summarised for someone solely interested in investing in 2024 equities:

Macroeconomic Environment: Interest rates in developed markets are expected to stay higher for longer, with growth paths and inflation patterns diverging across the global economy. Investors should focus on sectors and companies that can navigate higher capital costs and slower growth.

Geopolitical Risks: An election super cycle in 2024 against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical risk could introduce volatility. Companies benefiting from reshoring of critical supply chains and increased investment in national security may offer compelling investment opportunities.

Disruptive Technology: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming industries such as semiconductors, cybersecurity, and healthcare. Skill in identifying tomorrow's winners is crucial, and investors may benefit from the recovery in the initial public offering (IPO) market for disruptive companies.

Sustainability: Sustainable investing is becoming more complex and competitive. Opportunities exist in both public and private capital markets, from pure-play enablers of a sustainable world to transition leaders in high-carbon industries.

Portfolio Construction: Investors should adopt active investment strategies, focusing on diversification and risk management to navigate the uncertainties of 2024. Both traditional and alternative investments should be considered for enhancing diversification and performance potential.

Interest Rates and Inflation: With interest rates expected to remain high, investors should assess the impact on different sectors and companies. An up-in-quality approach in fixed income and a strategic approach to private market exposure could be beneficial.

Technology and Innovation: Emphasise investment in sectors poised for transformation by AI and other disruptive technologies. Areas like semiconductors, cybersecurity, and digital healthcare are expected to see significant growth.

Sustainable Investment Opportunities: Focus on companies and projects that contribute to environmental sustainability and inclusive growth. Real-world impact and progress toward decarbonisation should be key considerations.

Active Management and Stock Selection: Given the expected market volatility and dispersion, active management and selective stock picking will be crucial. High-quality firms, strong dividend payers, and regional diversification should drive portfolio decisions.

Diversification Across Asset Classes: The importance of diversification across both public and private markets is emphasised, with a call to manage portfolios in an integrated manner to navigate the complexities of the 2024 investment landscape effectively.

The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko

Live Below Your Means: Wealth is accumulated by spending less than you earn.

Avoid Debt: Stay away from unnecessary debt and pay off debts

Financial Discipline: Consistently save and invest a portion of your income.

Most popular AI tools

ChatGPT: No introduction needed.?

QuillBot: It is a tool that helps with writing by providing paraphrasing services to help users rephrase or enhance their content for clarity, variety, or other stylistic purposes.

Midjourney: Make images. You've heard of this one probably.?

Hugging Face: Known for its transformer models, Hugging Face provides a host of machine learning models, primarily focused on natural language processing tasks, like sentiment analysis. For full on AI machine learning geeks. Not for you. Skip it.?

Character.ai: Interact with specialist AI eg pyschiatrists! Or create your own. The world is a lonely place clearly.?

Civitai: Make pictures.?

Janitor AI: Weird. I am the wrong generation.?

CapCut: Video editing, possibly providing AI-powered features for enhancing video content. Owned by Byte Dance - behind TikTok.?

NovelAI: This tool possibly focuses on generating or assisting in the creation of written narratives, using AI to help users craft stories or other long-form content.

Bard now Gemini, previously Shakespeare: Google's AI search thingy, because they cannot get away from their search engine roots and think everything is a search engine or should be.

I dreamt I was Jack Nicholson's character in a Few Good Men last night. Here's the iconic speech re-imagined. [Friday night fun for finance freaks (my grandad was in the British Army)]

"You wake up every morning to a world that, beneath its calm surface, is swirling with financial currents and undercurrents, markets that move with a volatility that can be as unpredictable as the weather.

You live in this world, but you want more than just to navigate it; you want to thrive, to ensure that your hard-earned money grows, that your future is secure.?

You want peace of mind, knowing that while you sleep, there's someone on that wall, someone keeping a vigilant eye on those unpredictable markets, ensuring that your investments are not just safe but are poised for growth.

You want the truth? You might think you want the truth, but here's the truth: The world of finance and investment is a battlefield. It's not for the faint-hearted.?

It's a realm where fortunes can be made or lost in the blink of an eye, where the difference between success and failure often hinges on having the right information at the right time and making the right decision based on that information

That's where I come in. I stand on that wall for you. Not just to protect, but to proactively seek opportunities for growth, to navigate the complexities of global markets, to sift through the noise and distill what matters.

My years of experience, my understanding of economics and politics, my ability to anticipate market movements—these are the weapons I wield in this constant vigil.?

I do this, so you don't have to stay awake at night, fretting about your investments. I do this because it's not just my job; it's my calling.

You want to question the methods??

My approach? In the world of investment, like in any domain that requires vigilance and protective oversight, there are decisions that need to be made. Decisions that are not always easy or straightforward.?

Decisions that, to the untrained eye, might seem counterintuitive or even risky. But these decisions are informed by a deep understanding of market dynamics, a nuanced grasp of geopolitical developments, and an unwavering commitment to the interests of my clients.

So, yes, you sleep easy at night because men like me are watching the markets. You thrive because we pore over the data, engage with the theories, challenge the status quo, and always, always keep your best interests at heart. This is not just about investments; it's about trust, about knowing that someone is tirelessly working to ensure your financial well-being.

Remember, in the realm of financial markets, as in many aspects of life, the margin for error is slim. But know this: On my watch, you can rest assured that every possible step is being taken to secure and grow your investments.

Because at the end of the day, your peace of mind is the true measure of my success.

Based on the "AllianzGI Rates Outlook 2024" document, here are the top 10 points summarised for someone interested in investing in equities in 2024:

Expectation of a US Recession: Contrary to a benign consensus, there's an expectation of a recession in the US, with leading indicators pointing towards a downturn between the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024.

Higher Interest Rates for Longer: Markets might be underestimating the extent to which central banks will have to maintain high interest rates, challenging the expectation of significant rate cuts starting mid-2024.

Inflation Remains Stubborn: Despite a decline from peak levels, inflation remains significantly above central banks' 2% targets, driven by various factors including deglobalization, decarbonisation, and demographic changes affecting the labor market.

Opportunity in Fixed Income and Quality Equities: Conditions are aligning for fixed income to become a compelling investment, with opportunities also present in equities focusing on quality names and themes.

Active Investment Approach: A critical need for an active approach in investment selection and management, as not all assets will perform equally in a landscape where money has a cost again.

Divergence Across Global Markets: Equity markets in 2024 are expected to be shaped by divergent growth prospects and monetary policies across the US, European Union, and China, offering conditions favourable for active stock picking.

Technology and New Economy Opportunities: The deployment of technologies like AI across sectors, and China's new economy, present investment opportunities, especially in areas like cybersecurity and health technology.

Quality Counts: The era of "zombie companies" may end as money has a cost again, highlighting the importance of investing in companies with strong fundamentals across various sectors.

Navigating Geopolitical and Structural Changes: The interplay of geopolitics, cyclical and structural trends, including technology and climate transition, will be crucial. Investors should focus on diversification and efficient portfolio construction.

Focus on Resilience and Growth: In constructing equity portfolios, consider a base of multi-factor, low-volatility strategies, and layer with quality value, growth, and income stocks. Explore growth areas like AI, climate transition, and cybersecurity at the top of the investment pyramid.

Alpesh Patel OBE

www.campaignforamillion.com

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