INTUITION? FLIP A COIN INSTEAD...

Intuition is one of those terms that can be heard pretty often and regularly. How many times have you heard that someone has an intuition for economic decisions? It is often used interchangeably with such terms as "a nose" or "a sense" for something. Even more often, we tend to trust our intuition when judging people. Also in recruitment, during processes with far-reaching effects. Relying on a feeling in the stomach and some mythical chemistry during a conversation is simply a classic. A classic being taken seriously, even as an argument, although it is impossible to argue with it in any way. And if you can't, it's closer to magical thinking.

Let's define the concept. This should facilitate reflection and possible discussion. According to the Cambridge Dictionary Intuition is “an ability to understand or know something immediately based on your feelings rather than facts”. Longman’s Dictionary of Contemporary English says: “the power of understanding or knowing something without reasoning or learned skill”.

In the light of the above definitions, it is also important to say unequivocally what intuition is not, although many of us wrongly broaden its understanding. It is not the opening of the heavens and communication with the cosmos telling us what we did not know. Intuition does not provide us with new premises. It is based on the ones that we have already had in our memory. It combines these premises and suggests a solution, offers a hypothesis. If we put a chessboard in front of someone who has never played chess before, then no intuition will tell them what the next move should be. Prior practice or experience is necessary.

The described thought process and hypothesis happen outside our conscious process of thinking. This is where the potential trap is. We have no idea what elements of our experience and emotions this process has taken into account when offering a solution. Was it only the important and substantive ones, or maybe they were combined with the superficial and meaningless.

Example:

One of the classical situations, where we constantly hear about intuition (or even use it ourselves), is a recruitment process. I have a feel for people, you know; It takes me just five minutes to talk to a man and I already know everything; We had good chemistry during the conversation, such an interesting candidate; My gut feeling tells me that...

If we leave it to intuition, we do not know why we like the candidate or not. Whether and to what extent the working hypothesis (suitable/unsuitable) was affected by elements completely irrelevant to the main goal, that is the success of this person in the position. Elements such as a shared hobby, being born in the same city, graduation from the same university, mutual friends, friendly smile, physical attractiveness, hair colour or lack thereof, gender, height, nationality, skin complexion, clothing, etc. Our mind has simply compared it to our statistical experiences with other people and our more or less justified and equally conscious attitudes and judged "Similar!". This does have a certain statistical value. It’s good for population surveys. But we don’t recruit statistics or population. We recruit a single man.

So how about intuition than, is it good or bad? It’s neither unequivocally good nor unequivocally bad. It depends on what we use it for. It works especially well for many smaller daily decisions: those repetitive situations whose effects are not going to affect us for years. In short, a lighter calibre - when the risk and consequences (!) of making a mistake are limited, acceptable, and subject to quick correction or when we only have seconds to make a decision. Although we don't have any choice then, whether we want it or not, we have to rely on the first impression.

When making decisions that affect us for years and are difficult to reverse (i.e. they require a lot of time, effort, cost and the process itself brings loss, including emotional loss), relying on intuition is like playing with fire. It sometimes works and our belief in the power of intuition is reinforced. But there are more chances we will fail. It's just that in the event of failure, we will either rationalize it by “blaming” external factors (that is, we have learned nothing), or we will disappear in non-existence, contributing to a pile of bones at the top of which there are the lucky few who have succeeded. And other people looking up to those at the top are more likely to believe in the power of their intuition, without taking lessons from much more frequent cases when the same intuition "has failed". Alas, it is not the intuition that failed, but the decision-making process. Mathematics comes very helpfully here. It is simple enough to refer to the basics of probability theory, which I’velaid out in the article Ethics in business - probability theory LINK.

What's more, indicating your intuition as a decision-making factor excludes any dialogue and sharing meaningful arguments. One person says the intuition tells them this and that. The other person's intuition whispers something else. So they’ve exchanged opinions and... that’s the end of the conversation, end of story. Well, what's the point talking if they’ve shared something "based on feelings / without reasoning”? Who then, makes the decision? The more superior one, which means the one who he has more formal power.

It is worth to take a look at our behaviour. In the case of our decisions, we are quite willing to trust our intuition. But what do we expect from the people we pay for advice? We hire an expert whose knowledge and experience are greater than ours. Thus, their possible intuition has statistically much better grounds than ours. And what our reaction will be when an expert says: "My intuition tells me that you should invest your savings here and here / that you should hire this director / that you should buy this apartment and you will be happy with it, you’ll see!"? We’ll rather tell him that we’ve hired an expert for factual and documented advice, not a fortune teller... Although, I’ll repeat that, the expert's intuition is statistically better grounded than ours. A classic case when cognitive errors are easier to spot in others and much more difficult in ourselves.

The importance of considerations on intuition in the decision-making process is also supported by quite vast literature. On the one hand, there is an abundance of weekend book guides and bestsellers of various enthusiasts. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcolm Gladwell is one of the stupidest books I've ever read. A sign of the times - a reporter and a columnist who writes such a superficial thing has been classified by Time among the hundred most influential... thinkers. O tempora, O mores! If you squeeze this book harder and harder, you'll have one message left in the end - don't think, trust your hunch!!! Always; which makes it even worse. Charming, because it releases from what sometimes hurts so much, that is, from thinking. Damn it, why think?Just do the first thing that comes to your mind and it will be okay. No wonder the book has become a best-seller! It’s no surprise because the "message" of it is ideal for framing and posting on the Facebook wall. Facebook is full of naive calls not to think with your head but only with your heart. Let me just remind you - a heart is a muscle; it beats faster or slower not by itself, but by orders sent by the nervous system.

In contrast, there is a book that will last much longer than the seasonal meteor Blink, although it has probably sold fewer copies. I am referringtoThinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, a scientist studying the meanders of our thinking, situation assessment, and decision making. And intuition too. I highly recommend this book to everyone. It is based on proven and repeated experiments, without the element of speculation.

What to do about it?

Since we know how intuition can deceive us (and it does it too often for us to believe in our divinity and visions), how can we deal with it? Below are at least two complementary strategies to consider:

- the assessment of the relevance of the decision - according to the previously described scheme; if we need to make a highly significant, long-term decision, the effects of which will have much impact and their reversal would require a lot of strength, resources and time, then do not rely on the blink of intuition. It may work once or twice, but at a third go you will believe in your divinity and you’ll drown everything. Don’t we know all too many cases like that? It is also worth to assess the risk of the decision. There are ways to do it, both for the assessment of tangible and intangible assets. But, if the decision is of daily importance, reversible, without jeopardizing the basics of our business or quality of our life, you can rely on "fast thinking", according to the Kahneman nomenclature. After all, buying cheese doesn’t need to be subject to multi-criteria optimization...

- the moment you start thinking/saying "My intuition tells me that..." stop. This is a warning sign to examine this intuition. It can be done. Analyse and name specific parameters that could have influenced the hypothesis. What past situations is the current one similar to? Is it substantive similarity or is it just a superficial resemblance of time, place, and participants? What emotions are ruling me now? What is their source? If I heard the same data from other people, would I judge it the same way? What is the fact and what is just a premise? And so on. This is not quantum physics. It requires self-reflection and basic knowledge of data analysis and decision-making, including the knowledge of at least a dozen of the most common cognitive errors and techniques to deal with them. You can even find them on Wikipedia.

Some thoughts on the matter

Intuition in science - the courage to think, build hypotheses based on limited data, from detail to the general; inductive thinking is one of the key elements of the scientific process. This also means that there are other, equally important elements. Together they make for science. Elements without which the hypothesis is a speculative game equal to horoscopes. We tend to forget about it. This distinguishes science from pseudo-science, which is present everywhere now. The key to these other elements of the scientific thinking process is subjecting each hypothesis to critical analysis and the process of verification by experimentation, which is governed by very strict rules.

Was Columbus's decision to cruise west based on intuition? On the contrary - it was based on very strong premises, including Earth's sphericity. Because intuition suggests something completely different, that is…the Earth is flat.

Financial advisors, brokers - if you ever hear that a consultant has succeeded because of their intuition, run away! Far too many times already it has turned out that statistically and in the long run it is better to flip a coin or... ask apes for advice (such experiments have been done). Kahneman has described it in his book; brutal fragments...

You have to be born with this - another manifestation of magical thinking or mystical interpretation, like in the case of charisma or leadership. We are born with intelligence, it is a fact (at least now it results from research), but habits and rules of its use are learned. So… let’s learn. 

PS the picture above - The Witcher 3, CD Projekt Red