Introducing the TechnologIST, a monthly newsletter
Institute for Security and Technology (IST)
Uniting technology and policy leaders to create actionable solutions to emerging security challenges
Welcome to the TechnologIST, IST's new monthly newsletter highlighting major issues at the intersection of technology and security. I'm Sophia Mauro , the Deputy Director of Strategic Communications at IST, and I'll be introducing you to IST experts like Sylvia Mishra and Silas Cutler, exploring the latest news in cyber and defense, and previewing our upcoming event with Dr. Michael Horowitz on February 22.
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In 2023, the threat of nuclear war still looms large. According to an Atlantic article published last month, “the greatest nuclear threat we face is a Russian victory in Ukraine.” As the Russo-Ukrainian war drags on, the chance of nuclear war goes up: it becomes more likely that Russia will employ its nuclear capabilities, that an errant missile hits a base holding nuclear warheads, or that empty threats and propaganda prompt a nuclear response.
Under one of our three action pillars, Innovation and Catastrophic Risk, IST is working toward nuclear risk reduction. IST Senior Policy Advisor Rear Admiral John Gower defines risk reduction as, “any action, statement, or agreement, whether unilateral, bilateral, multilateral or omnilateral, which reduces the risk of use of a nuclear weapon.”
Sylvia on Nuclear Risk Reduction
In her recent paper for IST, Sylvia Mishra asserts that crisis communication systems provide one viable path toward nuclear risk reduction. I spoke to Sylvia to get her thoughts on how to reduce nuclear risk:
Is there an international consensus around the value of risk reduction?
“Yes, and I think it's growing. Nuclear weapons states seem to agree on the value of risk reduction. Just look at the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference’s final document to the P5 Process, P3 engagements, and the Stockholm Initiative paper. But we have yet to see concrete progress. Meanwhile, many non-nuclear weapons states worry about the lack of progress on nuclear disarmament. They say that nuclear risk reduction is not a viable nor sustainable substitute for disarmament.”
What is IST doing to make tangible progress toward nuclear risk reduction?
“IST is actively involved in this fight! Our CATALINK initiative is presenting a concept for a secure, resilient, global communications system. It consists of a simple, secure, and open source endpoint device called a Puck, which in turn rides on a global mesh network called the ROCCS. CATALINK is based on the premise that complexity is the enemy of security. We always say, ‘by embracing radical simplicity, a system can be created that is easy to use, difficult to hack, and reliable in the face of conflict – even potential nuclear use.’”
And ultimately, how would risk reduction help to mitigate the threat of nuclear war–for example, should Russia choose to escalate things further in Ukraine, how would a risk reduction approach help diffuse tensions?
“I think that the war in Ukraine has brought global attention to the value of crisis communications. Take, for instance, the example raised by Dmitry Stefanovich during our recent webinar on nuclear risk reduction. He mentions that open channels of communication are preventing unintended accidents in the Baltic Sea amidst NATO and Russian military exercises.
Historical examples from the Cold War indicate that when states are intentional about diffusing heightened nuclear dangers, they have been able to effectively engage to de-escalate tensions. Against the backdrop of the recent crisis in Ukraine and ongoing tensions with Russia and China, nuclear risk reduction can mitigate the threat of miscalculations, or an accidental nuclear war. When there are open lines of communication, when leaders can talk with one another, when accidents are not misinterpreted – we are all safer.”
"CATALINK, if implemented, would act as a common denominator or a starting point for tangible nuclear risk reduction efforts. While states may still disagree on sources of nuclear risks, through effective crisis communication states will be able to keep differences from snowballing into a grave crisis.”
Latest Events and Publications
领英推荐
A conversation with Dr. Michael Horowitz, Director of the Emerging Capabilities Policy Office at the Pentagon
Last month, the Pentagon updated its decade-old guidance on “Autonomy in Weapon Systems.” What does the revised policy mean for how the Department of Defense thinks about its remote planes, guns, and bombs, and how is DoD grappling with technological advances from Silicon Valley and around the world? Join us on February 22, 2023 at 11 am PT for a virtual conversation with Dr. Michael Horowitz , moderated by IST's Vice President of Research and Analysis Dr. Alice Friend .
IST announces new support from Omidyar Network to develop a framework for a secure open-source software ecosystem
IST is excited to have the support of Omidyar Network as it works to unpack the security challenges in the open-source software ecosystem.
2022 Developments: Expanding cyber threat landscape, growing tensions around transparency, and increasing focus on cyber capacity building
Read more on the top 3 trends that dominated the digital world and what to expect in 2023 from IST's Zo? Brammer and Silas Cutler.?
IST in the News
What's happening with TikTok's latest lobbying efforts in Washington?
IST Chief Strategy Officer Megan S. joined Stewart Baker on Lawfare's Cyberlaw podcast to discuss the latest news in cyber, including TikTok, the coordinated Hive ransomware network disruption, and the $100 million North Korean hack of a crypto firm.
Don't let a spy balloon derail U.S.-China talks on nuclear weapons?
In a new op-ed for Foreign Policy, IST Senior Advisor Sahil V. Shah writes, "The incident is reminiscent of those that occurred during the Cold War." And much like the Cold War, "nuclear risk reduction measures should be seen as a win-win proposition."
Silas on Cybersecurity
While everyone was distracted by a certain “weather balloon,” a fast moving ransomware operation captured the attention of cybersecurity researchers like ?? Silas Cutler . Here's what Silas had to say about the incident:
At the start of Friday, February 3, posts on social media and messages in private chats were circulating about a software vulnerability that attackers were leveraging to deploy ransomware. By the time the balloon had been grounded, an estimated 1500 servers were being held for ransom and the actor had received roughly $50,000 in payments.
Initial reporting attributed the attack to the Nevada ransomware gang, however, this was later retracted as key differences were identified. While cyber incidents are unfolding, it’s important to remember several axioms:
While the news cycle from the ransomware attack over the weekend has started to fade, the investigation will continue. Like the wreckage of the spy balloon, knowledge captured and preserved from these incidents helps us respond faster and more effectively in the future.
Recommended Reading
Want more tech and security content? Check out some of the ISTeam's favorite pieces from the past month:
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