The Internet of Things hype

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a hype. Of course, things will be connected. However, not all of them. They won't like it, they don't need it, and they don't wanna pay for it. Many devices are just too dumb to be smartened up.

Do we really want our iron to be turned on in the morning? Really? Do we want to plug it in the night before? Of course not! This scenario only makes sense if it takes very long to heat up an iron. Moreover, it should not require actions from someone the night before. This means it needs to be wireless charged.

If there is no wireless charging infrastructure good luck with explaining how to use a smart iron to your mum.

The only other technology on this road map is a robot that does these chores. There are better investments right now, because the dexterity of robots is not good enough for tasks like this.

What is gonna be the future? Every device speaking the same language is an Esperanto utopia. This means that an investor does not need to wait till some kind of "standard" emerges. Each standard is followed by another one. Countries are not waiting with building railways till they get one with the "correct" width. Mobile technologies go through generations: 1G, 2G, 3G, 4G. Standards exist to be violated and renewed. This means more money for the providers, better technology for the users! Never wait for a standard to build an infrastructure!

It is not trivial to bet on the right technology, but it isn't that complicated either.

The social sciences have been running the show, creating apps like Yo. A total disrespect for words. Hodor! Hodor!!!

You can just as well think of Whisper, Spottly, Shopally, Drync, Signal, Foursquare, Whatsapp, or Twitter. Sure, it is fun, as is a Santa on blades! However, the probability that they don't exist in 2025 is close to 100%. And I don't mean Santa on blades here. :-)

As investor or entrepreneur, think about technology in 2025. Don't get wrapped up in social fads! My personal three bets:

• The entity that pushes a wireless charging infrastructure will be big! Consider no wires, no connectors. Consider the small form factors thanks to small batteries. Consider lack of recharging. Lots of things now do not have a chip because wireless charging is not a thing! Nobody wants to charge their umbrella, suitcase, whatever. The only way to bring these online is by providing ubiquitous wireless charging. 
• The entity that takes care of the indoor localization infrastructure. We already throw our privacy outside out of the window with GPS, etc. Our buildings only require the last few meter accuracy to be able to react to our presence. Only then they can be energy efficient, optimize cleaning costs, or automatically do stuff for us. This type of pseudo-privacy sucks for the environment and will disappear. 
• The entity that takes care of the global wallet infrastructure. Everyone should be able to pay everybody else in the world. Transaction fees should be normal and transparent. I don't care so much about the blockchain, even less about the Bitcoin, but distributed consensus algorithms might play a role. The real challenge however is to provide every person in the world with a virtual wallet.

These three are the ones I find very logical to exist in 2025. There are other ones of course. Google is still the prevailing champion of making the internet searchable or accessible to everyone. AirBnB or a company like that will be able to match people and properties for a very long time. Uber won't work but that's because I think autonomous cars will be owned, not shared.

I haven't addressed all the companies in solar power, aquaculture, brain scanning, gene technology, or artificial intelligence (maybe later more). The only thing I would recommend again and again is:

think infrastructure!