International Enrollment in the United States will experience a major decline due to COVID 19
By Dean Hoke, Managing Partner Edu Alliance Group, North America June 29, 2020.
The year 2020 has been an unprecedented time worldwide, and we are in the middle of a perfect storm. The COVID 19 pandemic has resulted in a devastating loss of life and damage to all economies. Higher education has not been spared.
Edu Alliance on June 6-12 surveyed university President’s and senior cabinet-level officers in which we asked the question, Do you expect at your university this fall a decline in enrolled international students? We received sixty-one (21.8%) responses representing eight countries and over 1.25 million students.
The charts below are the survey results from US institutions broken down between public and private.
Other organizations have been studying the potential decline in international students as well. Quacquarelli Symonds, better know as QS, a highly respected worldwide ranking service, published in June 2020, a worldwide study titled “How COVID 19 is Impacting Prospective International Students Across the Globe”. They received more than 19,000 responses from students since February 2020, asking how the coronavirus affected their plans to study abroad. Below are the responses to three key questions.
International student numbers will decline significantly in US Universities in Fall 2020 – due to the pandemic related to travel, safety, and visa restrictions as well as changes in US immigration policies pertaining to student visas. It is our view it will take at least 4-5 years before international student enrollment will return to Fall 2019 levels no matter who is the President of the United States. Realistically we should expect a quicker rate of closures and consolidations in the private and public sectors. Even online courses and degree expansion cannot prevent it.
International students come because the US education brand is the gold standard in terms of quality and reputation. The world rankings groups such as QS show 151 of the top 1,000 universities are located in the United States. The quality of education, its research capacity, and job opportunities for its graduates are highly desired by students, parents, and employers. Of the 5.3 million international students worldwide, 860,000 are attending on US soil. There are also thousands of other students who attend US international branch campus (IBC) schools.
NAFSA (The Association of International Educators) estimates US schools spent more than $600 million in assisting international students and staff since March 2020 and will lose $3 billion from reduced foreign enrollment in the fall.
Educators try planning for every contingency, but I doubt any planning book exists on how to proceed when a pandemic hits. As a friend of mine who has worked with the higher education community for over 50 years and is a university trustee for two institutions stated in a virtual conference, “the only thing you can do at the moment is to seek shelter and when the storm is over, dig out, and rebuild.”
US higher education institutions are putting maximum efforts to retain the international students who are in residing in the US. NAFSA states in its Financial Impact Survey Report highlighted that US institutions had lost nearly $1 billion due to reduced or canceled study abroad programs. They additionally spent approximately $638 million in aid on students and staff who remained on campus after classes moved online, and expects a $3 billion loss due to declining enrollment in the fall. All conventional methods, including additional enhanced online courses, are being offered, but it will take some truly out of the box thinking.
Here is one example. The Pie News in a June 26 story titled “Universities consider charter flights for international students” the University of Bolton located in the UK has made plans to fly in students from India, China, and before the new semester starts in September. Similar ideas have been made or are being considered by universities in Northern Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand.
The use of chartered flight is one example, and it has the support of their respective governments, but private flights may not be feasible for your institution. Different thinking is now required, and higher education needs to be willing to take calculated risks.
What “Out of the Box” concepts is your university considering? Edu Alliance and your colleagues would like to hear your ideas.
Associate Provost for Academic and Student Affairs at American University of Ras Al Khaimah
4 年Dean, This is one of the best summaries of the impact on higher ed that I have read, and I have read many. I encourage you to think about submitting it as a letter to the editor of the NYTimes since they regularly publish these fact/ opinion based pieces. Well done, my friend!
Ashridge Business School UK & CIPD
4 年Thank you for sharing the survey results. In order to cope up with the current situation, a new blended learning win win model might emerge in higher education. Lower costs of the new model , will support the brands to penetrate into International markets and the other emerging markets.
Some really solid info Dean. Very interesting read!
Head of Learning and Organizational Development at Shapoorji Pallonji International
4 年Dean, Thanks for sharing the survey results. Most universities in the US who depend on foreign student enrolment from regions like China and the Middle East for undergraduate programmes are suffering big time this year (their contribution is substantial, in the $45 billion market). As a result, many top universitirs are forced to relax administration norms for local US students (ex. No SAT score needed). I have come across many cases where students who were to join US and UK universities in August 2020 are taking a year's break as opposed to paying big bucks to join online classes. Assuming by summer of 2021, we come out of this pandemic, what will be the impact on admission, as it would involve almost twice the number of students?