Interest Rate Predictions

It’s important that we all keep an eye on rates. Moving forward is more important than looking back. Rates went up quite a bit recently, but have already dropped about 20 BPS from their highs. Today, the FED is expected to lower rates by 25 BPS. That’s old news unless they comment on additional new concerns about the economy. I will continue to share my market opinions with you and welcome your thoughts as we move forward together. Please take a moment to read the two articles below.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/cramer-says-fedex-call-was-extremely-dispiriting-about-the-economy.html - I agree that the majority of the slowdown is due to other countries. For example, China has lost $3M jobs recently. As we continue to win trade deals, it’s good for the US and not other countries. This could lead to an “imported recession” and has already led to an imported slowdown that appears to have legs.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgans-dimon-doubts-trump-and-china-will-strike-trade-deal-before-2020-election-2019-09-18 - The Democrats are betting on a recession to win the Presidential election. With a global slowdown building steam, in my opinion, it makes sense for China to see if that comes to fruition. If it does, they will not have to negotiate at the levels they are looking at with Trump – if at all. For now, the economy doesn’t look like it’s on the upswing. As long as that’s the case, I don’t see China moving to a deal with Trump.