Intention & Capacity for Ending Combat in Gaza
The Desert of Davos in Riyadh in October Business Leaders Confront a Dilemma Over 'Davos in the Desert'? and the COP28 event in Nov/Dec in Dubai The resumption of the Israel-Hamas war casts long shadow over Dubai's COP28 climate talks - The Washington Post? has been overshadowed by the Israel/Hamas conflict, and removed from many social media feeds the Russian invasion of Ukraine Putin’s brutal war on Ukraine vanishes from news coverage amid raging conflict in Gaza | CNN Business? from the media headlines.?
The magnitude of conflict, devastation, suffering and deaths, ‘...At least 200 Palestinians have been killed since the fighting resumed Friday morning…’ Israel intensifies its assault on southern Gaza, causing renewed concern about civilian deaths | AP News, ? may just provide a real opportunity for a two state solution, but addressing an acceptable resolution by Israel/Palestinians in Gaza is the first step.?
Many had hoped a humanitarian pause (7 days) would lead to a truce resulting in a ceasefire with the hope of serious talks for a two state solution.?
But, December 1, the combat operations/war restarted.?
Intention & Capacity
For Gaza, and the bigger picture of a two state solution, it, security for Israel and self determination for Palestinians,? comes down to intention and capacity of all involved stakeholders?
The intention (imagination) to be bound to move the needle from zero confidence, end the cycle of death and destruction, and the lack of security and self determination.
The capacity (to execute) to make the intent happen is on the involved actors.?
But, are the present actors of death and destruction capable of security and self determination? Former Secretary of State and Presidential candidate in 2016, Hillary Clinton, said new leadership is required in both Israel and Palestine for peace prospects/deal.? Clinton Says Israelis and Palestinians Need New Leadership - Bloomberg?
Recency Bias
In trying to understand positions of parties, it's important to view the ‘time-line’ biases, an important point made by Linda Weissgold, spent 37 years at the CIA and was an analyst and leader of analytic programs on the Middle East for 15 years.
‘Recency bias is the human tendency to prioritize the newest information we receive. In other words, the horrors of war in the Gaza Strip become more shocking the further away we get from the events of Oct. 7. Recency bias is more prevalent in the U.S. than the Middle East, which has a more acute sense of history, and it is becoming even more rampant in the digital age. It’s difficult to have a conversation with many Israelis and Palestinians that doesn’t include a reference to something that happened hundreds, if not thousands, of years ago. In the U.S., it’s hard to have a conversation that doesn’t feature prominently something that appeared on social media or cable news in the last few hours.’ https://www.barrons.com/articles/middle-east-hamas-israel-war-cease-fire-peace-conflict-e6026150?st=1rldrey2ofaiq98.
So, the question, based on history and what's trending today,? for Israel to address is ‘how to get Hamas to release all the hostages while bringing this war to a halt, and how to do that while protecting Israeli security in the long run—i.e., without creating the impression that Hamas has won this war...? Israel-Hamas war: Why it's a good idea to extend the cease-fire.?
The ending of the 7 day truce/pause and restarting the combat operations will showcase (1) if Hamas regrouped, replenished, and recovered from the massive retaliatory bombing/ground invasion, and (2) if Israel lost momentum, with Netanyahu pursuit of? remaining hostages (105 freed by Hamas and 240 freed by Israel) and eradication of Hamas, which may cause more civilian casualties as conflict moves center/south Gaza, a concern for President Biden.?
‘Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli government advisor, told the Wall Street Journal that he had never seen Israeli citizens so enthusiastic about a US leader as they are about President Biden, so the increasingly unpopular Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose support if he did not comply with US demands' Israel-Hamas war resumes following temporary truce | Semafor?
External Coordinated Pressure: 104 out 193
The post pause/restart war period is the right time for those countries that recognize both Israel and Palestine to apply the pressure of negative forces of attraction for encouragement between the two parties to come together to ‘restart’ combat free negotiations for Gaza first.
But, who will represent Israel, low polling Netanyahu who had intelligence about Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan Over a Year Ago - The New York Times, and who will represent the Palestinians, reformed/revitalized Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas, running occupied West Bank?
‘As of November 2023, 163 UN member states have recognized Israel, while 138 have recognized Palestine…none of the G7 and only nine of the G20 have recognized the state…both Israel and Palestine took steps towards recognition under the Oslo Accords, signed on September 13, 1993. The agreement saw Palestine recognize the State of Israel…’ Mapped: Recognition of Israel and Palestine by Country
Thus, today, 104 out of 193 countries recognize both Israel and Palestine.? All BRICS countries, an expanding platform for the global south, recognize both countries, and amongst the invited countries to BRICS, 4 (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia and UAE) of the 6 (Iran and Saudi Arabia) recognize both countries and seven (7) of the 14 OPEC + (Russia) recognize both.
Implications of G7 Recognition of Palestine
One obvious question is, why don’t the G7 countries recognize Palestine if they are serious about peace in Gaza and eventual two-state solution??
What is the concern or fear of G7? It may actually help the Palestinians, who are doing less well today than 2005/6 (when Hamas took over Gaza), to demand cease fire, mediation for two state solution, and for UN monitored elections on the road for self determination.
Leads to the next question of, what is the court of public opinion amongst Palestinians about Hamas? Surely, G7 cannot be tone deaf in what Palestinians today want.
?Pre-Oct 7 Poll (Second Occupation)
There is more fear and less trust in Gaza for Hamas.
“We find in our surveys [Arab Barometer which conducts surveys and polling in the region, including in Gaza where fieldwork concluded on the eve of the attacks on Israel] that 67 percent of Palestinians in Gaza had little or no trust in Hamas in that period right before the attacks…This is especially important because of the (erroneous) argument that all of Gaza supports Hamas, and therefore all of Gaza should be held accountable for the actions, atrocious actions of Hamas …’ said Amaney Jamal, dean of Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs.?
She continued, ‘Seventy-five percent said in the previous 30 days, they could not afford to feed their households. So again, this is an impoverished society, a society that is basically saying the Hamas-led government has some levels of corruption was seen as “corrupt” and “authoritarian” by many respondents…When we ask people, who do you blame?… we thought that the number-one culprit was going to be Israel because of the blockade. But most people cited Hamas corruption, more so than they cited the Israel blockade…For the average Palestinian in the West Bank or in Gaza (they say) ‘we have this (Israeli) occupation and then we have these Palestinian governments that are also authoritarian’. So a common phrase is "we used to be occupied by one power, now we’re occupied by two.”?
Post Oct 7 Poll
Spike in approval of Hamas is temporary and fleeting.
From a recent poll ‘..conducted by Arab World for Research and Development [AWRAD], a public opinion research firm affiliated with Birzeit University in the West Bank…Roughly 75% of Palestinians supported Hamas’ attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, according to AWRAD’s survey conducted in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip between Oct. 31 and Nov. 7. That number could be as high as 86%, since 11% said that they didn’t have an opinion, or in other words didn’t object. Only 10% said they support the Palestinian Authority, while 76% expressed support for Hamas. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a smaller terrorist faction in Gaza, enjoyed even higher support than Hamas.’?
But, no admiration of Hamas in Gaza (post Oct 7)...
‘Hamas is less favorably viewed in Gaza, where its rule has been marred by persistent allegations of corruption and incompetence — 64% of 668 people canvassed there in the AWRD poll backed its strike on Israel.??
Eman Baraka, 34, a volunteer at a hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, which houses tens of thousands of people displaced by the war, said Hamas is facing criticism for failing to consider how civilians would be affected by its attack and for the way it has handled the distribution of aid.?
“Even some of those who support Hamas say it has devastated them,” she said by phone.?
Reham Owda, a Gaza-based analyst, accused Hamas of only concerning itself with the liberation of a limited number of prisoners from the West Bank and Jerusalem to further itself politically.?
“It has left more than 2 million Gazans alone to face their fate, exposed to the worst kinds of killing and destruction, and delegated the responsibility of protecting civilians to international organizations,” she said. “I believe that once the war is over, the intensity of this criticism against Hamas will openly increase. It is expected that support from Gazans in any upcoming elections will lean towards independent civil political figures and Fatah.”
Gaza conflict increased settler violence?
The spike in Hamas popularity usually rises during conflict, hence, Israel retaliatory bombings and ground invasion civilian deaths in Gaza in the last 7 weeks, 7 day pause and return of the women/children prisoners can be attributed to celebrations in parts of the occupied west bank. The extremist settlers saw the offensive in Gaza as a ‘license’ to launch/expand aggressiveness towards Palestinians in the occupied west bank.? Palestinians face beatings, fires and drones from Israeli settlers in West Bank - Los Angeles Times ]
‘…Netanyahu has no interest in doing this [reducing conflict], and the coalition partners that keep him in power have less interest still; in fact, they have expanded the number of settlements in the West Bank, and they have done nothing to arrest or prosecute the most radical settlers who have killed or looted Palestinian residents in recent months. These settlers’ violent actions have made more and more of these Palestinians supportive of Hamas—which makes a peaceful solution all the more difficult.’ Israel Must Loudly Arrest the Murderous West Bank Settlers?
Shorten War: Exile Hamas Leadership
‘To shorten the war, there were suggestions in The Wall Street Journal on (Nov 30)? that a plan is being hatched that may suit both Israel and Hamas. It borrows from the US-brokered deal that saw Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and his fighters flee Beirut during Israel’s 1982 siege of the Lebanese capital, and envisages Hamas’s leaders and its soldiers leaving Gaza for a third country in order that it becomes – as Mr Netanyahu has promised – a Hamas-free zone.
‘Israeli and US officials are discussing the idea of expelling thousands of lower-level militants from the Palestinian enclave as a way to shorten the war..’ Netanyahu faces one of biggest days in his political career – DNyuz?
What country will take in Hamas, Turkey?? Syria? Lebanon? Iran? Sudan??
Does one realistically believe Hamas will be living in peace in the proposed third country?
[There are also conversations about ‘Gaza Restoration Authority’ backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a Hamas free zone, assuming it also covers the occupied west bank. What does ‘Hamas free zone’ mean? Will Israel feel safe?]
Eliminate Top Management of Hamas
‘President Joe Biden's administration sees eliminating Hamas' leadership as a far more attainable goal for Israel than the country's stated objective of eliminating Hamas entirely…Israel has killed Hamas' leaders in the past, including the group's founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and its former leader Abdel-Aziz al-Rantisi, assassinated in a 2004 air strike. New commanders rose to fill their ranks.’ Israel's most wanted: Three Hamas bosses in Gaza Tel Aviv must kill to win
Ismail Haniyeh (Overall leader)
A prominent member of the movement in the late 1980s, Israel imprisoned Haniyeh for three years in 1989 as it cracked down on the first Palestinian uprising.
He was elected head of Hamas's political bureau in 2017.
In 2018, the US Department of State designated Haniyeh a terrorist. He has lived in Qatar for the past several years.
Yahya Sinwar
The leader of the Hamas movement within the Gaza Strip
He was among 1,027 Palestinian and Israeli Arab prisoners released by Israel in exchange for an Israeli soldier held captive for over five years by Hamas.
Sinwar returned to his position as a prominent leader in Hamas and was appointed head of the group's political bureau in the Gaza Strip in 2017. In 2015, the US included Sinwar on its blacklist of "international terrorists".
Mohammed Deif
Mohammed Deif leads the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military arm of the Hamas movement. After his release, he helped engineer the construction of tunnels that have allowed Hamas fighters to get inside Israel from Gaza,
Marwan Issa
Marwan Issa, or the Shadow Man and Mohammed Deif's right-hand man, is the deputy commander-in-chief of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades.He is thought to have played a significant role in planning incursions into Israel, including the most recent.
Khaled Meshaal
Khaled Meshaal is considered one of the founders of Hamas. Hamas elected Ismail Haniyeh to succeed Meshaal as head of its political bureau in 2017, and Meshaal became head of the group's political bureau abroad.
Mahmoud Zahar
He is considered one of Hamas' most prominent leaders, and a member of the movement's political leadership. He went to school in Gaza and university in Cairo, then worked as a doctor in Gaza and Khan Younis until Israeli authorities dismissed him over his political position.
Negotiations for Buffer Zone and Hamas Exile?
The negotiations for release of hostages/exchange of prisoners and humanitarian aid for temporary truce was started shortly after Oct 7. It was led by US, Jake Sullivan (White House National Security Advisor), Stephen Blinken (Sec of State) and William Burns (Head of CIA), Israel, led by PM Netanyahu and David Barnea, Head of Mossad, Qatar, led by the Prime Minister Qatari Sheik Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, and Egypt, Intelligence Service.
It should be noted Qatar does not officially recognize Israel, but informal diplomatic relations exist.?
‘Qatar says Hamas’ political office in its capital, Doha, came about at the request of U.S. officials who wanted to establish a communication channel, just as Doha had hosted Taliban offices during America’s 20-year war in Afghanistan…The emirate has hosted an overseas Hamas political office since 2012, allowing Qatar to wield some influence over the militant group’s decision-makers…“This is soft power on steroids, mobilized for America’s interest,” said Patrick Theros, a former U.S. ambassador to Qatar. “Hosting organizations which the United States cannot be seen talking to is part of this policy."? Qatar is the go-to mediator in the Mideast war. Its unprecedented Tel Aviv trip saved a shaky truce - ABC News?
Buffer zone and Exile of Hamas Leaders
There are now more serious conversations about the Gaza post conflict, where a buffer (security) zone would be created inside Gaza, like done in south Lebanon, and security overseen by Arab/Nato/International forces until elections can take place.?
The issue is the location of the buffer zone. If it's inside Gaza, it would be a dispossession/encroachment and reduce the size of Gaza, an already densely populated place of 2.3M (pre Oct 7). President Biden has said he would not accept a reduction in the size of Gaza.
US Vice President Kamala Harris at the COP28 gathering said that ‘..under no circumstances will the United States permit the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank, the besiegement of Gaza, or the redrawing of the borders of Gaza…’ VP Harris sketches out US vision of post-conflict Gaza at COP | Reuters?
But, assuming a buffer can be created that does not dispossess land in Gaza, will Israel feel secure?
Can the negotiating quartet (plus UAE) blueprint an acceptable buffer zone and exit/exile of Hamas/Hamas ideology from the proposed Palestine state??
If exile is not possible, or even if it is, PM Netanyahu has said,? “I have instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are.’ Most of the present Hamas (mentioned above) leaders have survived assassination attempts.?
Funding of Hamas
As dialogues on buffer zone, exile/extermination of Hamas leaders, Gaza restoration authority, revitalizing PA, etc, continue, funding of Hamas has become front and center.
‘One of this conflict’s greatest ironies is that Hamas has Netanyahu to thank in part for its strength. For years, he has propped up Hamas in Gaza in order to weaken the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, or P.A., in the West Bank, thereby dashing hopes for a two-state solution. He reportedly admitted as much in 2019, in defending his decision to allow Qatari funds to flow into Gaza.’
Following the money trail, including cryptocurrency, is not easy, especially if suitcases of cash are involved.?
‘...Israel has allowed suitcases holding millions in Qatari cash to enter Gaza through its crossings since 2018, in order to maintain its fragile ceasefire with the Hamas rulers of the Strip…Most of the time, Israeli policy was to treat the Palestinian Authority as a burden and Hamas as an asset. Far-right MK Bezalel Smotrich, now the finance minister in the hardline government and leader of the Religious Zionism party, said so himself in 2015.
Funding Hamas Task Force?
‘The task force will enhance sharing of financial intelligence on terrorist-financing related matters and will discuss best practices and opportunities for additional actions and partnerships, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement…Since the Oct. 7 attack, Washington has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Hamas. It has targeted the group's investment portfolio and issued an alert to financial institutions on countering Hamas financing while senior officials have discussed the group's access to funds on trips abroad.
Conclusion
The G7 should recognize Palestine under the revitalized Palestine Authority.?
The 104 countries recognizing both Israel and Palestine must do more to bring them to the table for talks.?
The exile of Hamas leaders.
There must be a pause again that turns into a cease-fire, which allows for a buffer/security zone in Israel that is overseen by international forces, allowing time for elections in Gaza and West bank.
Rebuilding of Gaza could come from the money the US is holding for Iran. House passes bill to permanently freeze $6B in Iranian funds | The Hill?
The intention and capacity of the world for de-escalating the conflict in Gaza is the first test, so far, grade of ‘C, if not, D.’
But, 'A' for effort on part of the negotiators.
Knowledge Seeker/Distributor & Opinions/Posts are Personal
1 年Is the low poll rated Bibi, who has not yet taken responsibility for Oct 7 intelligence failure (or failure to understand intent/capacity of Hamas), a security threat to Israel ... is it possible to bomb a hate ideology and its backers into extinction, including assassinations .. the 'whack a mole' theory comes into play ... https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-hamas-war.html