Intent To Integrity: A pledge is not a plan
Net Zero Tracker
Tracking the quantity and quality of net zero pledges across nations, regions, cities and companies.
If ‘sunlight is the best disinfectant’ for climate inaction, most private firms are operating nocturnally.
Our latest analysis compares the mitigation pledges of the world’s 100 largest private companies with their publicly-listed counterparts, finding a large disparity in target setting and on plans to achieve them.??
This edition also includes insights from the third ‘deep dive’ Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor, published by Tracker co-leads NewClimate Institute (and Carbon Market Watch ) on the transparency and integrity of 51 company climate pledges and strategies.?
Post-COP28, we reflect on our fossil fuel phase-out analysis across nations, regions and companies with net zero targets, and how these entities should be delivering the new global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels.
In other news:?
Climate regulations are increasingly capturing private firms in their remits, raising risks for those determined to keep their heads in the sand and out of the sunlight.?
This was a key insight from our latest report, launched today. The study shows a wide disparity between the climate targets of the world’s largest 100 private companies and their publicly listed equivalents.
Private companies are almost half as likely as their public counterparts to have set net zero targets. Where they have set them, private companies are a quarter as likely to have published plans describing how they will achieve them.
Key insights:
The report places these results in the context of incoming regulation that is steadily mandating private company participation in ‘whole economy’ decarbonisation. Leading efforts is the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (#CSRD), which creates a ‘duty to disclose’ for almost 50,000 publicly-listed and private firms, including many large private companies from 1 January 2025.
We also single the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (#CSDDD) — which, once adopted, will create a ‘duty to act’.
John Lang, of ECIU and project lead at Net Zero Tracker, said:
“New measures being introduced in regions from the EU to the US to Singapore — some with extra-territorial dimensions — are changing the rules of the game. What goes on in the EU does not stay in the EU. And what goes on in a regulated public company does not stay in a public company: one company’s indirect emissions are another's direct emissions.”
Slow Improvement in Companies’ Climate Targets: The 2024 Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor
A thorough analysis of 51 of the world’s largest companies’ climate targets shows their targets represent a collective average emissions reduction of 30% by 2030, falling short of the 43% required to limit global warming to 1.5°C, according to NewClimate Institute in collaboration with Carbon Market Watch.
The third Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor (CCRM) recognises slight improvements in the companies’ targets. But it also warns against taking these targets at face value, as many companies are still relying on loopholes and false solutions to exaggerate the ambition of their plans. Proposed rules on the use of carbon credits also threaten to nullify the already insufficient commitments, according to the analysis.
Frederic Hans, from NewClimate Institute, said:?
“Four years into the critical decade for action on climate change, some companies have understood the need to set 2030 targets that are aligned with the latest climate science and substantiated by credible measures to achieve them. However, there still is a concerning lack of commitment and urgency from too many companies to undertake credible climate action.”
Catherine McKenna, Chair of the UN Secretary-General’s High-level Expert Group on Net-Zero Commitments, said:?
"The improvement in the climate commitments of some of the world’s corporate leaders is positive, making the pathway to net zero stand out even more clearly. But, we need 2024 to be the year where incrementalism is cast off.?
“The policy is unequivocal: three quarters of national-level net zero targets are already enshrined in law or policy. The economics is exponential: $1.7 trillion was invested in clean energy in 2023, 65% more than into fossil fuels.?
As well as providing a vital resource for the climate community, the CCRM was published in media outlets around the world, from France, to Germany to the US and Korean to many other countries, as our data lead Camilla witnessed when passing through Cape Town airport.
COP28 Recap: Benchmarking the fossil fuel phase out pledges
With the smoke cleared from COP28, but emissions still rising, one of the UN summit’s critical outcomes is clearer than ever: the global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels.
?To bring clarity to the landscape, our In the Pipeline report, which launched at COP28, provided the first global benchmark of fossil fuel phase-out plans across nations, regions, cities and companies with net zero targets.
The results were stark. Despite rapid and wide uptake of net zero targets, which cover 88% of global GHG emissions, only 7% of emissions are covered by any kind of national commitment to phase-out the exploration, production or use of coal, oil or gas.
With the last three COPs held in oil and gas-producing countries (UK, Egypt and UAE) it’s significant that 94% of oil-producing countries have not set an oil exploration phase-out pledge, with a similar number (95%) failing to commit to phase-out gas exploration.
This analysis rivalled our annual Net Zero Stocktake in terms of media attention, with articles in more than 60 media outlets, including Reuters, New York Times and Washington Post. With a combined audience of 427m, the campaign drove over 2.5m estimated views.
You can view our COP28 press conference which launched the analysis — and please watch this space for progress tracking of fossil fuel phase-out plans.
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Revised Offsetting Principles tackle crisis of credibility on carbon credits
The newly revised Oxford Offsetting Principles were recently published, hoping to help unlock a credible market for carbon credits. Devised by the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment in collaboration with Tracker co-lead, Oxford Net Zero, the Principles shed light on where offsetting (carbon credit) practices should be going to align with net zero goals.
Our Data Explorer (available on the NZT homepage) shows the lack of clarity on the use of carbon credits. Targets that either lack or do not specify conditions on the use of offsets (pink and red bars, respectively) predominate.
This strategic ambiguity across all entity types leaves the door open to the use of low integrity credits.
Positioning climate for success at the ballot box in the super election year
NZT co-lead, Professor Thomas Hale, The Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford reported in Economist Impact on the implications of the current ‘super election year’ for climate change.
The article debunks the myth that democracy is necessarily a barrier to climate action, referencing NZT data showing that 33 of the 47 countries that still lack net zero targets are autocracies, whilst 22 of the 25 countries with legally binding net zero targets are democracies.
Professor Thomas Hale, said:
“What happens in this year’s elections will matter hugely for the climate. But even the worst-case scenario cannot fundamentally reverse a transition well under way, while in the best-case scenario voters could drive a decisive step forward.”
Did we mention he’s just written a book? Thomas Hale’s Long Problems: Climate Change and the Challenge of Governing Across Time was recently reviewed in the New York Times, and is available to pre-order from Princeton University Press here.
Net Zero: Explained
Education on the science behind net zero is integral to engaging communities, overcoming resistance, and accelerating the transition to the only solution we have to stabilise temperature increase. That’s why, in collaboration with on-demand video education platform, Sustainability Unlocked, we have co-produced a series of short films in which our experts demystify the concept of net zero, and other climate-related topics.
Available explainer videos include:
?The films are available for free (outside of the usual paywall) for anyone interested in boosting their net zero literacy. More films will be available soon, including Oxford Net Zero’s Dr. Steve Smith on the science behind net zero targets, and NewClimate’s Frederic Hans on corporate net zero best practice.
Net Zero: Visualised
?If you laid out the seven reports that make up the IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle on top of one another, they'd collectively stand 47.5cm tall and weigh 28kg. The final installation of Tracker project lead John Lang 's four-part infographic series helps you to avoid the heavy lifting.
Net Zero Tracker at Bonn, SB60
We are co-hosting a side event at Bonn (3-13 June) on ‘The role of the private sector in bolstering ambitious and credible NDCs on the road to COP30.’
Alongside speakers from the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, Climate Chance and CDP, we’ll discuss the role of the private sector in supporting upgraded national emission-cutting plans (NDCs).
?Please keep an eye on our social channels for more details and the confirmed date for the event:
Net Zero Hero
Last, but by no means least, huge kudos to Lucy Main, who has just completed the coding of her 98th entity. Lucy has been a NZT volunteer since 2021, joining the cohort while studying physics at Oxford.
Lucy says “It's been fantastic to be involved with the Tracker for the past few years, and to continue even after I graduated. I've learnt a huge amount by volunteering and being part of a global community seeking commitment and transparency is really rewarding.”
Lucy, we salute you and all of the NZT volunteers who make it possible to provide the world's largest 'living' database of global climate commitments.
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That’s a wrap. Thank you for your ongoing support and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected] with suggestions or to learn more about joining our volunteer programme.
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And please forward this to others that are interested in shifting global net zero commitments from intent to integrity.
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The Net Zero Tracker team