Intelligent Mapping of Future Service Needs for Our Ageing Citizens to 2030 and Well Beyond Jem Golden
Jem Golden
Sessional University Lecturer/Tutor, Strategic Research Consultant, Analyst/Writer
Researching and talking to experts in Australia I have been struck by the ingenuity, far-sighted strategic planning, and application of radical technology solutions, in their approach towards care for older people.
I started analysis of Australia with Dr Kathleen Brasher’s perspective on post-COVID society and the age-friendly agenda in the first article and for postings later in July, I will assess the Wheatbelt Integrated Aged Care Solution – the largest aged-care initiative worldwide - and also innovation in rural communities for supporting ageing in place.
At the Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Dr. Hamish Robertson and Nick Nicholas have designed a very intuitive, multi-layered data-informed ‘visuospatial’ tool to map out population ageing and modelled epidemiology. The application allows users to look at existing and future scenarios for chronic diseases by age demographics at a national level, city council level all the way down to city block.
Dr Robertson explains “When ageing is not managed properly the human consequences are quite phenomenal. ?We also know the health and social care systems may struggle to respond effectively to ageing because it is hugely complex; for instance, the general trend of population ageing can vary significantly by location and, typically, planning and response mechanisms to these dynamics are often slow.?
So, if we want to care for older people more effectively, we need to better understand them and their situational contexts. This includes an analysis firstly of where they live and how their social, biological and clinical trajectories are progressing. Also, to identify the availability of appropriate care services within a specific locality, which can differ hugely.”
Having mapped future service users and existing service providers, especially relative to ageing-population-level need (and estimates of such needs), Robertson and Nicholas’s data visualisation tool identifies future gaps in service provision. ?In other words, where are we at now and how is this scenario likely to change at some future point or points??
This makes the modelling system highly practical to meet the needs of diverse groups whose interests may all be focused on aged care but who come from different backgrounds and therefore will likely have different priorities such as policy planners, clinicians and nursing care operators among others.
For the examples here, the first ‘map’ is of metropolitan Sydney with dementia estimates by level of severity for the year 2030. The second map shows total dementia cases for New South Wales (NSW), non-metropolitan areas of the state. NSW is Australia’s most populous (but not geographically the largest) state with around 8.15 million people. The user is able to zoom in or out and also switch geographies to analyse different regions and issues of interest. Different service providers can be highlighted, or minimised, to explore different questions, and local data can be added to improve small area knowledge and understanding such as the number of people over eighty years old living alone in a community or area.
Map 1: Metropolitan Sydney with dementia estimated population given by suburban area (e.g. Canterbury, Rouse Hill) and by level of severity for the year 2030
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Map 2: total dementia cases for the state of New South Wales (NSW) year 2030, highlighting non-metropolitan areas of the state
In these examples provided, the visuospatial mapping or visual output is not a fixed or static attempt to describe a known complex situation, in this case dementia prevalence and its impacts but, rather, permits the visualisation process to be developed over time as an explanatory tool with ‘what-if’, or simulation capabilities. This makes it a deliberately adaptive modelling environment in which new or better data can be added and new questions or concerns addressed.
While the model to date has been developed using Australian statistical data for analysis of Australia only, Dr Robertson says that the concept is readily transferable to other countries to inform about how to more effectively plan for and implement ageing care services.
In an updated version, the team will be incorporating the costing estimates for different types of formal care provided and so link the visuospatial mapping of ageing population locations (for the major cities and non-metropolitan areas) and by disease sub-types with a more complete set of service-supporting metrics relating to the issues of workforce distribution, health and social care services and financial investment scenarios.
An additional consideration is the skills of the available workforce and how evenly?or unevenly skilled workers are distributed relative to current and emerging need. Currently, the demand for clinical and personal care staff is growing at pace in health. The challenge in getting workers to take employment across areas of geographic need is another matter entirely. In Australia, this issue is especially problematic and remains unresolved.
However sophisticated such modelling becomes or persuasive the evidence generated by the data analysis, this is no guarantee that policies, funding and service provisions will necessarily flow in the right direction.
Dr Robertson concludes that without using models such as the one he and Nick have developed, connecting spatial information to demography, epidemiology and service infrastructure provision, the evidence base for prioritisation, planning and the evaluation of funded services for our ageing citizens especially for long-term strategy purposes will inevitably be very limited and speculative. And this has major implications for the sustainability, quality and effectiveness of our aged care systems now and into the future.?
Sources for article
Interview with Dr. Hamish Robertson (in July 2021), Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney,
Hamish Profile: https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/hamish-robertson-738a1946/
Geographies of Ageing: A Visuospatial Approach to Demographic Change in Australia by Robertson and Nicholas
Consultant (Positive Partnerships, Autism South Australia). Leadership, mentoring (Future Leaders, Autism CRC program.) Advocacy (Education planning and support).
3 年My concern is the future of autistic adults who are aging. Services in general do accommodate autistics and from what I have seen, aged care is even further behind. We are a large group comprising a third of the NDIS participants, however many of us with late diagnosis have not been eligible for any support. We often do not fit the criteria for My Aged Care, so we have a dismal future as aging citizens. Once we are in high needs supported living, things are no different. Carers usually think we are just difficult and annoying and do not understand the needs of autistic adults. Even the organisations which should support us do not understand. Even worse, offers of information and training are often rejected. Time to act with training delivered by autistics.
Founder | Healthcare | Pharma | Tech | FMCG
3 年This is an excellent article Jeremy, one has to marvel at how far technology has come along in aiding daily living for care givers and receivers around the world.
An excellent piece showing the power of technology, but also highlighting how important it is to take actions that can help vulnerable groups.
Owner of Altruistic Home Health
3 年This research is wonderful, and our senior community deserve to be able to age in place. It is very honorable to be part of the senior community and I salute anyone else who serves the community as well. Very well done Jem.
Executive Director | Available for Non-Exec roles
3 年Very impressive visualisation, with considerable data available for users to manipulate themselves. Power BI is a useful tool for this, and I look forward to seeing data from other key cities/regions/countries being made available in a similar format.