Intelligencer Vol 4:
Bryan Alexandros
Fractional Strategy Lead | Aerospace | Defense | Indo-Pacific | Federal Partnerships
Read the previous issue here.
The Rundown:
This month's issue's explores global supply chains, US-China trade war, Thailand economic developments, quantum computing, and my 2￠ analyzing generative AI and its impact of the creative class. First, some housekeeping:
The Intelligencer Podcast Released
Recently, the audio version of this newsletter was launched. While still experimental, we need feedback on how to make it better. We may move into full-blown interviews in the future.
Visit ACEIS Electric & Power at the Defense & Security 2023 in Bangkok, Thailand
For those entering the Southeast Asian market we know it can be a tall order to scale in this region. We lead projects across aerospace, defense, and smart city infrastructure with wide access to customers and stakeholders who just may be looking for your products.
If you're looking to collaborate with us, find us at booth K14 of the USA Pavilion.
Register for free at the website. See you there!
Home: ACEIS Electric & Power
Zynolabs
Should a defense company create content on... Pinterest? (Answer: Unlikely)
WordPress was supposed to be the best choice to build your website because 44% of the internet runs on WordPress. Trust the crowd, right?
But that's also why it's one of the most hacked and exploited platforms. The statistics do not inspire confidence from our side.
These strategies and platforms do matter.
Zynolabs is a team of execs, content creators, and cinematographers serving the marketing needs of digital and defense companies.
Many marketers treat customers like cattle, treating their needs like generic break-fix task orders without understanding how these companies actually do business or acquire business.
Thinking of a marketing or branding audit? Talk to us.
Links: Zynolabs Home / Zynolabs LinkedIn
Ready? Let's get into it. ??
Will generative AI kill off a majority of the creative class?
Will you be replaced by GPT? No.
Will most of your work be replaced by GPT? Yes.
Rapidly advancing AI models, despite their flaws, are on the verge of rendering the vast majority of creative work obsolete. The digital age had already unleashed a legion of "creatives," but AI is about to decimate the least original.
So, what does that mean for the next generation of creatives?
Two major flaws underpin ChatGPT and generative AI:
The first is the lack of structured thinking and analytical rigor.
The outputs are produced using a probabilistic model of what may be right, not because it has actual cognition.
The second is the lack of originality.
Generative AI can invent new worlds, new images, and new paintings.
Whether Midjourney or RunwayML, AI can even supply the tools to creatives to invent those universes.
But generative AI models lack any capability to be truly original. AI models — for now — can't develop a logical argument on a topic it hasn't seen before. Probabilistic language models are far from intelligent, so they can't learn, reason, or critically think into the future that no one's seen before.
This poses an existential question to the creative class:
How much of their work is truly original? The uncomfortable truth is: Very little.
Even in entrepreneurship, how much of the outputs are truly new inventions or truly enterprising? Most succeeding products and services are technically "remixes" of existing solutions.
Most so-called journalism is a rehash of press releases and PR-supplied info.
Lots of marketing copy is a 5-second remix of prior work.
How many artists and writers developed their own unique voice, taste, and style?
The creative class was supposed to be the last heroic segment for employment in the digital age, a safe place from the aggressive automation of the modern economy. Mindless assembly line work and office work can be automated with robotics, but we assumed bots couldn't replace the originality of the human mind.
But did the economy ever need hundreds of millions of writers, artists and other creatives? Few realize that creative incomes have plunged as the supply of creatives increased — a basic illustration of supply and demand. There may be ample room for mavericks to inject originality and change culture, but not ample room for everybody to do it.
Likewise, do we need everybody to become entrepreneurs?
Generative AI can replace 90%+ of the creative class’s output:
This leads to two displacements:
First, many professionals will realize that their work is unoriginal.
Some will adapt and reinvent their role, migrating to more sophisticated, enterprising work.
The vast majority can't, won't, or will absolutely refuse to adjust to a new reality.
Second, the traditional path of "creative apprenticeships," within our institutions or higher education, will be disrupted; entire classes of creative professionals and creative trades will be expunged.
Beginning actors usually start with small, literally invisible roles; journalists begin with basic beat coverage before entering more complex assignments; and new directors usually start with short films to hone their skills before tackling feature-length projects. The pay is almost always pitiful before their careers even reach a breakthrough.
What happens to the millions of aspiring Gen Y and Gen Z creatives when those simpler creative tasks are now AI-replaceable?
In prior issues, I mentioned "If you’re a lone freelancer, programmer, or business owner that's afraid of "losing their job," examine your business model more closely.
If you're a "specialist," you're vulnerable; if you're a "generalist," where you can broaden your skillset, you're going to make a comeback.
Open up to learning the new AI tools that are now at your disposal, but do not let it completely replace your creativity.
As many of these tools like Midjourney et al. evolve and new ones emerge, they allow us to iterate in the creative process much faster than ever before. I’ve seen other practitioners who used to work primarily on digital, but decided to expand the value of their services by doing more consulting, workshops, speaking and more.... Things that AI cannot completely replace, yet.
Think about the "adjacencies."?Rather than specializing in one narrow niche, think about broadening your services.
Key Takeaways??
Humanoid Robot Walks for First Time
Figure demonstrates capabilities of ‘world’s first commercially viable' humanoid robot. The company claims that Figure 01 is the world’s first commercially viable humanoid robot, and that it will be able to work in many domains, such as manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, and retail.
Figure has raised $70 million in its first external funding round, and it plans to use torque-controlled walking, modular control strategy, whole body reasoning, and manipulation to enhance the capabilities of its robot.
Gartner Excludes Quantum Computing from its 2024 Top Tech Trends
Organizations should begin preparing for post-quantum security threats now, even though quantum computing is still in early stages.
This is especially relevant in the rise of smart cities, such as those in the EEC of Thailand, where advanced technology is being adopted in industrial estates, manufacturing zones, and other areas using fresh new infrastructure.
Planning for post-quantum cybersecurity now is the best way to ensure security into the future.
Why Language Models Fail: Ways to Enhance AI for Effective Deployments
Researchers warn of potential 'irreversible damage' from AI-generated falsities, citing historical data biases and lack of model evaluation.
We know that sometimes that large language models (LLMs), such as those used by ChatGPT, can generate creative content across various domains.
A group of researchers identify the main causes of factual errors in LLMs, such as problems with reasoning, data retrieval, and outdated information, including some ways to improve the reliability of LLMs, such as using evaluation metrics, benchmarks, continual training, retrieval augmentation, multi-agent approaches, and domain-specific training.
5 Things Business Leaders Need to Know About Generative AI
IJohn Harding, the regional director of enterprise business, North EMEA, at Nvidia discusses five things that business leaders need to know about generative AI, which is a technology that is creating new data and insights from existing datasets.
My summary:
China Restricts Exports of Graphite As It Escalates a Global Tech War
China, the world's largest producer of graphite, has announced plans to restrict exports of the mineral, citing national security concerns. The move comes just days after the United States imposed new limits on semiconductor exports to China.
Starting in December, exporters will need permits to ship two types of graphite: synthetic graphite material and natural flake graphite. Graphite is a key ingredient in batteries for electric vehicles, which are becoming increasingly popular as countries around the world transition to clean energy. Besides EVs, graphite is commonly used in the semiconductor, aerospace, chemical and steel industries.
According to the US Geological Survey (PDF), the market for graphite used in batteries has grown 250% globally since 2018. China was the world's leading graphite producer last year, accounting for an estimated 65% of global production
The move is seen as a retaliation for the US semiconductor sanctions. It is also seen as part of a broader trend of protectionism, as countries around the world seek to secure their own supplies of critical minerals and other resources.
领英推荐
Jon Stewart's Apple TV Plus Show Ends, Reportedly Over Coverage of AI and China
Multiple outlets are reporting that Apple TV+ has canceled Jon Stewart's popular show The Problem with Jon Stewart, reportedly over editorial disagreements with regards to planned stories on the People's Republic of China and AI.
"Apple approached Stewart directly and expressed its need for the host and his team to be 'aligned' with the company's views on topics discussed," reports The Verge, citing The Hollywood Reporter. "Rather than falling in line when Apple threatened to cancel the show, Stewart reportedly decided to walk."
New Nvidia AI Agent, Powered by GPT-4, Can Train Robots
Nvidia Research announced that it has developed a new AI agent, called Eureka, that is powered by OpenAI's GPT-4 and can autonomously teach robots complex skills.
From a report:
In a blog post, the company said Eureka, which autonomously writes reward algorithms, has, for the first time, trained a robotic hand to perform rapid pen-spinning tricks as well as a human can. Eureka has also taught robots to open drawers and cabinets, toss and catch balls, and manipulate scissors, among nearly 30 tasks. "Reinforcement learning has enabled impressive wins over the last decade, yet many challenges still exist, such as reward design, which remains a trial-and-error process," Anima Anandkumar, senior director of AI research at Nvidia and an author of the Eureka paper, said in the blog post. "Eureka is a first step toward developing new algorithms that integrate generative and reinforcement learning methods to solve hard tasks."
'Mind-Blowing' IBM Chip Speeds Up AI (nature.com)
A brain-inspired computer chip that could supercharge artificial intelligence by working faster with much less power has been developed by researchers at IBM in San Jose, California:
Their massive NorthPole processor chip eliminates the need to frequently access external memory, and so performs tasks such as image recognition faster than existing architectures do -- while consuming vastly less power.
"Its energy efficiency is just mind-blowing," says Damien Querlioz, a nanoelectronics researcher at the University of Paris-Saclay in Palaiseau. The work, published in Science, shows that computing and memory can be integrated on a large scale, he says. "I feel the paper will shake the common thinking in computer architecture."
NorthPole is a specialized chip designed to efficiently run neural networks. It is able to do this by integrating the compute and memory needed for neural networks on a single chip. This makes it much faster and more energy-efficient than traditional processors.
SEC Drops Claims Against Two Ripple Labs Execs
According to a court filing on Thursday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has withdrawn its allegations against two Ripple Labs executives in its lawsuit accusing the blockchain company of breaking U.S. securities law. The agency stated in court documents that it is no longer pursuing claims that Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen helped and encouraged sales of the digital currency XRP, which a judge ruled were unregistered securities offerings.
The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, claiming that it had illegally raised over $1.3 billion by selling XRP without registering it as a security. However, Ripple scored a partial victory in the case in July, when U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges did not count as unregistered securities offerings. Judge Torres also denied the SEC’s request to appeal her decision. On the other hand, she also sided with the SEC on some issues, finding that Ripple’s $728.9 million of XRP sales to hedge funds and other sophisticated investors had violated the law.
Garlinghouse and Larsen, who have been vocal in their criticism of the SEC throughout the case, issued long statements accusing the agency of having a political agenda to, in Larsen’s words, “strangle crypto in America.” “The SEC ignored the criminals who were stealing customer funds on offshore exchanges that were seeking political favor, and instead attacked the good guys,” Garlinghouse said, apparently referring to Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of crypto exchange FTX. The agency stated in its papers that the next step in the case is for both parties to present to the judge their arguments on what the appropriate penalty is for Ripple.
The $1.2 Billion Case for Quantum
The U.S. government should reauthorize and fund the Quantum Initiative Act, a law supporting quantum research and development in the country. Like stated earlier, short-term executive action from enterprises isn't necessary yet, but quantum computing is certainly a vital technology for the future, and the U.S. faces competition from other countries, especially China, in this field.
Like in most other areas of computer technology, the wealth and brainpower of Silicon Valley gives America a major leg up when it comes to quantum. But the technology is so complicated, and the transformations it might promise are still so far in the future, that the tech world and Washington alike are concerned with getting it right — and establishing American dominance — now, before scrappier or more determined actors (i.e., China) challenge the status quo.
Australia interested in investment in Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor
Thailand’s trade representative Nalinee Taveesin met with Australia’s ambassador to Thailand Angela Macdonald to discuss potential areas of cooperation, such as water resources, infrastructure, agricultural technology, and renewable energy.
Both Thailand and Australia have already signed three trade agreements and that Australia has opened its market for Thai cooked duck products, while Thailand has allowed the import of Australian avocados.
Read more for future prospects in their bilateral trade relations.
Biden eyes adding AI chip curbs to Chinese companies abroad
The U.S. government plans to tighten the export controls on artificial intelligence (AI) chips and chipmaking tools to China, in order to prevent China from advancing its military capabilities.
There currently exists a loophole that allows Chinese companies to access U.S. AI chips through their overseas subsidiaries, which could then be smuggled into China or used remotely by China-based users.
Read more to get an overview on the US-China rivalry and its impact on the global semiconductor industry.
Turbulence for SE Asia's Budget Carriers
New low-cost carriers in Southeast Asia are facing difficulties as bigger airlines may use price cuts to protect their market share. Really Cool Airlines’ CEO Patee Sarasin warned of the risks, pointing to the recent shutdown of Malaysian budget airline MYAirline due to financial problems.
Even though airfares have gone up after the pandemic, the budget segment is still sensitive to price. Larger airlines, who can afford to lower prices more often, could have an advantage. Sarasin expects a full aviation recovery, in terms of seat capacity, to take 10 years, considering various industry challenges.
Thailand embraces EVs on the new PMs command
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has ordered state agencies to give priority to electric vehicle (EV) purchases, set up more charging stations, and ensure low-cost EV insurance. This move is in line with Thailand’s goal to promote green transportation, reduce carbon emissions, and position itself as a top producer of EVs and components. Plans also include electrifying all public transport and offering incentives to encourage the public to switch from conventional vehicles to EVs. With ongoing incentives, EV sales in Thailand are expected to make up 8.7% of total vehicle sales in 2023.
US tech export curbs may not fit Japan's interests: former trade official
A former U.S. trade official said the U.S. curbs may not fit Japan’s interests, as Japan has more economic links with China. Discussed were the difficulties of balancing security and economic interests, and some examples of the U.S. export controls and their impacts on Japan, and some areas of potential collaboration between the U.S. and Japan.
Experts Explain How Gen AI Is Helping Businesses Automate Operations, Streamline Workflows
Square, Aeropay, and Emagia are using generative AI tools to automate operations, streamline workflows, and improve customer experience3s across various domains
I see this having wider implications. The potential of generative AI to enhance personalization, fraud prevention, compliance, and contextual commerce will especially be important.
Baidu Unveils Ernie 4.0
Baidu's Ernie 4.0 AI model could challenge ChatGPT as the world's leading large language model.
Ernie 4.0 is a large language model (LLM) developed by Baidu, claimed to be on par with GPT-4 in terms of reasoning, memory, and comprehension. It is the latest version of Ernie 3.0-Titan, which powers Ernie Bot, China's version of ChatGPT. Ernie 4.0 will be integrated into Baidu's search, map, and cloud service products.
But remember: Tightened US trade restrictions on semiconductors may hamper the widespread deployment of Ernie 4.0. Chinese tech companies are thus in danger of being cut off from the advanced chips needed to create cutting-edge AI products. It’s still unclear how the new trade restrictions will impact Ernie 4.0’s widespread deployment
Baidu may have stockpiled American AI chips, but once their stash runs out, improving Ernie 4.0 could become more expensive and challenging.
??? Today's Visual: Charting the Depths: The World of Subsea Cables
The term “cloud” may suggest that data is stored in the air (lol), but the reality is that most of the data transmission happens through cables that run along the ocean floor.
These subsea cables are responsible for about 95% of the data that crosses international borders.
In the past, telecom companies were the main players in the subsea cable market. But in recent years, tech giants such as Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon have become major investors in new cables.
As the demand for data increases, the subsea cable market is expected to grow by at least $10 billion between 2022 and 2024, driven by cloud service providers and content streaming platforms.
Subsea cables have a clear advantage over satellites in terms of data capacity and cost. According to TeleGeography, satellites only carry less than 1% of all U.S. international data.
Full resource: Submarine Cable Map
? Last Word: Supply Chain Strategy and the ....Thailand Opportunity?
Canada isn't the only nation prioritizing its supply chain security, critical minerals, or semiconductor pathways. Read about that here.
Just about any nation wrestling with new technologies will have their issues exacerbated by the U.S.-China rivalry.
Here in Thailand, the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) is planned as an extension for Tourism, Logistics, Manufacturing, and Aviation.
Some concerns that come to mind:
First, the almost byzantine process of getting clear information, despite the years of hyping up any sort of progress — progress which does exist, has realistically looked more like a trickle than a speeding bullet train of success.
Second, I am optimistic that this administration can add new momentum. The Prime Minister attended the AMCham Luncheon and outlined his vision for Thailand's future. He discussed his government's top policies, including developing foreign trade and investment, achieving sustainable economic growth, building infrastructure, and improving Thailand's status as a tourist destination.
The EEC has great potential to be a secure channel for the smooth movement of vital goods, rare supplies, and other hard-to-get commodities that future industries depend on. If we can fulfill the EEC’s vision, our allies just might make take the EEC more seriously as part of their economy's supply chain strategy.
That's our ambition at least. (and something we're working on)
-END
/Bryan Alexandros, October 25 2023
The Skylance Intelligencer newsletter examines the fringes and white spaces of global commerce, emerging technology, and executive strategy. One unconventional insight from the edge could 10x your business's growth.