Intel Report | Sep 30 | The Weekly Automotive & Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | SEP 30?2024?

What We're Reading

??? Automotive

CDK Global 's agreement to pay $100 million to resolve a class-action antitrust lawsuit has earned preliminary approval from an Illinois federal judge. Affected dealerships should start receiving notice of the settlement as early as this week and can start pursuing claims. The preliminary approval, issued Aug. 23, resolves all remaining claims alleging it colluded with dealership management system rival The Reynolds and Reynolds Company to inflate DMS prices and stifle competition. CDK, of Austin, Texas, will pay $100 million to resolve complaints from U.S. dealerships that bought Reynolds and/or CDK DMS products from Sept. 1, 2013, through Aug. 15, 2024. CDK also will pay up to $250,000 to handle court costs. As part of the settlement, CDK does not admit any wrongdoing. Dealerships should start receiving notification of the settlement this week. They can log onto the website dealershipclassDMSsettlement.com to file a claim. | Automotive News?($)

On average, workers spend nearly 27 minutes commuting each way to and from work, according to the US Census Bureau Economic Census ’ American Community Survey. Shaving just three minutes per trip off a commute three days a week can save a worker 13 hours a year, according to the new analysis. The cities with the fastest drive times either had visionary urban planning, well-run public transit programs that help ease car traffic or smaller populations on bigger roadways that made the commute less frustrating, transportation researchers and city officials say.?| The Wall Street Journal?($)

The factors making cars and homes more expensive to insure are difficult to tackle—especially all at once. Auto insurers have pointed to multiple factors such as changes in accident frequency and severity. And in general, insurers for houses, autos and businesses also have to consider what is broadly referred to as “exposure.” Higher exposure can be driven by much bigger trends such as economic growth, population shifts and increases in the values of what is being insured. | The Wall Street Journal?($)

Stellantis , an automotive colossus that owns more than a dozen brands including Chrysler, Fiat, Jeep, Peugeot and Ram, is facing challenges at seemingly every turn. The company’s sales and profit have been plummeting. Dealers stuck with parking lots filled with unsold cars are publicly criticizing Stellantis and its chief executive in unusually harsh terms. Stellantis’ stock price has fallen almost 50% from its high point in March. And the union that represents its U.S. factory workers is threatening to go on strike at several plants. The problems are raising questions about the future of Carlos Tavares, the Stellantis chief executive.?| The New York Times?($) ?

???Electric Vehicles (EVs)

For many car buyers, hybrids seem like a great compromise between gasoline and electric vehicles. Hybrids, which combine internal combustion engines and electric motors, produce less pollution and use less fuel than conventional automobiles. And, owners never need to worry about running out of battery power on a lonely highway. But while hybrids do save money for some people, that’s not always the case. And many experts and environmental groups are critical of hybrids, saying that the fuel savings are exaggerated and that they don’t cut greenhouse gas emissions as much as needed to slow global warming. Still, many car shoppers are clearly convinced of the benefits. Sales of hybrid cars in the United States were up 33% from January through July compared to the previous year, accounting for 11% of new car sales. | The New York Times?($)

Everyone knows that electric vehicles are supposed to be better for the planet than gas cars. That's the driving reason behind a global effort to transition toward batteries. But what about the harm caused by mining for battery minerals? And coal-fired power plants for the electricity to charge the cars? And battery waste? Is it really true that EVs are better? The answer is yes. But Americans are growing less convinced. | NPR

For the last four decades, lithium has beaten all comers. Lightweight and reactive, it serves as the ideal cathode component; lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are widely used in electricity grids and can be found in most of the world's electric vehicles. So effective are lithium-based cathodes that scientists hoping to make batteries better and more powerful are turning their attention to the other, long-overshadowed components of cells. Those efforts are starting to pay off.?| The Economist?($)

Charging stations for electric vehicles are essential for cleaning up the transportation sector. A new study by 美国麻省理工学院 researchers suggests they’re good for business, too. The study found that, in California, opening a charging station boosted annual spending at each nearby business by an average of about $1,500 in 2019 and about $400 between January 2021 and June 2023. The spending bump amounts to thousands of extra dollars annually for nearby businesses, with the increase particularly pronounced for businesses in underresourced areas.?| MIT News ?

????? China

The Biden administration announced a sweeping initiative to ban Chinese-developed software from internet-connected cars in the United States, justifying the move on national security grounds. The action is intended to prevent Chinese intelligence agencies from monitoring the movements of Americans or using the vehicles’ electronics as a pathway into the U.S. electric grid or other critical infrastructure.?| The New York Times?($)

A second car carrier is ready to embark as 比亚迪 looks to continue its dominant global expansion. BYD’s new vessel is the second of seven that will hit the seas over the next two years as China’s EV leader goes global. The 7,000-vehicle vessel, “BYD Hefei,” is the second car carrier the company has revealed. BYD introduced its first, “Explorer No 1,” in January. It has already completed two European trips, Spain and Germany, and also docked in Brazil.?| Electrek

Tariffs and proposed rules banning Chinese-made hardware and software won't keep China-based automakers out of the North American market indefinitely but could buy companies in the region time to become more competitive with them, industry experts said on a panel here at the Automotive News Congress on Sept. 24. "This industry here in the United States should not think that this is going to be here forever," said John Bozzella , CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation . "Then the question is, what will we do with our time?"?| Automotive News?($) ?

???Robotics & Autonomy

Elon Musk claims that Tesla ’s autonomous taxi service will be similarly priced as a bus ticket. The average daily transit commute in NYC is 13 miles, which equates to $0.34 per mile. A study from the University of Virginia , and 美国德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校 tried to estimate the cost of Tesla's autonomous offering, concluding that autonomous rides in a Tesla Model 3 would cost about $0.663 per mile. That’s about twice as much as public transit in New York City, but it is significantly cheaper than an Uber ride, which generally ranges between $1 or $2 per mile unless it is in surge pricing. | Electrek

Mercedes-Benz AG said its cars equipped with its automated driving system will be upgraded to drive autonomously at up to 59 MPH on German motorways in certain conditions. Pending certification by Germany's motor transport authority, expected at the end of 2024, sales of the DRIVE PILOT system will start from next year. The car is able to take over driving as long as another vehicle is in front of it and it has clear visibility, leaving drivers able to take their hands off the wheel for extended periods, but be expected to be able to take over within seconds.?| Reuters?($)

Self-driving cars could make personal auto insurance largely obsolete within 20 years, according to a worst-case scenario modeled by 晨星 . A more likely, moderate scenario forecasts the line could remain necessary for a few more decades, until 2060. The firm’s new report, “Insuring Autonomy: Analyzing the Implications of Self-Driving Cars for the Auto Insurance Industry,” finds that by 2044, in the most aggressive adoption scenario, most cars on the road could be automated to a level where liability shifts from driver to manufacturer.?| Carrier Management

Tesla's October 10 Robotaxi debut, "We, Robot," will showcase its future of autonomy. The Cybertruck-like vehicle, alongside Optimus robots, hints at a future without steering wheels or pedals. Heavily camouflaged prototypes have been spotted testing at the Warner Bros. lot, where the event will take place. Tesla has already started sending out invitations to select shareholders and media.?| Electrek

For most of modern history, robots that looked like us and walked like us have largely been relegated to movie and TV screens, while the robots in factories and other real-world settings have taken the less-sexy form of mechanical arms or oversize Roombas. That’s starting to change as a new crop of startups make humanoid robots a reality and promise corporate managers increased productivity and a solution to labor shortages. | Yahoo! Finance ?

??? Connectivity

Software fixes are now responsible for more than 1 in 5 automotive recalls. That's the key finding from a decade's worth of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA recall data, according to an analysis from the law firm DeMayo Law Offices. While that's a sign of growing inconvenience for drivers, the silver lining is that a software patch is usually a much quicker fix than something requiring hardware replacement. | Ars Technica

“Vehicle to everything” or V2X for short, is a wireless communication tool that allows vehicles to transmit speed, location, road conditions and other basic information. Last month, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced a national deployment plan for the technology as part of its national road safety strategy. The goal of the program is to have three-quarters of the nation’s intersections equipped with V2X technology in about 12 years. It’s the latest proposed fix to a surge in traffic fatalities on US roads. The ambitious goal is to reduce traffic deaths to zero.?| Bloomberg?($) ?

??? Aviation

In the decades since the Second World War, while nearly every other aspect of commercial aviation has been transformed, the basic aircraft design of a tube with wings has remained stubbornly unchanged.?But, by the end of the decade, a radically different shaped plane could be taking to the skies above California.?US start-up JetZero and its backers hope the new aircraft will be the future of commercial aviation and offer a way to slash carbon emissions. The eye-catching design — which borrows from the “blended wing” appearance of stealth bombers — has attracted interest from airlines on both sides of the Atlantic. | Financial Times?($)

Pilots, aviation-industry officials and regulators said spoofed Global Positioning System (GPS) signals are spreading beyond active conflict zones near Ukraine and the Middle East, confusing cockpit navigation and safety systems and taxing pilots’ attention in commercial jets carrying passengers and cargo. The attacks started affecting a large number of commercial flights about a year ago, pilots and aviation experts said. The number of flights affected daily has surged from a few dozen in February to more than 1,100 in August, according to analyses from SkAI Data Services and the University of Zurich of Applied Sciences. Modern airliners’ heavy reliance on GPS means that fake data can cascade through cockpit systems, creating glitches that last for a few minutes or an entire flight. Pilots have reported clocks resetting to earlier times, false warnings and misdirected flight paths, according to anonymized reports shared with government and industry groups.?| The Wall Street Journal?($)

To reduce emissions from flying, planes should slow down and extend flight times, according to new research conducted by the 英国剑桥大学 in the UK. In a report that sets out sustainable targets for the aviation industry, the university found that if aircraft flew 15% slower than current levels, fuel consumption would be reduced by 5–7%. The report notes that a drawback of reducing speed is “the potential negative impact on airline productivity and passenger acceptance, especially for longer flights”.?| University of Cambridge ?

???Public Transit

Transit agencies across America have 90 days to answer three urgent questions facing their systems today: how likely their workers are to be assaulted on the job, what they're doing to stop it, and whether those efforts are making a difference or creating new dangers. The Federal Transit Administration announced a first-ever general directive that will require more than 700 U.S. transit agencies to conduct a "risk assessment" on its transit vehicles and stations, and to issue a detailed, "data-driven" report on how they're monitoring and mitigating those risks.?Virtually every U.S. city with more than 200,000 residents will be affected, and they'll have just under three months to complete their reports.?| StreetsBlog USA ?

???Rail

Most of the passengers emerging from the station in Bellvitge, a working-class neighborhood outside Barcelona, have no idea just how innovative the city’s subway system is. Using technology not unlike the regenerative braking found in hybrids and electric vehicles, the trains they rode generated some of the power flowing to the EV chargers in the nearby parking lot, the lights illuminating the station, and the escalators taking them to the platforms. Every time a train rumbles to a stop, the energy generated by all that friction is converted to electricity, which is fed through inverters and distributed throughout the subway system. One-third of that powers the trains; the rest provides juice to station amenities and a growing network of EV chargers. | Grist ?

????Climate

麦肯锡 's "Global Energy Perspective 2024" is intended to serve as a fact base grounded in the best currently available data to help global stakeholders meet decarbonization goals. The report offers a detailed demand outlook for 68 sectors and 78 fuels across a 1.5° pathway, as set out in the Paris Agreement, as well as three bottom-up energy transition scenarios.?| McKinsey?($)

California greenhouse gas emissions dropped about 2.4% in 2022 — an encouraging sign that the state’s carbon footprint is decreasing once again, even as the economy rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic. The California Air Resources Board announced Friday that planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions shrank by about 9.3 million metric tons in 2022 compared with 2021 — the equivalent of removing 2.2 million gasoline-powered vehicles from the road for a year. More than half of those reductions came from the transportation sector as California drivers bought more electric vehicles and less gasoline. Also, cargo trucks that ferry goods from ports and rail yards are increasingly running on crop-based biofuels instead of conventional diesel fuel. | Los Angeles Times?($)

When pandemic stay-at-home orders caused a dramatic decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), many hoped the rise of remote work would reverse the trend of rising congestion, making way for cleaner, quieter, and more open streets. But VMT quickly bounced back from pandemic lows. Now 2024 sees new record highs in metros across the U.S. | Streetlight Data ?

???Venture Capital

A recent PitchBook analysis provides evidence that venture capital (VC) investor domain expertise does matter. VC-backed companies that received funding from a lead investor with high domain expertise were 1.2x more likely to successfully exit via an IPO or acquisition than companies that received funding from a lead investor with low domain expertise.?Domain sophistication has been especially important at the early stage when a startup is still finding product-market fit and in highly technical areas. | Pitchbook ($) ?

????Car of the Week

Our Automotive Ventures "Cars of the Week":?a 1972 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona Berlinetta. | Bring A Trailer

Have a great week,

Steve Greenfield