The Stockdale Paradox

— Admiral James Stockdale.

The Stockdale Paradox was made famous in Jim Collins’s bestselling book?From Good to Great,?and the related discipline of survival psychology is quite fitting with the last year of Covid-19 and the countless number of crises it brought along with it for both leaders and team members alike.

Many teams and organizations found themselves needing to switch from the normal state ‘peacetime’ value creation and productivity to a ‘wartime/survival mode’ in a very short period of time.

Back in April 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, I wrote: "This crisis puts to test the cumulative experience and skill set of a team and its managers. This is not the moment to rest on your laurels, but instead, a time to dig deep into your past experiences; professional or personal — and put to use skills, knowledge, or experiences that maybe you have not touched upon for a long time. Be ready to shift, pivot, and transform on a daily basis as a reaction to the change that is happening out of you and your teams’ control."

And this is exactly where Admiral Stockdale comes in.

What is the Stockdale Paradox?

Stockdale was a prisoner of war in Vietnam for seven-and-a-half years. Prior to meeting with the legendary soldier and statesman, Collins read Stockdale’s memoir and felt that it was unbearable just reading it from the comfort of his Stanford office, despite his knowledge that Stockdale’s later life was happy. Collins thought, “If it feels depressing for me, how on earth did he survive when he was actually there and?did not know the end of the story?”

When he posed that question to the admiral, Stockdale answered: “I never lost faith in the end of the story. I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

Collins asked him about the personal characteristics of prisoners who did not make it out of the camps. “The optimists,” he replied. “Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart … This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."

This formulation became known as the Stockdale Paradox. The admiral elaborated further on the concept when, at a West Point graduation, he was asked if he dwelt on the end of his imprisonment to sustain him, or if he lived day-to-day?

“I lived on a day-to-day basis. … [M]ost guys thought it was really better for everybody to be an optimist. I wasn't naturally that way; I knew too much about the politics of Asia when I got shot down. I think there was a lot of damage done by optimists; other writers from other wars share that opinion. The problem is, some people believe what professional optimists are passing out and come unglued when their predictions don't work out.”

How does it apply to us? (and why we won't have a “normal” to go back to post Covid-19)

It seems that a year into the pandemic, the vast majority of us are now pinning our hopes on some other event or day after which some version of “rescue” or "normal" will come: a vaccine, a cure, a reliable and cheap test, the acquisition of herd immunity...

But to review the brutal facts as the Admiral would have us do, none of these developments are likely in the foreseeable short term. The possibility remains that there may never be a fully effective vaccine or cure; this virus may be something that we live with and manage for years to come. Doing so will mean changing elements of our social interaction in unprecedented ways that may well lead to irrevocable social changes.

No one knows how this is going to end.

What long-term survival looks like

There is no point at which this becomes easy. Stockdale notes that success in a long-term survival situation means getting up and fighting each day. Stockdale wrote in?A Vietnam Experience: Ten Years of Reflection?that it was “the persistent practitioner of endurance who carried the day for courage. The game of physical intimidation was not won or lost in one grand showdown. The hero of us all was the plucky little guy who made them start all over every day.”

In long-term survival situations, individuals need to have an overarching purpose. This purpose does not need to be monumental and more than anything must be clear and broken down into clear and simple tasks.

A year into the pandemic what most of us need is not "happy talk" or Stockdale’s “professional optimism,” but instead a constant reiteration of what the organizational purpose is and how it is translated into our daily work.

The Takeaway

On both the individual and organizational levels, the past year has forced us all to adapt to a "new normal." Understanding it is here to stay is instrumental. Then, dig deep and see what you need to do in order to survive in the long-term. Survival is great but, search for the formula that will help you strive.

Oh, and never lose faith.