Insights: What the U.S. election could mean for the Canadian market, quarterly update, Making Waves for Autism + happy Thanksgiving!

Good reads:

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Best quote of the week:

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“You can tell you ate too much for Thanksgiving when you have to let your bathrobe out.” — Jay Leno

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Best visuals of the week:

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We’re in the homestretch for the U.S. election, and to say it’s been an interesting year thus far would be an understatement.

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Wondering what this last little lead-up might mean for the Canadian market?

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According to data from my Raymond James analysts, market volatility tends to increase as elections approach (see chart below). However, the good news is that once the election results are known, both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite tend to outperform their long-term averages over the following 12 months, regardless of which party wins.

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One of the main reasons that the markets tend to move on so quickly after an election is because long-term performance hinges on policies, not election results.

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Here is another great chart from my Raymond James analysts. The S&P/TSX Composite performance is overlaid with the political landscape since 1980, highlighting the primary causes of major market corrections.

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It reveals that major market corrections are rarely tied directly to election outcomes, with index performance typically impacted by broader factors such as domestic and global economic conditions, commodity prices, and external disruptions, which build up over time and are definitely less predictable than election dates.

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If you’d like a copy of the full report, send me an email.

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You’re Invited: Quarterly Market Update – U.S. Election Edition

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Join Raymond James’ Neil Linsdell, Head of Investment Strategy, Ed Mills, Managing Director, Washington Policy, Eugenio Aleman, Chief Economist, and Tavis McCourt, Institutional Equity Strategist, for a quarterly update on financial markets and insights into what to expect in the market with the upcoming U.S. election.

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Date: October 23, 2024

Time: 10am-11am PT/11am-12pm MT/1-2pm ET

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Contact me for a registration link: [email protected]

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Making Waves for Autism:

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As many of you know, I created an event earlier this year called Making Waves for Autism , and it raised almost $46,000. All of the funds were directed to Autism Canada specifically to help them launch their Community Assistance Program (CAP).

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I'm really excited to announce that CAP is now officially up and running!

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Why is this such amazing news? Well, it can take upwards of 4 years to get an autism diagnosis in Canada, and to get one via private diagnosis is really cost prohibitive for a lot of families. CAP essentially helps bridge this gap by providing vital subsidies so individuals and families can get the care they need sooner.

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This will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the Autistic Community and is SO very exciting. Check out the Autism Canada website for more details.

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In the meantime, keep an eye open for news on my 2025 Making Waves of Autism fundraiser. Lots of good things in the works!

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Beyond the markets:

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In honour of the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend, I thought I’d share some fun facts about it:

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• Quebec calls Thanksgiving "Action de grace."

• We've celebrated Thanksgiving in Canada for 145 years, starting on November 6, 1879.
• Prior to 1957, Canada celebrated Thanksgiving on the third Monday of October. It officially moved to the second Monday of October via an announcement on January 31, 1957, by the Governor General of Canada.
• The United States celebrates their Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday in November and ours is in October, as it gets colder earlier and therefore, our harvest season is earlier.
• It was originally celebrated as a day of giving thanks for the blessing of the harvest and of the preceding year.
• With the exception of the Atlantic provinces of Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia,?Thanksgiving is now a statutory holiday in most jurisdictions of Canada.?
• The cornucopia, also known as the horn of plenty, represents abundance and nourishment. It is particularly associated with the Thanksgiving holiday in North America.
• During Thanksgiving 2020, 2.5 million whole turkeys were purchased by Canadians, equal to 36% of all whole turkeys that were sold over the year.
• Turkey consumption can cause tiredness due to its tryptophan, a naturally occurring amino acid used by the human body to create serotonin, which promotes slow-wave sleep.
• The breaking of the wishbone tradition originated when the ancient Romans pulled apart chicken bones looking for good luck. The English adopted it in the 16th century and then In the New World, Pilgrims played tug-of-war with wild turkey bones. The actual “wishbone” term emerged in the 1800’s.

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Source: Modern Mississauga

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Thanks for reading, and I wish everyone a wonderful Thanksgiving long weekend!

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Cheers,

Kim

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Kim Inglis, BCom, CIM, PFP, FCSI, RIAC

Senior Portfolio Manager

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T: 416.777.6417 (Toronto)

T: 604.654.1160 (Vancouver)

T: 250.979.1803 (Kelowna)

TF: 1.877.363.1024

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www.inglisprivateinvestmentcounsel.com

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The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the Financial Advisor Kim Inglis, BCom, CIM, PFP, FCSI, CAFA and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. (“RJL”) or Raymond James (USA) Ltd. (“RJLU”).? Statistics, factual data and other information presented are from sources, believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is furnished on the basis and understanding that Raymond James Ltd. and Raymond James (USA) Ltd. is to be under no liability whatsoever in respect thereof. It is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Raymond James Ltd. and Raymond James (USA) Ltd. financial advisors may only transact business in provinces and/or states where they are registered. Follow-up and individualized responses involving either the effecting of or attempting to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made to persons in provinces or states where the financial advisor is not registered. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. is a member of FINRA /SIPC . Raymond James (USA) Ltd. (RJLU) and advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdictions for which they are properly registered. This provides links to other Internet sites for the convenience of users. Raymond James Ltd. is not responsible for the availability or content of these external sites, nor does Raymond James Ltd endorse, warrant or guarantee the products, services or information described or offered at these other Internet sites. Users cannot assume that the external sites will abide by the same privacy policy which Raymond James Ltd adheres to.