Insights: U.S. election and the markets, behavioural biases, Air Canada strike + Friday the 13th

Good reads:

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·???????? Weekly Investment Strategy

·???????? 5 mistakes people often make when buying a new car

·???????? Canada slips in global retirement index but ranks well above US

·???????? Worried about an Air Canada pilot strike? Be careful about cancelling or rebooking your flights

·???????? Ranked: Revenue of Top Sports Teams in North America, by League

·???????? How did this gem of art and architecture land in Gander, N.L.?

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Best quote of the week:

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“Obsolescence is the very hallmark of progress.” – Henry Ford II

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Best visuals of the week:

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Not surprisingly, there have been plenty of questions lately about the U.S. election, particularly this week following the debate. Many people have been wondering whether the results of the election will impact investment portfolios.

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Below are some great visuals from Russell Investments that help answer this.

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The first visual shows historical returns during past election years. Looking back over the last 12 election years, a portfolio consisting of 60% U.S. stocks and 40% U.S. bonds:

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• Finished in positive territory 11 times
• Generated an average return of 9.8%, and
• Delivered only one negative outcome, which was driven by the bursting of the historic housing bubble

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So, the short answer is that Presidential elections haven’t tended to impact investors in election years.? But what about a longer time frame?

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Looking out further, investing in the periods following election years has also generally worked out well for investors. The chart below shows how different scenarios impacted returns.? It compares those who stayed invested the whole time, those who went to cash for the first 6 months after an election, and those who got scared off completely and stayed in cash the entire time.

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The clear winner was the one who stayed invested.? The primary reason is that political parties don’t tend to drive market returns.? Rather, it’s more connected to economic cycles than who is sitting in the Oval Office.

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Best soundbites of the week

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If you happen to be one of the unfortunate travelers with Air Canada bookings over the next little while and you’re wondering what to do, below is some good food for thought from The Globe and Mail.

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Although Air Canada has provided a few rebooking and credit offers, depending on the ticket purchased, you might want to hold off on doing that until there is an actual strike because doing so could mean forfeiture of travel insurance coverage and rights to refunds or compensation under air passenger protection rules.

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There’s a lot more detail in the article though, so if you’re impacted by the potential strike then it’s well worth a full read.

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“…no insurer will reimburse passengers for extra costs incurred because they rearranged their travel plans on their own, he added. Travelers must wait until their flights are cancelled to be eligible for coverage, he said. The same holds for any trip interruption and cancellation coverage Canadians might get through their credit card insurance, said Barry Choi, a personal finance and travel expert.

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Cancelling or rebooking flights on your own will also make you ineligible for protections afforded to consumers under air passenger protection rules in case of travel disruptions[…] “They want passengers to cancel first because then they can avoid paying passengers compensation,” he said.

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On the other hand, if a carrier cancels a flight during a strike, passengers would be entitled to choose between two options under Canada’s Air Passenger Protection Regulations, according to Mr. Lukacs. If they want to continue with their travel plans, they have a right to a free rebooking, including on flights operated by other airlines, or they can opt for a refund. Consumers who chose the latter and have already started their trip are also entitled to a flight home if the disruption has compromised the purpose of their travel.”

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You’re Invited: Life Stages and Events – Where Insurance is a Strategic Wealth Solution

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Join us for an insightful webinar where our expert panel will guide you through key strategies to protect and grow your wealth at different life stages and events.

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Consider:

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• A couple with a young family.
• Individuals and couples who have saved, invested, and made smart decisions throughout their lifetime, how do they maximize sharing their legacies with their intended beneficiaries?
• Incorporated business owners and professionals, with the change in income tax rates, how corporate owned insurance can help minimize and assist in transferring the wealth value in a tax-efficient manner.

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Every day, we work with Canadians who are interested in learning how insurance is a solution of choice when considering their wealth at every life stage and event.

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Date: September 18, 2024

Time: 10am PT / 1pm ET

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Contact me directly for a registration link.

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In case you missed it:

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In my latest TV interview, I share some of the most common behavioural biases faced by investors and some strategies to overcome them. Many thanks to Jenna Dagenhart and Asset TV Canada for the great chat.? You can watch the full interview here:

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Beyond the markets:

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Today is Friday the 13th, so here are some interesting facts about the day:

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• Some believe the superstition stems from the Biblical Last Supper, in which the unlucky 13th guest, Judas, betrays Jesus.
• Another Biblical belief is that Cain killed his brother, Abel, on Friday the 13th.
• More than 100 of the Knights Templar are also believed to have been tortured and later killed by King Philip IV of France on Friday, Oct. 13, 1307.
• Friday the 13th can come in threes: all years will have at least one Friday the 13th and as many as three Friday the 13ths in any given calendar year.?
• If you have triskaidekaphobia, or fear of the number 13, you likely also have araskavedekatriaphobia — fear of Friday the 13th. It is estimated that 17 to 21 million people suffer from triskaidekaphobia.
• Some numerologists believe the number 13 is considered unlucky because of its relation to the number 12. Numerologists consider 12 a "complete" number: 12 months in a year, 12 apostles, 12 tribes of Israel, 12 labors of Hercules, 12 gods of Olympus, 12 hours on a clock.
• According to National Geographic, more than 80 percent of high-rise buildings avoid having a 13th floor.
• The number 13 is considered lucky by some. For pagans, it represents the number of full moons in a year.
• Director Alfred Hitchcock was born on Friday the 13th. Perhaps that explains his obsession with psychological thrillers?

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Source: NBC

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Thanks for reading, and I wish everyone a wonderful weekend!

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Cheers,

Kim

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Kim Inglis, BCom, CIM, PFP, FCSI, RIAC

Senior Portfolio Manager

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T: 416.777.6417 (Toronto)

T: 604.654.1160 (Vancouver)

T: 250.979.1803 (Kelowna)

TF: 1.877.363.1024

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www.inglisprivateinvestmentcounsel.com

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The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the Financial Advisor Kim Inglis, BCom, CIM, PFP, FCSI, CAFA and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. (“RJL”) or Raymond James (USA) Ltd. (“RJLU”).? Statistics, factual data and other information presented are from sources, believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is furnished on the basis and understanding that Raymond James Ltd. and Raymond James (USA) Ltd. is to be under no liability whatsoever in respect thereof. It is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Raymond James Ltd. and Raymond James (USA) Ltd. financial advisors may only transact business in provinces and/or states where they are registered. Follow-up and individualized responses involving either the effecting of or attempting to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made to persons in provinces or states where the financial advisor is not registered. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. is a member of FINRA/SIPC. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. (RJLU) and advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdictions for which they are properly registered. This provides links to other Internet sites for the convenience of users. Raymond James Ltd. is not responsible for the availability or content of these external sites, nor does Raymond James Ltd endorse, warrant or guarantee the products, services or information described or offered at these other Internet sites. Users cannot assume that the external sites will abide by the same privacy policy which Raymond James Ltd adheres to.