Insights from the trail - 21/11/22

In markets last week:

There were more hawkish comments from Fed member Bullard. He called for “minimum” rates of 5% to 5.25% in the US. Although we note he wont be a voting member next year, so perhaps he is trying to go out with a bang! Meanwhile jobless claims in the US show their labour market is still running hot.

The UK had another go at their budget. This one was more fiscally responsible. After the UK CPI print came in at 11.1% in October, the most in 41 years.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil stockpiles in developed nations have sunk to their lowest levels since 2004, as sanctions on Russian exports are set to take effect from December 5.

And this week the world's population reached 8 billion people! The UN also reported that life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of 9 years from 1990. But average fertility has dropped from 5 births per women in 1950, to 2.3 today.

Source: Bloomberg

Three other things that got the team talking this week:

1.?Rate watch…

Nearly 100% of new mortgage loans are on variable rates in Australia. This compares to ~55% last year. And almost 60% of fixed rate mortgages will reset by the end of 2023.

Source: ABS, Macquarie Macro Strategy

Source: APRA, RBA,?Macquarie Macro Strategy

2. Beer is back…

United Malt Group gave an update this week. Detailing how beer is in, and seltzers are apparently out. According to Nielson data, US beer sales were up 7.8% y/y in the 4 weeks to 5 November. And up over 13% versus the same period in 2019. While seltzer sales were down 8% y/y in the 4 weeks to 5 November. Drink responsibly.

Source: NielsenIQ, UBS analysis

3. It’s coming home…

Whether it's onshoring, nearshoring or reshoring, companies are bringing employees back in droves.?

Source: Bofa Global Research

For more Insights from the trail, visit www.firetrail.com

Have a great week!