Insight of the Week: The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the AI Hype Cycle

By Kerry Robinson

Gartner recently published their 'hype cycle' for AI, and right there at the 'peak of inflated expectations' is Generative AI.

Next up, in Gartner's model, is the 'Trough of Disillusionment', when interest and adoption wanes as the limitations and challenges of the technology become more clear after the initial hype.

Not to be outdone, within 7 days of Gartner's hype-cycle being published, Gary Marcus was hailing the Rise and Fall of ChatGPT.

I've been a fan of Marcus' writing in the past, but I disagree with almost every point in his email.

Yes, half of the companies surveyed by S&P Global that had an AI project in production are still in pilot or proof-of-concept stage. But seventy percent are using AI in some form, in production.

Yes, if prompted badly, you can get a large language model to say stupid stuff. But the point of these pilots and proofs of concept is to figure out how to harness this Electricity for Knowledge work as I explained recently.

I hope you're one of the 70% of companies with an AI project in full production, pilot or POC.

If you are, just know that the trough of disillusionment is coming, and your projects are not immune. Here's a cheat sheet to protect your projects:

• Set clear expectations: Just because ChatGPT can re-write a Shakespeare play in Pirate-speak doesn't mean it can do anything and everything your customer service department would rather not put bums on seats for!
• Focus on tangible value: Calls avoided. AHT reduced. Revenue retained. People always say they want a better experience, but they're rarely willing to pay for it unless there's measurable financial benefits attached.
• Plan to iterate: Make sure stakeholders know the first deployment will be limited, and performance below par. Make sure you and your stakeholders value the data and learnings that will flow from disappointing first attempts.

If you don't already have an AI project in production, don't get left behind. Check out my YouTube playlist on Getting started with Generative AI.

And of course, if you’re in any doubt about whether we’re in an AI hype cycle or not, the answer is 42.

Kerry Robinson?is an Oxford physicist with a Master's in Artificial Intelligence. Kerry is a technologist, scientist, and lover of data with over 20 years of experience in conversational AI. He combines business, customer experience, and technical expertise to deliver IVR, voice, and chatbot strategy and keep Waterfield Tech buzzing.

Subscribe to Kerry's Weekly AI Insights