Innovation Optimism despite Technology Pessimism
Lately, I've been having many conversations about innovation with my peers; you know who you are! A commonality in these discussions is the perceptions of optimism versus pessimism related to emerging technology. So, if you have 5 minutes or less, let me key the rest of you in on my perspective and share some links to works that have helped shape my vision for innovation.
Since the Industrial Revolution, the debate over technology's impact has raged. Optimism, as seen in Edward Bellamy's novel "Looking Backward" (1888), is debated in William Morris's "News from Nowhere" (1890) in how technology may or may not result in a utopia. In a modern comparison, Andreessen Horowitz "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" (2023) envisions a future shaped by innovation. Conversely, Robert J. Gordon's "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?" (2000) paints a pessimistic picture of stagnant growth. But what does history show us? Is embracing optimism while acknowledging concern a seed for unlocking positive change or the catalyst for human degradation?
Some of the world's greatest innovators, like Einstein, debated optimism and pessimism. He quipped, "I'd rather be an optimist and a fool than a pessimist and right." While concerns in Maryanne Wolfe's "Reader, Come Home" (2019) about the effect of digital screens on literacy are quite valid, there is evidence that technology can create new avenues for learning. Just as the printing press didn't erase oral storytelling, these new technologies are unlocking new learning pathways.
However, we must acknowledge a concept I first read about in Max Brockman's "Future Science: Essays from the Cutting Edge"(2011). One of the essays in this book explores loss aversion and our deeply ingrained fear of losing things we perceive as valuable. This trait fuels our pessimism towards change and hampers our willingness for progress.
Technology clearly impacts our biology, as demonstrated by the effects on a child's attention span when exposed to hypercontent. It can impact prosperity, impacting a family's ability to provide for themselves. Are we gaining a net positive or a net loss from this change? How do we negate the loss and preserve the benefit? You can start to identify the loss aversion perception in these questions. Is our attention span reduced, or is it refocused? Could a new perspective on this change reveal a benefit?
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Unlike any other generation, we live in a vastly interconnected world with complex global issues. Is it better to have deep knowledge of one problem while remaining blind to more significant systemic issues, or is it better to have a broader understanding of the more significant systemic issues? Which will allow us to tackle global challenges like climate change and poverty? Is how our biology reacts to technology due to the globalization of our awareness?
By stepping outside our personal experiences, we can overcome loss aversion and embrace a broader perspective. Recognizing this bias opens the door to a more nuanced evaluation of innovation's impact and promotes a perspective that meets the world at its doorstep.
Let's not be pessimists, clinging to the familiar. Let's be informed optimists, acknowledging risks while embracing the potential for technology and solving problems that propel humanity forward.
Share your perspective, challenge my assumptions, and let's discuss how AI and Spatial computing impact our future.
#innovation #optimism #technology #future #futurism #futurist #lossaversion #pessimism #venturecapital
Design Research and Strategy Leader, Emerging Products | Berkeley Adjunct | Keynote Speaker
9 个月To your questions about deep vs broad knowledge, I don't think it's either/or. I'd argue that we need more interdisciplinary conversations about tech innovation, not just amongst "the usual suspects" (e.g., designers, PMs, engineers, etc), but also people from other disciplines like economics, politics, and civil society. As I write this, I think about the richness of conversation I'd have sitting down, say, with an economist, cultural anthropologist and a teacher, to discuss the future of ubiquitous computing. These types of conversations broaden our understanding of drivers that form the context in which our technology innovations sit, which we could synthesize and feed back into our innovation process. The other thought that comes to mind is, how much of this pessimism is a Western phenomenon? I'd be curious to hear from entrepreneurs in Lagos, a major and growing start-up hub, or consumers in Korea, where it's not unusual to see robots making your coffee or delivering your food. My experience with the latter was that consumer sentiment was often less "robots are out to get us" but "robots are here to help us".