Innovation Beyond the Horizon.

Innovation is not about foretelling the future. It is about designing, planning, and making it happen. Just short of 80 days of reaching the Horizon 2020... ?Have all of us done our homework? ?Have we satisfied our own expectations? ?Met our self-fulfilling prophecies? or ... have we procrastinated and cheated to ourselves manipulating KPI′s to make targets and goals meet our endeavors -instead of the other way round?

Horizon 2020 is at hand reach, approaching fast -with some warning signals- H2020 was a distant aspirational, -somehow utopian or dystopian depending whom you ask- when I enrolled on Innovation teams back in 2006. Many projects, budgets, envisioning frameworks were named after this round figure. Actually, back-casting a little bit further, 2019 -nowadays- is the time when the Blade runner ( Riddley Scott1982) would happen and the cop Deckard -played by a juvenile Harrison Ford- was chasing "Replicants" in the chaos of flying vehicles of an ever raining LA(*). Having reached the former horizon, last year's release of the successful flick -ups! I almost wrote "blockbuster" so outdated!- has pushed the action of the next generation of Blade runner to 2045 in a dusty desertic ultra-dry future.

So now, upon arriving in 2020, how about setting up a new one Horizon 2030? Too close? The SDG′s may well serve as Polaris -the northern star - to align our heading towards sustainability. Or, even better, Innovability, the hybrid mash-up between Innovation and Sustainability that some brands are framing in the strategy. I personally love the concept since sustainability is a pact of the present with the future.. and hence, Innovation, either is sustainable, or it is not worthy to be labeled as innovation. Breakthrough project, Volans, or Monings 4 , just to name a few of the Nonprofits, Think Tanks, or other initiatives that are working on the exponential Technologies as part of the solution ... and not the problem and meet the targets of the 2030 agenda. We better make it right this time. The next generation, embodied in Greta Thunberg is taking note of it.

A Zen approach is what it takes. A well-balanced dose of Asian philosophy without the burdens of populist driven short term decisions.

or .. How about 2040? sounds too far away? Who is going to be accountable for it? Which Government or administration is going to be willing to bet on such a long shot -a moonshot beyond polls, elections, and public opinion. It will be like planting a tree -or a whole forest - to be harvested for the benefit of our grandchildren... Sounds too much "ZEN"? Maybe that's is what it takes. A well-balanced dose of Asian philosophy without the burdens of populist -a serendipitous typo (or a subconscious bias) wrote "Populshit" in my screen- driven short term decisions. Think of 10x instead of 10%. Utopia? Where can we find that place where a government is willing to invest, allocate the resources, design and start building their 2040 vision? A small village in the Imperium where they have a magical concoction...? Not quite, think of that Shangri-la of entrepreneurship and Innovation, that this year has celebrated the 200th anniversary of its foundation, and the 54th of is independence... think of the Smart Nation. Think of Singapore-

Last summer I (deeply) enjoyed the opportunity of going back to college. To a very special one, the NUS -National University of Singapore- a leading educational global institution, ranking TOP in most studies, with a visionary spirit of Innovation and Enterprise. Wandering around its immaculate campus, I discovered the CREATE - Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise- quite a challenge to condense so many concepts in just a single meaningful acronym-. Please feel free to browse the above link to explore and discover the serendipitous offering of events, conferences, researches happening in its 67,000 square meters. Connecting with the topic of this post, I found a group-seminar design-thinking and gathering insights through a major call to social stakeholders to design the Land Transport Master Plan 2040. From an innovation practitioner′, like myself, point of view, it is an actual best practice worth of in-depth analysis, applying the most sophisticated methodologies from the lab to the field. I know no other place in the world where the whole ecosystem -private enterprises, public bodies, academia, and civil constituents- works together joining efforts, to design, plan, finance, and execute their future, their ideal dream of city considering economical, technological, demographics, social, environmental issues in a holistic data-driven fashion. The Garden-with-a-city-inside concept (the post evolution of the garden city and city with gardens former visions) include people carrying airborne drones, fully solar power zero-carbon people moving solutions, from sharing solutions to a wide range of individual/personal transport devices designed for an aging society that definitely is not getting any younger -like ours- not leaving anyone behind.

No other place in the world where the whole ecosystem -private enterprises, public bodies, academia, and civil constituents- works together joining efforts, to design, plan, finance, and execute their future.

In a few weeks, I will be going back to #SmartNation. Another discovery journey of Innovation revisited series. So much to explore, learn, discover, understand and share. I have promised my self to schedule regular trips to Singapore till 2040 -and if health and wealth permit it beyond that horizon too- to verify how this vision is deployed. The #MakingOff of a future perfect. Is it not quite a remarkable thing worth to witness?

2020, 2030, 2040, 2045... How close is "too near"? How "far is too far"? Prospective, speculative design , design fiction work comfortably in the 10 years range; On one hand 5 years projects is definitely too close and any strategic plan covers that, and you may get there before even deploying the first powerpoint; And, on the other hand, 50 years is arguably too far away: nobody is going to remember your forecast, and anything is possible is such horizon.

Recalling some of the Hans Roslings′s Factfulness -very recommendable reading to understand the world we live in- current Egypt data on life expectancy at birth, sanitation, child mortality... are comparable than the one's of Sweden in the 60′s, 50 years ago. always keep in mind the Amara′s Law: We overestimate the impact of technology in the short term (2 years) but are unable to understand its impact on the 10 years term. Think about it... think about your life ten years ago without the smartphone, nor Uber, nor AirBNB, nor Netflix, nor GoogleMaps, nor GoPro, nor WeWork, nor Waymo, nor 3d Print, nor....

How to manage horizons on Innovation? A practical tool to do so is the Innovation Horizons Model: H1-H2-H3 it helps to allocate resources and set up priorities. Horizon 1:  Identify the current business model, products and services that represent the core business. Horizon 1 innovations are typically incremental improvements to current products, services, and business models, but that lay the foundation for future growth opportunities; Horizon 2: aka Transition or Bridging stage, which focuses on resolving the discrepancies between the current (Horizon 1) and ideal state (Horizon 3). During this stage, the business must evaluate which potential innovations and business models will perpetuate the status quo and which will bring the organization closer to the idealized state. Focused on learning. Horizon 3: includes the idealized or disruptive innovations and opportunities that the organization desires for the long-term and includes future-focused products, services, or business models that may not yet be feasible, but represent a desirable future-state for the business.

(*1) Please allow me this tribute to Rutger Hauer, the actor thal impersonated Roy Batty one of the replicants, and who passed away in 2019 leaving us this magnificent moment of improvisation. "I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannh?user Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die." And so have I.