The inherent risk of certainty

This week I met with a leader who has been driving a pivotal transformation for his organization… and he’s been at it for years.

“I don’t understand why we’re not there yet,” he said. “I know what needs to happen. I’ve been crystal clear about it. We’ve made the right hires. Everyone understands the vision. But we haven’t moved forward like we should have. It feels like I’m failing.”

I asked him about how this transformation has impacted the daily operations of his business. Are they connected? Have systems and structures been designed to support the transformation? Or is the business running as it always has, with the transformation relegated to the sidelines? And importantly: Are leaders making decisions that serve the transformational vision… or the quarterly earnings?

Most of the time, one decision can’t do both.

To be clear, the two aren’t actually at odds. We can (and are even?more likely to) be highly profitable while working toward a purposeful vision. But the logic doesn’t go the other way—focusing first and foremost on delivering short-term results will never lead to transformational change.

This week

Consider a meaningful change you’re working toward. Is there a tension between certainty and vision? Between short-term results and long-term potential?

This tension is not a problem (it’s more of a given!) but it is worth taking a good at. You might ask yourself:

• What do I feel a need to be certain of??(e.g. financial security; a sense of control)
• Is there a fear or worry (or other emotion) that this certainty is holding at bay??(e.g. fear of failure; worry about the unknown; anxiety about losing my job)
• What choices am I making to attain this certainty in the short-term??(e.g. prioritizing growth at all costs; putting pressure on people to deliver more, not better)
• How might these choices be working against the change I seek? Are they aligned or at odds with my vision of the future??(e.g. increased productivity looks great on paper, but doesn’t leave room for innovation, and never lasts long enough to generate resources to reinvest in the business transformation)
• What is a new choice I can make here that is more aligned with the change I want to see??(e.g. adjust KPIs to reflect new priorities; intentionally retire old metrics and processes that don’t support the transformation; forecast in years, not months)

A bit of neuroscience can help here too. First, we can remember our innate?negativity bias, which is designed to keep us safe by focusing our attention on what’s wrong—or what could go wrong—but tends to limit our imagination to worst-case scenarios.

Second, we can keep in mind the fact that our reactive brain cannot factor into our decision making information we don’t yet have:

“(There is a) remarkable asymmetry between the ways our mind treats information that is currently available and information we do not have. An essential design feature of the associative machine is that it represents only activated ideas. Information that is not retrieved (even unconsciously) from memory might as well not exist. System 1 excels at constructing the best possible story that incorporates ideas currently activated, but it does not (cannot) allow for information it does not have."

— Daniel Kahneman,?Thinking Fast and Slow

In any visionary transformation, we are creating a future we have not yet seen. That doesn’t make it impossible—it’s every bit as possible as the reality we’re living right now. It just requires new choices and offers little certainty.

But honestly, what has certainty done for you lately?

In the comments:?What is your relationship to certainty? How might it have shifted over the past two years? Is it helping or hurting your leadership right now?