Infratech: Before Skynet

1. Before Skynet

A lot of the discussion around Infratech is centred on the Internet of Things.

The central idea is that 'connected infrastructure' will be able to (unsurprisingly) connect to other infrastructure or devices and exchange data over the internet. This exchage of data will enable the detection and rectification of faults; will facilitate dynamic traffic management based on actual traffic flows; will result in trains and buses that are responsive to demand and will result in buildings that optimise their energy usage in real time.

Some of these developments are upon us, others are further away.

For most assets there will be interim steps before skynet takes control. This is not surpising when you consider the variety and average age (and useful life) of infrastruture assets to which emerging technologies could usefully apply.

(We're also already behind the scheduled date when the machines take control according to the Terminator movies, but we can just add this to the 'infrastructure deficit' bucket)

2. Context

Most cities are old.

In many cases, this gives rise to amazing cultural assets (think: Notre Dame, the Taj Mahal and the Blue Mosque). In most cases, it presents challenges. Most cities were designed for smaller populations, with different needs and use patterns. With increasing urbanisation (68% of the world's population expected to live in an urban environment by 2050 according to the United Nations) and an ageing population with increasing expectations around quality of life and access to services, the pressure on most cities is immense (see Propelling City Growth for commentary on these impacts).

More infrastructure is not the answer. Where do another three hospitals or ten schools go? Who will be driving on the new road in 60 years time (think of how far road transport has come since 1959)? Can we do this better or reduce the need?

We need to improve efficiency or change behaviours, or both. Infratech provides opportunties to do both.

• Improve efficiency through reduced downtime and through real time adjustment to usage and needs; and
• change behaviour by quantifying demand and associated costs (such as congestion).

3. Interim steps

Change doesn't require a wholesale shift from analogue, bricks-and-motar infrastructure to connected, self-executing, skynet-controlled systems. Improving the data we are collecting is a great start. We can act on that data manually while infrastructure is retrofitted, replaced and enhanced and while enabling infrastructure (such as 5G) is rolled out.

I won't repeat my previous general commentary around how we can approach improving efficiency or changing behaviours (see Doing more with Less). But I will hightlight that health spending as an area requiring behavioural change.

We are blessed with an amazing publicly funded health system. But that funding model muddles the price signalling, making behavioural change difficult. Health funding currently accounts for 27% of tax revenue and that number is increasing. Given that over their useful life hospitals cost more to run than to build, additional tertiary hospital infrastructure is not the answer (see previous commentary on Reducing Demand on Hospitals). 

It's not all downside protection. Understanding usage patterns presents opportunities to use assets more efficiently and effectively - like making better use of classrooms and school facilities outside school hours (see Unlocking Value for more detail) or supporting more sophisticated road funding models (see Road User Charging for more detail). It also allows us to see what's missing and what matters.

3. Evolution or revolution?

Access to improved data should reduce the variability and subjectivity of government business cases. However, the ability to determine whether optimisation of current user behaviour or behavioural change is the appropriate response to the data will remain critically important. Evolution or revolution?

An important part of the feedback loop will be comparing the data from completed projects against that originally predicted in their business case. A discipline that hasn't been applied uniformly in the past. Understanding the difference between expectation and reality will improve decision making and improve accountability.

It may also help dispel a little of the confusion around the benefits flowing from different 'classifications' - economic, social, community, core-plus (See Infrastructure Classifications for more on this).

As we increase the amount of 'connected infrastructure', security concerns will increasingly come to the fore. The Australian Government has shown foresight in establishing the Critical Infrastructure Centre which will be able to assess and advise on best practice around these issues. We are right to be cautious. We also shouldn't allow the potential downside of Skynet prevent us utilising technology to obtain more meaningul data or more quickly assess and react to situations.

A relatively risk free example is the results that have been achieved by using drone to carry out maintenance inspections and in firefighting. As most assets cost more to maintain and operate over their useful life than to build, such advances can have significant whole-of-life impacts.

It makes sense to work as efficiently as we can with the best information we can. Infratech has a role in enabling us to do so.