Infrastructure based on bicycles

A shift to a green alternative

Bicycles offer an alternative to cars and fossil-fuel transport, especially in cities. Infrastructure is essential for supporting safe and abundant bicycle use, thereby curbing emissions.

2.56 - 6.65 Giga tons CO2 equivalent Reduced / sequestered (2020 - 2050)

$ - 7.54 - -2.66 Trillion $US NET first cost (To implement solution)

$ 0.83 - 2.37 Trillion $US Lifetime NET Operational savings

IMPACT:?

In 2018, just under 3 percent of urban trips around the world were completed by bicycle. In some cities, bicycle mode share is over 30 percent. We assume a rise to almost 4-8 percent of urban trips globally by 2050, displacing 3.4–6.1 trillion passenger-km traveled by conventional modes of transportation and avoiding 2.6–6.6 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions. By building bike infrastructure rather than roads, municipal governments and taxpayers can realize $2.7-$7.5 trillion in construction savings and $827-$2,400 billion in lifetime operating savings.

Definition : the increased installation of bicycle paths to encourage more bicycle usage in urban environments. This solution replaces the use of motorized road vehicle infrastructure (i.e. more lanes for cars and buses).

In 2018, just under 3 percent of urban mobility around the world was completed by bicycle, with some places, like the Netherlands, having over 30 percent of trips done by bike. In the European Union (EU), where over 7 percent of urban trips are completed by bicycle, the net economic benefits of bicycle infrastructure improvements have been estimated to be as high as €513 billion annually. This accounts for reduced costs associated with health expenditures, congestion, fuel consumption, air pollution, and more. Research has shown that bicycle infrastructure has a significant effect on the mode of travel chosen in urban environments, most notably through the provision of separate cycling facilities along heavily traveled roads and intersections, and through traffic calming in residential neighborhoods.

This analysis investigates the greenhouse gas and direct financial impacts of an increase in urban bicycle ridership through expanded implementation of bicycle infrastructure.

Methodology

Total Addressable Market The total addressable market for?bicycle infrastructure?is defined as the total projected passenger-kilometers traveled in urban environments from 2020-2050. Implementation was assumed to be in kilometers of lanes (bicycle or car/bus/other) installed, and we assumed a fixed usage of each lane-kilometer installed, with one bicycle lane-kilometer generating 5.2 million bicycle passenger-kilometers annually.

Adoption Scenarios There is limited data on existing global bicycle adoption in the literature. To determine the 2018 global adoption of 898 billion passenger-kilometers, data were used from a 2015 collaborative study on cycling by the Institute for Transport and Development Policy (ITDP) and University of California-Davis (UCD) which included projections.

Impacts of increased adoption of?bicycle infrastructure?from 2020-2050 were generated based on two growth scenarios, which were assessed in comparison to a?Reference?Scenario where the solution’s market share was fixed at the current levels.

• Scenario 1: This case is aligned with the projected data from the global ITDP/UCD study, reflecting a reasonable high-adoption pathway.
• Scenario 2: Here the projections from sources for each Drawdown region were used, and expanded upon with assumptions of 30 percent growth per ten-year period. This scenario was based on a total of 31 adoption estimates from 8 sources. Estimates were calculated for each region, summed to determine a global value, and then interpolated back to the estimated current adoption.

Emissions Model Emissions were calculated based on fuel use, but as we considered some electric modes in the two scenarios (i.e. electric cars and buses), we also included some electricity emissions. Data for this came from the US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, the ITDP, and the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for emissions factors.

Financial Model The first costs of?bicycle infrastructure?adoption were estimated from 29 different lane installation cost?data points, collected from 17 sources. Operating costs were taken as the maintenance costs for road and bicycle lanes, and were much lower for bicycle lanes as the wear and tear from bicycles is lower than that from cars and buses.

Integration Bicycle Infrastructure?is considered a high-priority solution, so its adoption was not limited in the integration process.

Results

Should global ridership increase to 3.4 trillion passenger-kilometers, or 490,000 additional kilometers of bicycle lanes over that in 2018, by 2050 (as assumed in the?Scenario 1), municipalities would avoid emissions of over 2.56 billion tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent,?while providing construction savings of US$2.7 trillion and lifetime operating saving of US$827 billion.?These financial savings compare the cost of constructing new roads and lanes for increased light-duty vehicle traffic to the cost of remodeling or renovating roads to accommodate and encourage bicycle ridership. In the?Scenario 2, almost 1 million additional lane-kilometers installed (i.e. to 6 trillion passenger-kilometers of ridership) would result in 6.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions avoided.

Additional benefits of cycling include improved health and lower health care expenses,?and an increase in the uptake of public transport by making more public transport stops accessible by bicycle. These benefits are of great value, and are not included in our analysis. The expansion of bicycle infrastructure and the rates of adoption are affected by many factors: besides the obvious ones like weather, type of bike lane, and geography of the city, other attributes of the city and its residents play important roles. All of these attributes are beyond the scope of this report. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that the benefits we can measure are large when there is significant expansion in bike infrastructure.

Solution Summary

Bicycles are on the rise as cities attempt to untangle traffic and unclog skies, urban dwellers seek affordable transportation, and diseases of inactivity and billowing greenhouse gases become impossible to ignore. Infrastructure is essential for supporting safe, pleasant, and abundant bicycle use, and includes:

• Networks of well-lit, tree-lined bike lanes or paths—the more direct, level, and interconnected the better.
• Well-designed intersections, roundabouts, and points of access, where bicycles and cars meet.
• Access to public transport, secure bike parking, city bike-share programs, and workplace showers.

In the places where cycling thrives, programs and policies complement physical infrastructure. Educational initiatives target cyclists and motorists alike, for example, and stricter liability laws protect those on two wheels. Numbers from the world’s cycling capitals are compelling. In Denmark, 18 percent of local trips are done on two wheels, and in the Netherlands, 27 percent with virtually zero emissions.

A virtuous cycle is clear: With more infrastructure come more riders. Perhaps counterintuitively, with more infrastructure and more riders, safety improves. And the more bicycles there are traversing a city, the more it reaps numerous returns on investment, including the health benefits of cleaner air and greater physical activity.