Infrastructure in the 2020s – four predictions
Growing up in Liverpool in the 1970s, I wondered what I’d be doing at 50. I thought 50 was so old! Well, that age has suddenly hit me this year so 2020 is a milestone year and one that prompts me to think about the future as we start a new decade and face a climate emergency. So, here is what I think will happen in infrastructure in the 2020s.
Construction will be much more sustainable than it is now
Sustainable construction will be the way we work and the way we construct. Most of our homes are today still built using bricks and mortar but things are changing. Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) where the building is modular and assembled in a factory using the latest technologies and materials will be more prevalent. These homes will have built-in intelligence, driven by data, enabling the running of the home such as heating and cooling to work smarter, saving the homeowner money and lessening the impact on the environment. Only 15,000 of 200,000 homes built in the UK today are modular. We can expect this number to rise substantially over the coming years, driven by their reduced costs, the scarcity of more traditional construction skills and the demand by consumers for homes that have a Net Zero or Nearly Net Zero (NNZ) impact.
Data will help us make better use of existing infrastructure assets
It’s not all about building more and more. Using our existing infrastructure smarter will become the norm. Whether that’s Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) already in place across some highways and traffic management services or sensors in sewers to prevent flooding, infrastructure owners and managers as well as consumers will be plugged into the power of data-driven infrastructure. Already, the infrastructure sector depends on the knowledge of data programmers and analysts but as our sector increasingly handles bigger volumes of data, thousands more people will be needed to create the software and make sense of and manage the data correctly. The information generated will be used to drive continuous improvement in how existing infrastructure is used and how new infrastructure is built.
We’re moving differently already but more dramatic change is coming
The way we move from A to B is already being transformed. By the end of 2019, just one in 10 cars sold in the UK were Hybrid or Electric Vehicles (EV) however this is expected to rise substantially by 2030 when over a third of cars and vans on the road will be electric. Today, while much of the excitement is around EVs, the potential for hydrogen vehicles lies just ahead, particularly in niches such as high mileage, commercial vehicles, that are constantly in use and are too busy for a lengthy charging session. Furthermore, with the quest to improve ill health due to poor air quality, towns and cities will push to entirely remove cars from streets to be replaced by more sustainable modes of transport from light rail to much improved cycle and walking routes. Hoverboards, will they ever come? They could form part of the last mile solution in our towns and cities inspired by the work done by a number of manufacturers including Lexus with its Slide hoverboard.
More power locally
There will be a stronger emphasis on local energy management and production. Rather than the central power station which has been the dominant source of energy for the past century, the next decade will see a rapid acceleration in the building of local energy production at the town, city, village and home/business level. This will improve energy efficiency all-round and will create new ways of not just energy production but also energy storage and usage to serve the specific needs of town, cities and homes and businesses. National production will remain, but the local mix will play an increasingly important role in the UK energy mix.
Do you have predictions for how the infrastructure sector will be transformed in the next decade? I’d love to hear from you if you do.