INFORMATION ON THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET – APRIL 2024 - 01

For some time now, it seems that contradictory or pessimistic information about the entry of electric vehicles into the market has been shared with the public. Some of the main headings of the information provided by the news sources in question are as follows:

-????????????????? Toyota Develops New Internal Combustion Engines: The company's president believes that people should have a choice instead of being forced to buy EVs. Toyota sold more cars in 2023 than ever before, but electric vehicles have had little impact on this growth. Of the 11,233,039 vehicles sold by the Japanese manufacturer, only 104,018 were electric. Only 1% of the cars sold by Toyota, Lexus and other subsidiaries last year were battery electric vehicles. With this in mind, the company still thinks there is a need for internal combustion engines.? During a speech in front of 200 company executives and executives, President Akio Toyoda reaffirmed plans for a "major engine development project." His statement is in line with an announcement made at the 2024 Tokyo Auto Salon, in which he "took the opportunity to tell everyone that we will continue to build engines." During the Q&A session, Toyoda expressed his belief that EVs with batteries will never exceed a 30 percent market share, regardless of technological advancements. As a result, the remaining 70 percent will be represented by gasoline cars, hybrids, and fuel cell EVs. The head of the firm also mentioned that internal combustion engines that burn hydrogen could potentially offer a solution. (https://www.motor1.com/news/706930/toyota-developing-new-combustion-engines/ )

-????????????????? Tesla's Sales Decline: A sign that control of the electric vehicle market is slipping. Tesla's electric car sales fell in the first three months of the year, even as other automakers sold more battery-powered vehicles. (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/business/tesla-auto-sales-first-quarter.html )

-????????????????? Volkswagen's electric car sales are falling precipitously: Why Europeans are going back to gasoline : Sales of Volkswagen electric vehicles in Europe fell by almost a quarter in the first three months of the year as consumers turned to gasoline. In its latest financial update on April 10, the company announced that all-electric vehicle sales decreased by 24 percent in Europe and increased by 91 percent in China compared to the previous year. "Positive data" from China as well as South and North America led to VW's vehicle deliveries increasing by 3 percent to 2.1 million vehicles in the same quarter. However, despite these positive data and the huge increase in electric vehicle sales in China, the decline in European sales could not be completely prevented. (https://tr.euronews.com/business/2024/04/12/volkswagenin-elektrikli-otomobil-satislari-hizla-dusuyor-avrupalilar-neden-benzine-geri-do )

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As you read and hear the above lines and similar news, the perception of the people is that the process is backwards in the transition to electric cars. It is observed that it was a fashion and the impression that it will pass. According to the image, it is stated that electric vehicle sales have decreased, and the reason for this is that electric vehicles are insufficient according to the expectations of users. I would like to address this issue as to whether this is the truth, or whether there is at least some truth to what is being said, or whether it is completely false.

??According to the available data, it is not possible to say that there is any problem with automobile customers turning to electric vehicles and to confirm the above statements. When it comes to the data at hand, let's look at electric vehicle sales. Figure 1 shows the actual levels of electric car sales in world markets from 2012 to 2023. In the table below the chart, we can also see the annual sales values in the Chinese, USA and European markets, which are the 3 largest markets in the world, respectively. As can be seen, in all markets, electric cars have been expanding their market share by increasing their sales volumes since 2012. The 2024 figures consist of the projections made by the International Energy Agency from data compiled from various sources. Accordingly, the Chinese market alone is expected to cross the 10,000,000 mark in 2024. In addition, Europe, USA and other world markets are estimated to develop by about 10% each. Therefore, market expectations for 2024 seem to increase between 10% and 15% in terms of electric cars, depending on the market.

Secondly, let's try to confirm the accuracy of the evaluations made about electric vehicles biggest shock or the legend of electric vehicle is over by evaluating the sales in the first quarter of the year? . In Figure 2, we reach the 3-month sales of electric vehicle sales in each quarter of the year between 2021-2024 as the sum of all world markets. The figures in Figure 2 are? taken from the International Energy Agency's annual energy assessment reports. Accordingly, in the last 4 years, each first quarter has decreased compared to the last quarter of the previous year. We cannot find the reason for this in the relevant reports. But it is clear that there is a cycle that repeats every year. In other words, trying to make sense of the decline detected in the first quarter of the year would not be the right approach in terms of statistical science.

In Figure 3, we consider the same data in a way that gives the behavior of regional markets this time. When we look at this table, we can observe that the European and Chinese markets declined in a similar format at the beginning of all three years and then recovered and exceeded the previous one at the end of each year. In the American market, such behavior is not seen. The North American market is increasing every quarter, albeit slowly compared to others, with a steady momentum. The fact that the downward trend of the European and Chinese markets is a seasonal cycle suggests the idea of closing the year-end accounts, but I have not confirmed this.

When we look at the data in a little more detail, in Figure 4, we will consider how much electric vehicle sales have decreased compared to the last quarter of the year. Electric vehicle sales, which are seen every year compared to the last quarter, are -13.04% at the beginning of 2022; we see that it recorded a decrease of -21.21% at the beginning of 2023 and -20.93% at the beginning of 2024. In other words, the decline seen at the beginning of 2023 was about the same as in 2024. Therefore, looking at today's first quarter decline, it is not possible to say that the transition to electric vehicles in 2024 has been disrupted. On the contrary, it would be more appropriate to think that the behavior of previous years is repeated.

Finally, let's consider the decline in Europe. As it is known, many industry officials state that the interest in electric vehicles is decreasing in terms of European users. Figure 5 shows a comparison of car sales for March 2023 with data for March 2024. Accordingly, the market share of BEV, that is, battery zero-emission electric vehicles, has decreased from 13.9% to 13%. However, in the same period, the share of hybrid vehicles increases from 24.4% to 29%. In fact, if we look at the graph as follows, it is clear what the trend is: The share of both gasoline and diesel vehicles has decreased. In other words, the electrification of the market continues rapidly. In our next article, I will try to explain why the brakes are applied in this electrification process. Have a good day and lower emissions.

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