The Influence of Weather on Shopping Habits
Consumer Data Research Centre
Promoting the use of consumer data and research to provide insight into societal and economic challenges (ESRC funded)
Whether it is the sunny allure of summer or the chilly winds of winter, the weather plays a significant role in our purchasing decisions. In their research, Rose and Dolega explored this topic, shedding light on how different weather conditions impact retail sales in the UK.
The study used comprehensive daily sales data from a major high street retailer with over 2000 stores across England, available from the Consumer Data Research Centre. This data was then analysed using advanced machine learning techniques to draw meaningful insights.
Shopping habits and the weather:
The weather plays a significant role in shaping consumer purchasing behaviours, impacting various aspects of the retail sector, from stock management to sales forecasting.
One of the key findings is the seasonal variability in the influence of weather on retail sales, is most pronounced during the summer and spring months, and that among various weather conditions, wind emerged as the most influential factor affecting retail sales, followed by temperature, and precipitation having the least impact. Wind and humidity have a negative association between sales, with trends reversing at specific thresholds, whilst temperature has a positive association with sales, increasing temperature and higher sales figures.?
Different product categories respond differently to weather changes. Health foods, for instance, are highly susceptible to weather fluctuations.
Out-of-town stores have a more intricate relationship with the weather compared to traditional high street stores. Interestingly, regions like London and the South East experience the most significant weather influence on sales, whilst Yorkshire and the Humber show the least weather-dependant sales.
领英推荐
The importance of understanding weathers influence on retail habits:
Retail is a cornerstone of the UK's economy, contributing to a significant portion of its Gross Value Added (GVA) and employing millions. As the retail landscape evolves, understanding the factors that drive sales becomes crucial. While many elements influence retail sales, from economic trends to technological advancements, the weather remains a consistent and often underappreciated factor.
Incorporating weather insights into sales forecasts can offer retailers a competitive edge, since it plays a pivotal role in shaping our shopping habits. For retailers, understanding that wind affects sales more than other weather conditions and adapting to this influence to better prepare for windy days, can be instrumental to thriving in a dynamic market. As we brace for more unpredictable weather patterns in the future due to climate change, the retail sector's adaptability will be tested, making such insights even more valuable.
Publication: Rose, N., & Dolega, L. (2022). It’s the weather: Quantifying the impact of weather on retail sales.?Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy,?15(1), 189-214. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-021-09397-0
CDRC Data: High Street Retailer – Retail and Consumer Data - https://data.cdrc.ac.uk/dataset/high-street-retailer-retail-and-consumer-data-2012-2017-only?
People:
Geospatial Insight Manager at Asda
6 个月Alec Davison