The inflection point of the shrimp market have appeared, the US inventory is rapidly digested, and new demand is coming

Multiple sources believe that U.S. shrimp import prices may have bottomed out and are showing signs of rebounding.

Judging from the data in March, the import volume of shrimp in the United States decreased by 23% and 33% year-on-year respectively, and the average price fell by 13% year-on-year to $8.24/kg, but the import unit price rose by 1.85% month-on-month (source: NOAA)

Angel Rubio, an analyst at Urner Barry, a US food price portal, told UCN: "The US shrimp import industry is still in the process of normalizing. , prices may bottom out sometime this year. Next, the process of price increases may also be moderate, and this trend will gradually enter 2024. But for those producers with high borrowing costs, this year will still be difficult Yes. Similarly, importers and distributors have to face low profits.”

Rubio believes that the growing global production (especially Ecuador) is still the main factor affecting the price increase, and only through some external events, such as diseases, or sensational marketing activities, can the rapid price increase be stimulated.

Jim Gulkin, managing director of global seafood trading company Siam Canadian, noted that shrimp stocks in the U.S. are being drained rapidly.

“We’ve heard that cold storage in the U.S. is no longer at full capacity and many are actively looking for new customers. We’re approaching a point where U.S. importers, retailers and wholesalers have to think about restocking. While we’re seeing There are still some fluctuations in the price of the origin, but most of the pricing is based on or lower than the cultivation cost. Once the end market demand comes up, it will stimulate the price to rise to a certain extent. Therefore, I think that it is now the final stage of the weak market. For all intents and purposes, our prices have bottomed out," Gulkin said.

Not only that, Donelson Berger, vice president of Sea Lion International in the United States, also believes that shrimp prices have bottomed out.

"Shrimp prices have indeed bottomed out, the market is at a trade low and there are still some sellers holding 2022 stocks and selling them at discounted prices. We have a long way to go before costs and selling prices return to normal. Way to go, 2022 has a lot of stockpiling to absorb the fresh air of the market recovery," Berger said.

Alfred Nasti, U.S. shrimp sales director for BMR Seafood Group, expects a real turnaround for the shrimp market in August. At present, the United States is still generally under the pressure of economic malaise, from banking to fuel oil, from labor to consumer confidence, all aspects of the economy are under pressure. "So, I think that in general, August is when import companies start to regain their vitality."